Solar power

[redpoint5]

I was recently listening to an episode of Power Hour with an economist specializing in electricity pricing. There were many interesting revelations made about the electricity market, but one thing people don't realize is that renewables artificially drive up the cost of other generating sources.

Much (most?) of electricity production costs comes from the fixed costs of infrastructure. Since renewables can't reduce the amount of infrastructure needed, due to the need to always have generating capacity for when they aren't producing, they don't reduce fixed costs but instead increase them. If for instance, a natural gas generator might be built with the expectation of having a lifetime production of 75% of nameplate production capability. The cost of that generator is amortized over delivering those anticipated gigawatt hours.

If renewables reduce the amount of electricity generated by the plant to 35% of nameplate capacity, the full cost of the plant is spread over fewer produced gigawatt hours.

Imagine owning a $30k ICE vehicle, and you want to cut down on expenses by purchasing a $30k solar EV. You have to keep the ICE because it's already paid for, and it's needed for when the sun isn't shining or for trips outside solar EV range. Normally you would put 10k miles on it per year but instead only put 3k miles on it because the solar EV covers the other 7k. The cost per mile increases for the ICE because the purchase price is spread over fewer miles. The cost per mile for the solar EV appears to be lower since the fuel is free, but overall costs per mile have increased due to paying for 2 vehicles.

The value of electricity isn't just in producing it, it's producing it when it's demanded. How much would we pay a waiter who comes in to work whenever he feels like it vs one that works when scheduled? What would the reliable waiter think if he had to go home and get no pay whenever the unreliable waiter decided to show up?

I'm as excited as anyone for renewables to displace fossil fuels, but I'm not so naïve to dismiss the unreliable waiter problem.

[JSH]

The solution to the duck curve is energy storage. It also deals with the "unreliable waiter" problem.

It would also make sense that if a gas plant was operated at 35% of nameplate capacity instead of 75% is would last longer than the original design life.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

The solution to the duck curve is energy storage. It also deals with the "unreliable waiter" problem.

It would also make sense that if a gas plant was operated at 35% of nameplate capacity instead of 75% is would last longer than the original design life.

Storage is the only solution, and the total system cost needs to be competitive AND have zero reliance on fossil fuel plants as a backup. If fossil fuel plants need to be maintained for certain situations, then the overall system cost is more than simply having fossil fuel generation because it's adding onto infrastructure and not displacing it.

I'm no expert, but usually it's the cold starts that cause the bulk of wear on an ICE. If you maintained steady continuous operation of an ICE, it would last a very long time. Then there's age and environmental degradation that occurs with time and has less to do with use. I assume the lifetime of a powerplant has less to do with utilization and more to do with age, especially given that stuff simply becomes obsolete over time.

[RedDevil]

The clients are changing too.

Your lightbulbs, TV and internet parafernalia can't wait for whether power is available when their services are requested. But your car could avoid charging on peak power usage and tariffs, and likewise your smart fridge could vary the moment where it runs a cooling cycle.
Your appliances will over time become aware of the variations in electricity cost and adjust accordingly. This would both stabilize the grid and save you money.

Tomorrow there will be a partial solar eclipse over Western Europe. Power companies have already secured extra power delivery contracts to mitigate the drop in solar power generation during the event.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I was recently listening to an episode of Power Hour with an economist specializing in electricity pricing. There were many interesting revelations made about the electricity market, but one thing people don't realize is that renewables artificially drive up the cost of other generating sources.

Much (most?) of electricity production costs comes from the fixed costs of infrastructure. Since renewables can't reduce the amount of infrastructure needed, due to the need to always have generating capacity for when they aren't producing, they don't reduce fixed costs but instead increase them. If for instance, a natural gas generator might be built with the expectation of having a lifetime production of 75% of nameplate production capability. The cost of that generator is amortized over delivering those anticipated gigawatt hours.

If renewables reduce the amount of electricity generated by the plant to 35% of nameplate capacity, the full cost of the plant is spread over fewer produced gigawatt hours.

Imagine owning a $30k ICE vehicle, and you want to cut down on expenses by purchasing a $30k solar EV. You have to keep the ICE because it's already paid for, and it's needed for when the sun isn't shining or for trips outside solar EV range. Normally you would put 10k miles on it per year but instead only put 3k miles on it because the solar EV covers the other 7k. The cost per mile increases for the ICE because the purchase price is spread over fewer miles. The cost per mile for the solar EV appears to be lower since the fuel is free, but overall costs per mile have increased due to paying for 2 vehicles.

The value of electricity isn't just in producing it, it's producing it when it's demanded. How much would we pay a waiter who comes in to work whenever he feels like it vs one that works when scheduled? What would the reliable waiter think if he had to go home and get no pay whenever the unreliable waiter decided to show up?

I'm as excited as anyone for renewables to displace fossil fuels, but I'm not so naïve to dismiss the unreliable waiter problem.

I didn't see the price of a replacement planet figured into the calculus of establishing 'value.' Since 1957 now.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by aerohead

I didn't see the price of a replacement planet figured into the calculus of establishing 'value.' Since 1957 now.

If you missed it, my point was that claims of unreliables being cheaper than conventional base load generators is not only false, but that it also increases the cost of conventional baseload generation by amortizing their costs over a smaller quantity of generated power.

Since you brought up a different subject; I didn't see where use of conventional generators necessitates a replacement planet. While this sounds like religious dogma I can dismiss outright, I'm always looking to challenge my assumptions.

[ksa8907]

Utilities have an incredibly strange business model. On the one hand its guaranteed ROI but on the other, they're required to have as close to 100% availability as possible.

99.9% uptime for an electric utility means you have no electricity for about 9 hours every year.

They also have a financial incentive to keep assets because they increase the total value which the rate is derived from.

They make money by spending money... until they piss off the regulators with ineffective spending and get denied an increase during a rate case.

So, utilities are always very deliberate and very cautious when spending money. Typically when the public views an expense as stupid it's due to stupid laws. They're a business just playing the game someone else created.

[freebeard]

99.9% uptime for an electric utility means....

Substandard performance.

What is Five Nines? - Definition from Techopedia
https://www.techopedia.com/definition/14235/five-nines
Five nines is the term used for describing the availability of a computer or a service at 99.999 percent of the time it is required. In other words, the system or service is only unavailable for 5.39 minutes throughout the year for planned or unplanned downtime. Five nines is recommended and required for mission-critical requirements and for ...

[redpoint5]

99.9% grid uptime sounds good to me for residential service. If we don't have any more power events this year, we'll have achieved 98% uptime.

Doesn't matter much to me since power issues are common enough that we have backup generators. It's internet downtime that is more inconvenient since I can't work without it. Might have to get Starlink.

[freebeard]

Starlink has the potential to rebuild the underpinnings of Internet and return it to the users.