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Old 11-17-2009, 11:00 AM   #1 (permalink)
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We're not running out of oil -- again

Another belch from the "we're running out of oil / no we're not" perpetual motion machine.

No Peak in Oil Before 2030, Study Says

Not the first time in the past 50+ years that I've read a story about the world's oil supply, but definitely the first time I've ever read that the limitation will not be the physical amount of oil available:
Quote:
The ultimate point of the report, said Peter Jackson, the study’s main author, was to point out that while geological issues are important, future oil production will be mostly driven by the “above ground elements of the equation.”

“Looking ahead, we can see that the upstream industry faces many challenges,” the report said. “The longer-term problem lies not below ground, but in obtaining the investment and resources that the industry will need to grow supply significantly from current levels.”

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Old 11-17-2009, 11:37 AM   #2 (permalink)
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We'll run out of atmosphere to pollute before we run out of oil.
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Old 11-17-2009, 12:29 PM   #3 (permalink)
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People like us are the devil to oil barons. Sounds like a ploy to get people to use more oil.
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Old 11-17-2009, 12:42 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I believe we'll run out of money first. There'll be a point when we can't affort to use petroleum as a fuel. We'll still use oil, but to make value added products for which there are no convinient substitutes.
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Old 11-17-2009, 02:09 PM   #5 (permalink)
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...my perverse mind translates “above ground elements of the equation.” to be the refineries...can't get but only 'so much' liquid through the same diameter straw eventually.

...of course, translation #2 was: "...governments."
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Old 11-17-2009, 05:47 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Tele man View Post
...my perverse mind translates “above ground elements of the equation.” to be the refineries...can't get but only 'so much' liquid through the same diameter straw eventually."
My take would be either extraction or transportation - which is what tasdrouille alluded to. There's lots of oil that we currently have no feasable way to get out of the ground, either because it's locked into a formation that's difficult to extract from, or too dispersed within the formation to get out at prices people will pay.

- Locked in rock with no native ground pressure to drive it skyward
- Locked in formations where there's a tiny bit of oil

... and then some of those are any or all of that, and then you have ocean overtop.

People will mine tarsands in Alberta, or the plastercine oil in Venezuela ... but not if it were under 1500 feet of ocean.

That anyone's saying that the peak has been deferred doesn't sound like a stretch to me. Drilling activity was slow in Alberta for most of 2008. It was economics and changing government regulations, not that there is no longer any viable deposits to drill.
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Last edited by ChrstphrR; 11-17-2009 at 05:48 PM.. Reason: Oops, used either without the other reason...
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:51 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Steve Andrews, the co-founder of ASPO-USA, the domestic chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, said the optimism of IHS is misplaced and “irresponsible.” But his analysis also tracks with the concerns about how much the world can produce.

“In the theoretical world where Exxon could drill in Saudi Arabia, in Iran and in Iraq, as well as offshore California, you know we could get considerably higher production,” said Mr. Andrews. “But there is what we call practical peak oil. It’s the real world.”
He expects global oil supplies to reach a peak of around 92 million barrels a day sometime early in the next decade.
IHS is one with about 20 others saying the opposite.

One of the major things happening now is the fact that China and India are gearing up for driving automobiles. GM just set a record in auto sales to China.

Oil consumption is going to be through the roof in two years.
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Old 11-17-2009, 11:58 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgfpro View Post
Oil consumption is going to be through the roof in two years.
It is already. The point the article brought home to me is that the "we're running out of oil" argument appears to have finally met its demise.

That is quite a revelation for me. But then I'm old enough to remember otherwise sane, intelligent, highly educated people postulating that, because there were only so many dinosaurs, there was only so much oil, and that furthermore we were going to completely exhaust the world supply of the stuff by 1976. Or 1981. Or 19.... well, you get the idea.
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Old 11-18-2009, 02:15 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wagonman76 View Post
People like us are the devil to oil barons. Sounds like a ploy to get people to use more oil.
Oh, but thanks to oil-savers like us, the peak has shifted into the far, far future. Maybe we should burn as much oil as possible to speed things up?

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