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Old 10-19-2016, 10:53 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Autonomous cars.

Didn't surprise me but autonomous drive to me is the beginning of the end.

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Old 10-20-2016, 12:29 PM   #12 (permalink)
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We may or may not ever get to autonomous cars - but I think this is a bridge too far. Elon Musk is right about many things - but not autonomous cars.
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Old 10-20-2016, 04:37 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Right or not, it's an impressive feat.

Audi is set to release an A8 in 2018 that is autonomous upto 60km/h. Tesla does normal highway speeds now.
Google's been working on it for years. You can't buy one, probably not for years, even if you wanted that ugly snail.
In a couple of years there will be a few million Tesla's on the road that have the hardware.
It's just a matter of time. All the major brands are working on it. Tesla takes it a step further faster.

As I said: impressive!
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Old 10-20-2016, 07:47 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Tesla are playing fast and loose with their auto pilot system:



Can't imagine them being ready for full autonomous use next year. You'd think that the current system would be 100% bug free before they let it loose on much more complicated city streets.
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Old 10-21-2016, 12:49 AM   #15 (permalink)
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That van must have also been on auto pilot when it hit the car in front of it...
And the guy in the tesla sleeping.

That's the thing. It's expected to be perfect all the time. unrealistic of course.
It will reduce the number of accidents, not bring it to zero.
Did you see Tesla's video? When I see the car parking itself... it's coming along quite nicely, I'd say.
https://player.vimeo.com/video/188105076

Last edited by wickydude; 10-21-2016 at 12:50 AM.. Reason: link did not work
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Old 10-21-2016, 09:55 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Although I do enjoy driving sometimes, my commute is not one of those times. I would be happy with a future that involves something like an autonomous Uber taking me anywhere I need to go, and going to a racetrack when I want to get my fix of manual driving. The lower cost, increased safety, faster commute, and increased simplicity of not owning a car all seem worth it to me.
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Old 10-21-2016, 02:12 PM   #17 (permalink)
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People ask "You would trust a car to drive for you?!"
"More than I trust human drivers."
Do I think this is ready? One death was too many.
I hate fighting traffic, but how bad would it be if cars moved according to logic and not emotion?
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Old 10-21-2016, 03:11 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiochOG View Post
Although I do enjoy driving sometimes, my commute is not one of those times. I would be happy with a future that involves something like an autonomous Uber taking me anywhere I need to go, and going to a racetrack when I want to get my fix of manual driving. The lower cost, increased safety, faster commute, and increased simplicity of not owning a car all seem worth it to me.
Those are my thoughts as well. I used to like driving - back when I lived in Eastern Tennessee with interesting winding roads and very little traffic. The last 10 years have been in major metro areas where driving involves sitting in traffic for hours. I would happily allow a robot to drive my commute for me.

What I don't get is the idea that autonomous cars will reduce the number of cars on the road. As long as the majority of people leave for work at the same time every day and refuse to carpool the number of cars stays the same. The number of cars still has to match the peak travel volume.
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Old 10-21-2016, 03:35 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Those are my thoughts as well. I used to like driving - back when I lived in Eastern Tennessee with interesting winding roads and very little traffic. The last 10 years have been in major metro areas where driving involves sitting in traffic for hours. I would happily allow a robot to drive my commute for me.

What I don't get is the idea that autonomous cars will reduce the number of cars on the road. As long as the majority of people leave for work at the same time every day and refuse to carpool the number of cars stays the same. The number of cars still has to match the peak travel volume.
If individual ownership goes down, and autonomous software detects 3 or 4 people who live near each other are going to the same place, it would be very convenient to step out of your front door, sit down in a recliner, eat your bagel while waiting to get to work. I don't think I'd feel the need to pay $xx,xxx to own a moving room so that I don't ever have to share it with someone else, especially if nobody is driving.
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Old 10-21-2016, 07:49 PM   #20 (permalink)
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"As traffic deaths continue to decline, nine vehicles were found
to have had no fatalities for model years 2009 through 2012, while three
were found to have been involved in more than 100 deaths per 1 million
registered vehicles, according to a study from the Insurance Institute
for Highway Safety.

Of the nine safest models, six were SUVs -- Kia Sorento, Lexus RX 350,
Mercedes-Benz GL, Toyota Highlander and Sequoia and Volvo XC90. The
other fatality-free models over the four model years were the Audi A4
four-wheel-drive, Honda Odyssey minivan and Subaru Legacy sedan."

Study reveals 9 car models with zero traffic deaths

So you see, the Tesla is already one of the most dangerous cars on the road considering it's a luxury car. The above study was limited to cars with 100,000+ vehicle years only, so not many if any luxury limos would have made it in, but my guess is very few/zero people die in big Mercs and BMWs.

The video I posted earlier is an accident that a toddler could have avoided, yet I wouldn't let a toddler drive my cars.

As for traffic, any one who's been in a taxi will understand why the carpool idea won't work any better than the taxi/uber model does today. The cars will quickly get disgusting and beaten up especially if there's no human driver to offer supervision. Also people want to step outside and have their vehicle ready when they are, they don't want to wait and they don't want to be hurried if the car arrives early. Frankly, if the OEMs though car sharing would really take off they wouldn't be offering autonomous drivng as it would put a massive dent in their sales. The cost of a rental car has always been higher than owning, so I don't see how that will change unless you literally only drive once a week, while the cost of a taxi is so high that even sharing it four ways still matches private ownership.

As for traffic part 2, what autonomous cars bring is the ability to send a car home completely empty. Drive to work, why pay CBD parking rates if you can send the car home for the wife to use? Why combine errands when you can send your car to do them? The net result is that average vehicle occupancy will drop below 1. Can't find a parking space/ charge station? Let the car circle for hours on end.

Etc, etc.

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