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Old 05-08-2008, 08:29 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Of course the value of the dollar is cyclic. And the value of commodities is cyclic. But every once in a while these cycles get in phase. And when they do everyone is caught between a rock and a hard spot. If there is a safe haven, i haven't found it. During the good times people think their investments are making money, because the dollar amount is going up.
What is actually happening?


Last edited by diesel_john; 05-18-2008 at 11:43 AM..
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:16 PM   #22 (permalink)
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yeah .. however I think for gas were headed the way of 5+ dollars a gallon .. people will hopefully wake up a bit and conserve on fuel..stop buying 12 mpg cars and turcks.. that for the most part is this syndrome of , have to out doo the neighbors, most people dont have 7 people in the family to justify a suburban or other large suv.. heck most people have no more that 2 people in a car and commute only needs 1 in a car.

However i see a ton more motorcycles scooters and bikes out now thats a good thing
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:22 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Oil like other commodities in general will retrace down to at least 50% of the peak before going on the next leg up. War takes a lot of oil.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:47 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebacherville View Post
the point is that government allows this to happen.. and its effecting people.

Point is that people are financially stressed out because of there dollars not going as far for everything from food to fuel and its effecting people's habits now.
The government is allowing it to happen becuase they are trying to prevent the next great depression and they are right in doing so.

The US$ was over valued for a long time. Case in point, around 2000 a $Cdn bought around 62cents U.S.. As of today it buys around 99cents. Commodities rise and fall and right now oil like all other energy is on the rise, but oil is not $122 a barrel because of speculation, lack of refining capacity, ANWAR closed from drilling or a decline in the US$, plain and simple world demand is outpacing supply. A series of events that individually would not hurt excessively happen to be occuring all at the same time. How is that anybodies fault? I am at a loss at the point you were trying to make with your post that had the video.
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:58 PM   #25 (permalink)
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So your are saying.
37% decline in the $ vs $CAN
$122*.37=$45 of the per barrel price increase is due to devaluation of the dollar.

What percentage increase from demand?

What percentage increase from monopolies?

What percentage increase from speculation?

What percentage increase from the WAR?

FRom Duffman, A series of events that individually would not hurt excessively happen to be occuring all at the same time.

Add one more thing a nationwide crop failure and you got yourself 'the big one'.

Last edited by diesel_john; 05-08-2008 at 11:24 PM.. Reason: $ vs $CAN
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:05 PM   #26 (permalink)
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So your are saying.
37% decline in the $
$122*.37=$45 of the per barrel price increase is due to devaluation of the dollar.
That is very likely but 37% may not be the right number. The US$ moved 37% against the Cdn$ in the last 8 years but that is only one currency. What did it do against the AUS$, Yen, Rouple, Euro, Indian Rupy, Chinese? etc.

The point was that the US$ was over valued for a long time and the U.S. got a discount on international goods that is now gone. That 37% decline is not due to printing money as every western government prints money as well.
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:32 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Yep. Gas hasn't moved against most commodities at all. If the prices of wheat, eggs, vegetables, etc were posted on 3' glowing numbers 40' off the ground, people would ***** about those too. This is a DOLLAR problem, but if the sheeple rally around Hillary to steal profits from those big bad oil companies, well they deserve the government they get.

The four banger in me says "bring on $5 gas!". Fewer retards in rolling living rooms I have to deal with. On the other hand, the next time I fill up my V8 Porsche, I don't think I'm going to look at the pump display. I'll never be able to enjoy the drive after that.
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:37 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebacherville View Post
HELLO any one home... ?

the fuel prices have not risen.. you are paying the same as when gas was a quarter a gallon in 1964, that is, if you paid in silver or gold...


The problem is that your income doesn't increase as inflation does..
Which means.... the cost of fuel has risen... Inflation doesn't matter as a metric to compare income to goods. Inflation compares goods to goods as if goods are buying power, which in N. America and most of the developed world is not the case.
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:47 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Quote:
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What percentage increase from demand?
My opinion 90% of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by diesel_john View Post
What percentage increase from monopolies?
Supposedly OPEC is very near full production so there is no more supply held back.
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Originally Posted by diesel_john View Post
What percentage increase from speculation??
Speculation can only swing prices over a short period, if prices hold for 1-2 years, nearly none of it is caused by speculation.
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Originally Posted by diesel_john View Post
What percentage increase from the WAR??
Change in supply or change in consumption?
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Add one more thing a nationwide crop failure and you got yourself 'the big one'.
Good thing about being a big country, this is nearly impossible.
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Old 05-09-2008, 02:28 AM   #30 (permalink)
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I think oil's real value has slightly risen while American purchasing power has significantly declined. Viewed as a pure barter system, an American now has to pay more stuff (time, effort, goods, etc.) to buy a gallon of gas. Oil's "true" cost seems irrelevant, at least where it matters most.

This thread has made me think: Why is an American's day spent digging ditches worth more than an African's day spent digging ditches?

Like oil, the ability of someone to purchase a commodity seems arbitrary when viewed at the world-scale. Equality seems to be the slippery soap of human society. Any enlightening articles would be appreciated.

- LostCause


Last edited by LostCause; 05-09-2008 at 02:34 AM..
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