Car prices are still insane.

[Isaac Zachary]

Some YouTubers are suggesting that companies such as Ford, GM and Stelantis are creating overstock on purpose in preparation for a massive workforce strike.

[rmay635703]

The historical days of inventory was around 100 but varied greatly by season
90 days used to be considered edge of lean and too low of inventory July/august

So We still are nowhere near an excessive inventory problem

2009 Ford had 200+ days of F-series as an example . (That’s a problem)

Sounds like vehicle makers forget in the last 3 years how to sell in any market

[redpoint5]

I expect global supply chains to be like a highway. Quite efficient when everyone is flowing along. Once a car accident (WuFlu) disrupts the flow, it takes a long time to achieve flow again, even long after the wrecked car is removed.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

The historical days of inventory was around 100 but varied greatly by season
90 days used to be considered edge of lean and too low of inventory July/august

So We still are nowhere near an excessive inventory problem

2009 Ford had 200+ days of F-series as an example . (ThatÂ’s a problem)

Sounds like vehicle makers forget in the last 3 years how to sell in any market

"Days of supply stood at 56 at the end of June, up 51% from a year ago when daysÂ’ supply was 37. DaysÂ’ supply has been relatively stable for much of the year, hovering in the mid-50s. Historically, a 60-day supply across the industry was considered normal and ideal.

The Cox Automotive daysÂ’ supply is based on the daily sales rate for the most recent 30-day period ended July 3, when 1.1 million vehicles were sold, up 18% from the same period in the previous year."

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...revious%20year.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I expect global supply chains to be like a highway. Quite efficient when everyone is flowing along. Once a car accident (WuFlu) disrupts the flow, it takes a long time to achieve flow again, even long after the wrecked car is removed.

In the USA we lost production of 8 million vehicles in the last 3 years and plants are still shutting down on a regular basis due to lack of parts. We are getting there but I don't see the industry average inventory getting back to normal in 2023.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Some YouTubers are suggesting that companies such as Ford, GM and Stelantis are creating overstock on purpose in preparation for a massive workforce strike.

Within the last 3 years, as the supply chain got much disturbed in response to the Chinese flu outbreak, there were too many times the GM factory in Gravataí near my hometown Porto Alegre went on idle. Previously it used to be quite common for GM to create overstock for the econoboxes made there, yet regional exports also used to relief a considerable amount of such overstock. Odd enough, despite the hatchback bodystyle in the current generation of the Chevrolet Onix being made in Gravataí only, other places where the sedan is the only bodystyle available are sourcing the Onix for China, even Mexico where local manufacturing of the Onix was phased out in order to increase production volume for the Equinox which is now made exclusively for export...

[freebeard]

We are getting there but I don't see the industry average inventory getting back to normal in 2023.

Is there a compelling reason why it needs to? Perhaps a pause is in order until the vehicular future sorts out a bit?

[redpoint5]

If we're to reduce dependency on foreign manufacturing, especially of the Chinese sort, we need to be massively spinning up domestic production, not winding it down.

I'm not giving an opinion either way in which direction we should be spinning, just stating that demand will be met with supply from somewhere.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Is there a compelling reason why it needs to? Perhaps a pause is in order until the vehicular future sorts out a bit?

With the declining middle class in the USA I do wonder if here we'll end up like many other countries where a small upper class ends up being the main new car buyers, which puts a higher demand on used cars and makes all cars in general too expensive for the vast majority. If that happens there'll need to be vast restructuring and building out of public transportation. Otherwise people will have to be spending huge percentages of their income on transportation just to make it to work.

I know I make a little less than a median wage, but not by much. In my case, owning a single, fuel efficient $15,000 car has equated to 17.2% of my income. If my next car option were to be $30,000 then that could nearly double that. If rent is 50% of one's income and the car is over 30%, that's not going to leave much on the table for food on the table. And that is with owning only one working vehicle.

The days of finding a running car at basically any price point that's repairable are over.

[redpoint5]

The median age of a new car buyer is 53. It has always been the wealthier folks purchasing new vehicles.

Fortunately there are a lot of Boomers still around, buying cars.

While this isn't exactly what age demographics should look like (should be more pyramid shaped), it's not too bad compared to many other countries.


We're going to have new car buyers.

Median income has held on.


... I expect autonomous taxi service to be well below the cost of private vehicle ownership in about 15 years. Considering paying the driver is 75% of the Uber fee, that $20 lift to the airport becomes $5. You can't even park for a day at the airport for $5.

Very quick back-of-the-napkin estimates;

$5 ride to work and $5 ride back home 5 days per week = $2,600 / year. Even if it's twice that cost, how many people are spending less than $5,000 per year on car payments, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, car washes...? Public transportation is in it's last years, as nobody is going to ride the bus when a personal ride is $5.

[freebeard]

If we're to reduce dependency on foreign manufacturing, especially of the Chinese sort, we need to be massively spinning up domestic production, not winding it down.

I made the post at #8, but it didn't take. So here it is again:

Cathie Wood’s INSANE Prediction

When she says SAS-like model, that is software as a service.

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I do wonder if here we'll end up like many other countries where a small upper class ends up being the main new car buyers, which puts a higher demand on used cars and makes all cars in general too expensive for the vast majority.

I've lived in that world since the 1970s: