CNBC Says only racing enthusiasts buy manuals, let’s correct them

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

The extra $100,000 purchase price

Do you know approximately what capacity battery would be necessary? Would 200 kWh be sufficient for most applications?

Could the extra cost be justified by savings in fuel and maintenance? Not to mention health and noise benefits.

I can't imagine the extra cost being that high once mass production were realized.

[freebeard]

Jaguar offer a drop-in retrofit for their XKE. Bluebird could do the same.

$20,000 in parts, $40,000 to do the work, $80,000 with administrative overhead. $100,000 ask.

Sounds about right.

[redpoint5]

Retrofit is one thing, I'm talking purpose-built. Retrofit means you have the expense of the original drive train, the cost of removing it, the cost of the replacement drive train, and the cost of installing it.

Now I'm curious what the daily average number of miles driven is on a school bus, the fuel consumption, and the annual maintenance breakdown.

My WAG is that even at a $100k premium, amortizing the cost over time would make it the cheaper option.

[freebeard]

In the military (in the 1960s) they have front echelon and rear echelon maintenance.

Front echelon motor pools address daily wear and tear, then every [maintenance period] they are taken to rear echelon where they get a frame up restoration.School buses aren't discrete vehicles, they are embedded in a pupil delivery system.

New vehicles can be cycled into the fleet but they won't be replaced en mass.

In other news, Tesla holds a patent for using 4 ganged aluminum injection molding machines that can together mold a complete car monocoque body in one piece. With this, they could make a modular bus body — the short bus just the front and back ends, with sections that can be added in the center.

[redpoint5]

Factories have similar maintenance crew to fix issues on the factory floor as well as crew to perform scheduled preventative maintenance. My use of the term maintenance costs encompasses all costs associated with maintaining use of school buses.

I would expect a fleet to be replaced over time rather than a single summer break for a variety of reasons. It gives factories steady orders to fulfill, maximizes the use of the vehicles already paid for, gives maintenance crew time to retire rather than be laid off, etc, etc.

I'd like Tesla's next project be a school bus, dump truck, or package delivery van.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

Having learned to drive on a manual 6 speed schoolbus: the stop and go on a loaded clutch kills them really fast, particularly on a multiple driver set up. Bus companies feel the reduced maintenance outweighs any economic advantage.

Considering that an overwhelming majority of Brazilian urban transit buses would be considered somewhat underpowered by American standards, and even though an automatic could be more suitable to cope with the hilly terrain in the outskirts of some cities, manuals are still more common due to the lower purchase cost and fuel costs. Hilly terrain and traffic jams in many cities make it sound quite a bad decision from a management standpoint. Well, there were times when maintenance for automatic transmissions was not so great here, so it did surprise me around 16 years ago when I saw for the first time a bus with automatic transmission going through the street where the house of an uncle of mine is located, but the availability of this service has improved a lot in the meantime, not to mention some newer automatic transmissions are better suited to local conditions than previous generations. AFAIK that very same bus had its stock automatic transmission replaced by a manual one before it went to scrap, and I have already seen other buses going through the same procedure.

[jcp123]

Originally Posted by JSH

Mountains are where the DT12 and Detroit integrated drivetrain really shine. The truck has extensive maps of not just location but also topography. The truck knows where it is, what grade the road is, and what the road looks like ahead. Using this information it can optimize shift points both uphill and downhill. The front radar also tells it if there is traffic ahead

It is really hard for a human driver to beat a computer in these conditions. They would have to know the road by heart.


EDIT: Max torque is also lower - @ 975 RPM - so that likely explains it shifting at different RPMs than you are used to with a conventional manual.

Yeah we had training and literature which said as much. The mountains make that combo a real rock star, although nothing was said about peak torque coming at 975. I thought it was still at 1100, and shift logic reflects that; climbing seems to be a HP game, not a torque game. That aside, it works wonders, generally, in providing good glides. I do often take it out of cruise and force performance if I know I have a big downslope coming. It’s not perfect but boy is it overall a good hypermiler with a lot going for it in the mountains. The majority of driving leaves me with a rather eh opinion, but talking to other truck drivers, I do tell them I’d be lying if I thought it sucked completely.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Do you know approximately what capacity battery would be necessary? Would 200 kWh be sufficient for most applications?

Could the extra cost be justified by savings in fuel and maintenance? Not to mention health and noise benefits.

I can't imagine the extra cost being that high once mass production were realized.

Thomas Built Bus Saf-T-Liner: https://thomasbuiltbuses.com/school-...ner-c2-jouley/

130 mile range / 220 kWh battery

Mass production is tricky. Someone has to buy the expensive low volume models to reach mass production. Most school districts don't have the money to spend more up front even if the long term costs are the same or lower.

The largest order for the Joule so far came with the help of Dominion Energy. They paid the extra upfront cost in exchange for the school district allowing the buses to be used for Vehicle-to-Grid battery backup.

https://daimler-trucksnorthamerica.c...for-2019-12-17

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Now I'm curious what the daily average number of miles driven is on a school bus, the fuel consumption, and the annual maintenance breakdown.

My WAG is that even at a $100k premium, amortizing the cost over time would make it the cheaper option.

The average route is about 35 miles so 70 per day. 180 school days x 70 miles = 12,600 miles per year. Divide that by 5 mpg * $3 a gallon for diesel and you are spending about $7500 a year on fuel. Even with reduced maintenance that is more than a decade to break even.

[redpoint5]

Assuming an efficiency of 1.5 miles per kWh, it would cost about $840/yr for electricity.

The real exciting feature would be vehicle to grid ability to buffer the grid. If the utility could benefit from this, they could contribute to the purchase price by whatever amount their operating savings would be.

Having 300 buses with 200 kWh batteries means 60 MWh available. Would be a huge benefit to supplement peak production which occurs around 6pm.