EVs Are Great Around Town, But.......

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

I guess that is one way to look at it. Another way is the Musk knew that his ramp up plan would never involve a $35K Model 3 being sold when the tax credit was still available. He lied and promised this combination anyway to boost the number of reservations.

Unless you have a telepathic connection to Elon's mind, there is no possible way you could know he was lying; short of Elon admitting he lied.

Lying requires two things:

1. False representation
2. Intention to deceive

The end of time hasn't occurred yet, so there's no way to say he's failed to deliver a $35,000 model at an indeterminate time, so 1 is still in question.

There's no evidence Musk intended to deceive, so 2 has not been established.

If you need an example, I could say I'm going to run a 4hr marathon. If I run it in 4:15, I haven't lied. Instead I was mistaken. The only way I'd be lying is if I never intended to attempt a 4hr marathon.

I'm not saying people have no right to be bitter about how things have turned out so far, but saying Elon lied is baseless.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

Des it have to be new or is she ok with used?

A lease turn in will be sufficient.
To me they are practically new cars, for about half the price of new.

[Snax]

That's what I decided. My 2015 i3 is essentially like new. It was well taken care of or very well cleaned, and smelled and looked new in every respect save for some very minor paint blemishes. It feels 100% like a new car to me, but somebody else took the $35k of depreciation! (Okay, probably BMW really, but you get the point.)

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The end of time hasn't occurred yet, so there's no way to say he's failed to deliver a $35,000 model at an indeterminate time, so 1 is still in question.

At the Model 3 launch Elon Musk said: "Deliveries will be next year" and "The price will be $35,000" Within a week 325K people had put down a deposit.

Any reasonable person would expect to be able to buy a $35,000 Model 3 in 2017 when the full $7,500 tax credit was in effect.

Musk failed to deliver what he promised.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

There's no evidence Musk intended to deceive, so 2 has not been established.

I'm a lowly engineer and even I know the product launch schedule and when various models and trims will go into production 3 years ahead of time. If you believe Musk, the CEO of the company, didn't know that the base model $35,000 version would go into production after Tesla used all of their federal tax credits I have bridge to sell you.

[Isaac Zackary]

I'm with @redpoint5 on this one. Musk may have lied. But I'm not judge whether he did or not. Let everyone think whatever they want. I probably won't be getting a Tesla any time soon. But I'm kind of glad someone is doing what Tesla is doing, whether they lied or not.

Hey, we could still be in a world where your only choice is either gasoline or diesel. Or maybe just gasoline and nothing else. I'd like to see more CNG and propane cars and some steam powered cars and maybe a few that have gas turbine engines or rotary engines or sterling engines or opposed piston engines and some cars that run on liquid nitrogen or wood gas. But when you're limited to just one fuel and one type of engine, it's kind of hard to see what's truly better and to see what can actually be done with technology.

"Is the Nissan 4 cylinder gasoline car better than the Honda 4 cylinder gasoline car?"

[RedDevil]

I think Musk did not expect the automation problems on the Model 3 production line, nor the initial battery production problems in the Gigafactory, nor the supplier problems.
If that had all worked out to plan they'd put out more than double what they put out now, and the economy of scale would have made the $35.000 model viable by then already.

Of course, as long as the market readily soaks up the top range Model 3's it makes no sense at all to build base models yet. But they will be built once the premium market falls below Model 3 production capacity.

[JSH]

You are arguing both sides RedDevil. Which is it? Telsa isn't selling $35,000 Model 3's because Musk is incompetent or he isn't selling the $35,000 model because the $50,000 model is still selling?

[redpoint5]

If Elon is incompetent, I don't know who would qualify as competent.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Snax

The credit was definitely written to benefit higher wage earners who itemize.

That was the point, though. Higher wage earners (and outright rich folks) are the ones who a) have the money to spend on expensive new cars; and b) would be willing to risk it on something that might have proved to be unworkable.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

You are arguing both sides RedDevil. Which is it? Telsa isn't selling $35,000 Model 3's because Musk is incompetent or he isn't selling the $35,000 model because the $50,000 model is still selling?

The problems Tesla ran into were no sign of incompetence. You simply cannot make progress without taking risks. You cannot iron out every detail beforehand. All you need is to know what you want to achieve, and systematically work to get there, learning and improving while doing so.

Tesla first ensured the product was conceptually sound before ironing out the production problems. Issues like panel gaps and paint quality aren't exactly rocket science, they are not inherent to the design; so those will get sorted out.

The other part of the equation is demand.
Demand for the high end versions is much higher than expected, as they basically don't have much competition yet - that is a sign of incompetence in all could-be competitors, definitely not Musk.
As long as demand for the high end versions exceeds production capacity it makes no sense to retool for the base model. I hope you can see that.