Finally, TV ads for Chevy Silverado EV

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

None of that explains selling EVs now when you don't have to. I expect them to lose money like all the non-Teslas. The mandate will turn into a suggestion before 2035.

As I added above - different manufacturers are in different places with ZEV credits. Then there is also CAFE to consider - and emissions. Of those emission are the only real mandate with ZEV and CAFE a company can chose to pay the fine instead of meeting the regulation.

There is nothing magical about how Tesla makes money with EVs - they sell enough to get over the hump and have enough economy of scale to make money on EVs. Other companies have started making the investments needed to get to that point.

Then there is the effect of the global market. The USA is way behind China and Europe on EV and PHEV adoption. Companies that participate in those markets can draw on that R&D and volume to reach that break even point and then profitability

Until very recently GM's largest market was China. China is fast approaching 50% BEV / PHEV market share for new vehicle sales. That helps them with EV profitability in the USA and they must either aggressively pursue EVs or pull out of China and lose 1/2 their sales.

A company like Ford is in a different spot. The have almost fully pulled out of China already and in Europe they are using VW platforms to make their EVs. That doesn't help them much in the US market.

A company like Toyota's largest markets are Japan and the USA. The USA is slow to adopt EVs and Japan so for has no intention to do so. So Toyota has little interest in selling EVs today.

Different market positions / different business decisions.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by JSH

No automaker is going to abandon 30 - 40% of the US new car market but some might decided to just buy credits or pay the $5,000 fine for every ZEV they miss the target.

And that's most likely why affordable cars will never make a comeback

[Piotrsko]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

And that's most likely why affordable cars will never make a comeback

Define affordable.

To some people AWD Lamborghini or purple painted cybertrucks are affordable. To some, whatever the monthly repayment schedule buys, others it is a 15 year old junker from a friend.
I'm guessing your version of affordable is much different from mine.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

My wife likes you and she hasn't even met you. TDI pruchase was hilarious, sales idiot kept saying "monthly payments of", and we kept saying "one big check". Finally got pissed off enough to ask for manager who gave me the same routine. Eventually the light came on when we got up to leave without the sale..

* It's funny! Like some alien concept that they just can't wrap their head around.
When I bought the CRX I took cash to the dealer, and counted out the full amount, plus tax, title & registration.
* Best I can tell, 'Home Economics' is no longer offered by public schools in the USA. State-level lobbyists for the finance industry may be able to take credit for that.
* Parts, Labor, Interest, and Finance Charges seem to be the sales objectives for a dealership. The 'vehicle' is just there to get you through the door.
I ended up paying 147% for the Chevy. But hey! The salesperson had a bright smile, warm handshake, and low under-arm odor.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

And that's most likely why affordable cars will never make a comeback

Cars in the USA are cheaper today than 30 years ago after adjusting for inflation when you compare like to like.

The steadily increasing average real transaction cost is mostly people moving to different classes of vehicles. Companies make what customers buy. Cheap basic cars do not sell in a volume worth making the investment.

[redpoint5]

Seems odd that Japan isn't all EV by now. Perfect climate, and the island imposes range restrictions and not the EV.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Seems odd that Japan isn't all EV by now. Perfect climate, and the island imposes range restrictions and not the EV.

Those are some positives. Negatives:

Japanese manufacturers are arguably the best in the world making internal combustion engines. Honda is a engine manufacturer first / vehicle manufacturer second. Why abandon a market you are leading.

Japanese cities are very dense. A lot of parking is multi-level which makes Level 2 charging difficult

Japan is reliant on imported fuels for power generation. The recent shuttering of nuclear plants mean they are increasing use of fuel oil and coal to generate power.

[Piotrsko]

In addition to JSH's comments about the makers specialty, going all electric would require increasing the countries electrical infrastructure possibly a hundred fold, necessitates a massive infrastructure increase the likes never imagined. My basic thoughts: solar panels instead of roofing, pico nukes generation every block, sucking up all the copper supplies in the total world just to make the vehicles showing no mention of connecting them to infrastructure......

Ain't gonna happen for a long long while

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

In addition to JSH's comments about the makers specialty, going all electric would require increasing the countries electrical infrastructure possibly a hundred fold, necessitates a massive infrastructure increase the likes never imagined. My basic thoughts: solar panels instead of roofing, pico nukes generation every block, sucking up all the copper supplies in the total world just to make the vehicles showing no mention of connecting them to infrastructure......

Ain't gonna happen for a long long while

The required increase in power generation to transition to EVs is GREATLY exaggerated. Adding an EV to a household is let power intensive than when we added A/C decades ago.


The USA has been added an average 12 GW of distributed power generation per year between 2000 and 2020. Below are the EV power requirements from the DOE for their different EV adoption ratios. (High would be 95% EVs in 2050)

[redpoint5]

One EV in a US household that drives a 12,000 miles per year (which EVs average fewer miles than ICE) consumes about 4,000 kWh of electricity, or perhaps 1/3rd of the overall household consumption.

Japanese commuters would be traveling far fewer miles, and thus the need to quickly recharge is diminished.

The most probable explanation is likely that Japan is the leading ICE manufacturer, and therefore that's what they use.

Seems crazy Japan isn't gung-ho on nuclear considering that would allow them more energy independence. They had the 2nd worst nuclear disaster, which killed zero people. Learn from it and use better designs.