Gas prices in 2012? At least $4?

[Arragonis]

The countries which have the greatest problem with population growth are those countries where the rate of chilbirth mortality and infant mortality are the greatest, and where there are issues with malnutrition. Solve those issues and the rate of population growth slows to become low enough to be sustainable.

To some extent I agree with Frank that this requires a solution outside of any influence of the church - whatever the denomination.

The problems with population in the first world are overwhelmingly due to an ageing population and not because of rampant childbirth (que someone bringing up a photo of a family with 18 kids and wanting more...) - the average age of our countries continues to rise as does the challenge of supporting the older folks in terms of income and medical care.

Immigration, despite what some politicians would have you believe, is not a major factor.

[Ladogaboy]

In the United States, I would counter that immigration *can* be a factor. The U.S. "culture" promotes one or two children; however, many of the immigrant cultures promote many children. This comes as a result of either an impact of the church (as Frank pointed out) or an over reaction because the country of origin restricted child births (both governmental and environmental restrictions). There is a reason why the Latino population in Southern California went from a minority to a majority in one generation. By the way, I'm not trying to judge, here; I'm just making an observation.

[Arragonis]

True, however two things spring to mind on this (I have no evidence to hand though...)

- The numbers of newcomers as a proportion of the size of the population already there is not significant enough to make a hige difference. It may in some areas where newcomers seek out established communities of their own origin, but not nationally - You wouldn't be able to blame immigration into the country specifically for a town expanding for example. Poeple do move around the US more than in Europe.

- Immigrants tend to absorb a lot of the culture of the country they move to - e.g. Asian (for us that is Indian sub-continent not just Oriental) families have adopted the 1-2 kids approach or having kids later once they are established for the most part at least after 1/2 generations - at least that is my experience from my in-law family (Mrs A is of Indian origin).

[UFO]

Filled my pickup for less than $3 a gallon. Record low price.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

Solve those issues and the rate of population growth slows to become low enough to be sustainable.

Not so. ANY amount of population growth is unsustainable, because the current population is already roughly 10 times what is sustainable.

The problems with population in the first world are overwhelmingly due to an ageing population...

Again no. This is just the result of cultural stereotypes that label people as "old" when they hit 65 or so, and convince most of them that they ought to retire and live on a pension.

Just for an example, I have two neighbors. Looking at them, you'd say they're about the same age & general health. One retired at age 65 a couple of years ago, and spends his time watching TV & drinking beer. The other was still working part-time up to a couple of years ago (and may still be) as a mining geologist, and still does gardening & yard work at 97.

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Not so. ANY amount of population growth is unsustainable, because the current population is already roughly 10 times what is sustainable.

On what basis ?

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Again no. This is just the result of cultural stereotypes that label people as "old" when they hit 65 or so, and convince most of them that they ought to retire and live on a pension.

Just for an example, I have two neighbors. Looking at them, you'd say they're about the same age & general health. One retired at age 65 a couple of years ago, and spends his time watching TV & drinking beer. The other was still working part-time up to a couple of years ago (and may still be) as a mining geologist, and still does gardening & yard work at 97.

Absolutely agree - however keeping people healthy beyond a certain age starts to cost - hip and knee replacements and so on. I'm not against people ageing or against spending money on them - its a delight people live so long and are active for far longer - 200 years ago people my age were mostly dead.

And we also have to pursuade those people they have to work longer, which is not so easy sometimes.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

On what basis ?

A rough estimate, of course, based on things like degradation of farmlands, conversion of forest/grassland to farm/grazing, then to desert, dependence of agriculture & food distribution on rapidly-diminishing supplies of petroleum, the percentage of the population forced to live in the human equivalent of cattle feedlots (AKA cities), etc.

[Ladogaboy]

OR, if you want to base it on what is actually sustainable in terms of energy usage: The population was fairly stable at < 2 billion people up until ~100 years ago. I don't know that (sans fossil fuels, let's say) this population is sustainable. And in terms of environmental impact, our current population levels have lead to many extinctions and the elimination of many natural habitats. I'd say that we are, for sure, far beyond the normal carrying capacity for our species.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

ANY amount of population growth is unsustainable.

Good catch.

Originally Posted by Arragonis

On what basis?

On the basis that nothing is sustainable, not even zero population growth. The problem of sustainability is compounded by the extrodinary power of exponential growth, which is what a growth rate is.

Here is a very interesting video I recommend, despite the title given by the poster:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

[Arragonis]

@ Redpoint, Lagoda and James - I agree with what you are tapping about sustainability. I don't believe we are at that limit yet but it is inevitible at some time in the future.

Accepting that we differ on the timing the question has to become what to do about it - assuming we are not all going to run for the hills with loads of tinned food and ammo which is also not a sensible long term plan