"High gas price amnesia" is setting in again

[redneck]

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"Peak oil" and "known"



LOL... I thought those words might ruffle a few feathers around here.

Niky, thanks for giving and reiterating the boilerplate explanation given by the industry,financial district and talking heads of the media as to why oil prices are where they're at for others here.

It is to me however, at the point of ad nauseam.

Peak oil ain't simply us using up all the oil there is. That's impossible. We will simply edge closer and closer to peak oil before it becomes too expensive for anyone to want to dig up more of it.

Agreed, however "I believe" that is still a long, long, long way off.

And secondly, all known oil reserves are in decline.

That depends on how one defines "known".

Known to whom...???

You and I...???

Or...

The so called "experts" and "media"...???


I would tend to think that the industry believes that any new and or possibly old reserves that they found, therefore "known", are on a need to know basis. And that you, I and the rest of the world doesn't need to know. Therefore they are not included in the "known" reserves. This information is held in house, tight to the vest and controlled by strict non disclosure contracts. If oil was known to be plentiful instead of declining, people wouldn't be as willing to go along with paying more. One only needs to turn to the De Beers model of marketing to understand the reasoning behind it.



Old Mechanic

In any position you read about, it's important to read things like "KNOWN" to really understand the true contentof the in formation provided. Unbiased sources are rare today but that (agenda driven sources) has been around many thousands of years before my time.

The eastern US is much cleaner than it was in my childhood. Maybe I'll be able to dig clams in Back River again.

I remember well the Niagara River and surrounding area before the "Clean Air and Water acts" of the early 70's. They're the only government sponsored acts that actually did something good that I can think of. The water was green, stunk and who knows what was in it (really, really bad stuff). Today it is clean, clear and a world class fishery again.

I hope you get to clam again...



>

[freebeard]

darcane --

Small cars took it on the chin last month

Not from the article?

Your right about the political aspect to pricing though. The Islamic State is undercutting everyone; but they are advertising for oil executives (but aren't paying well) since they found out threatening to behead your family doesn't really cut it with oil executives. No citation link while I'm on this pokey machine.

redneck -- The narrow-mindedness is in focusing on petroluem.

Cool Planet | Biochar CoolTerra™ and Green Renewable Fuels
www.coolplanet.com/

[niky]

Originally Posted by redneck

I would tend to think that the industry believes that any new and or possibly old reserves that they found, therefore "known", are on a need to know basis. And that you, I and the rest of the world doesn't need to know. Therefore they are not included in the "known" reserves. This information is held in house, tight to the vest and controlled by strict non disclosure contracts. If oil was known to be plentiful instead of declining, people wouldn't be as willing to go along with paying more. One only needs to turn to the De Beers model of marketing to understand the reasoning behind it.

Here's the problem.

By convincing people your oil is in very limited supply, you are only convincing them to buy from other suppliers.

Or to support drilling projects by new suppliers... outside your country. Maybe you are sponsoring those drilling projects, but much of that profit goes to the territory where they're set up.

No. What you want people to believe is that your reserves are boundless and steady, so that investors and speculators keep betting on you.

This is the Saudi tactic. This has been, since time immemorial. People harping on the finiteness of Saudi wells are having a hard time getting concrete numbers on reserve estimates. The Saudis don't want to give out that information, and simply keep repeating "everything is fine, we've got enough oil to go on and on and on..."

The idea of an end to Middle Eastern oil does not help the countries giving out those figures, at all. So why fabricate negative numbers? Why give people more impetus to turn to US and Canadian alternative sources?

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Instead, it is in the oil industry's best interests to assure people that they have lots of oil. And after that, to constrain the supply just enough to keep prices at a profitable level. And, after that, to keep supply high enough to keep prices down at a level where they don't suffer from low sales.

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That price point for OPEC is around the $100 a mark. At the current $80 a barrel, they're suffering... most of them... but big players like Saudi Arabia can live with it. During the 2008 bust, oil prices were at a record high... but the producers weren't happy, because not a lot of people can afford $130 a barrel oil... so that ended up hurting them, too.

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TLR: Oil producers will tend to report reserves and production numbers that help establish (their) market equilibrium. They will not under-report reserves because that makes investor money evaporate. They will sometimes cite political unrest elsewhere, or supply shortfalls caused by other oil producers' problems, but they will never, ever short themselves on purpose.

[darcane]

Originally Posted by freebeard

darcane --


Not from the article?

Yes... but your claim is still bogus.

Small cars are just a small part of "light vehicles". Just because they dropped doesn't negate the fact that light vehicle sales are up.

[redneck]

.

Niky,

I'm done.

We just have a difference of opinion. That's all.


I hope you have a great day on your side of this big blue ball...




I'm taking a break and going fishing with a friend today.





Life just doesn't get much better.

In my opinion...




>

[niky]

Not arguing.

Merely pointing out:

Oil barrels ain't blood diamonds. People will absolutely, happily accept substitutes from Malaysia, Canada or the US of A.

If you follow the money... there's no profit in telling people your salt mine is about to run out of salt.

What you tell them is that your salt is still the best. And the cheapest.

And that this current shortage is merely a production line constraint.

[user removed]

Yo redneck and Nicky, you are both right, which is totally possible and something that should be better understood.

Pop told me a long time ago, many decades, that we need to pump the middle east dry and hang onto our reserves.

Do we really know what oil is left? I doubt we are even close, especially when the price passes $80 a barrel.

What tires me more than most is scare tactics that PRESUME I am incapable of rational judgement. I'd like to PUMP THEM DRY.

regards
mech

[niky]

Oh... we're going to get there.

Once WTI is back to $100, the tappable American reserves are going to look like a vast ocean compared to the middling sea they are now.

[user removed]

I think in Saudi Arabia, at one time, water was more expensive than oil. They have one export product, one chance to finance their economy for the rest of their existence. Their only hope is to use that asset very carefully. Maybe solar energy could be their future.

As far as oil and proven reserves versus potential, as yet undiscovered reserves, my thinking is there is probably much more potential supply, however I would like to see more competition for petroleum based energy economies. I think the transition will take a significant amount of time, probably beyond my lifetime.

regards
mech

[MetroMPG]

Sales of trucks, SUVs surge, with lower gas prices

Mechanicsville Toyota near Richmond, Va: year-to-date light-truck sales are up 5 percent while car sales are down 5 percent.

[...]

Data from KBB.com show that Toyota boosted Prius incentives to $2,300 per vehicle in September from $1,400 a year ago while Ford ramped up C-Max spiffs to $4,900 from $2,650 per vehicle in the same period; neither move helped sales.

Source: http://www.rubbernews.com/article/20...wer-gas-prices

I guess that's what happens when automakers decide that "fuel economy" is a feature that they charge extra for.