The hybrid ticking time bomb

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

How your parents owned cars has never been the normal way. Most people would never rebuild an engine or transmission. Sure there are some people with that knowledge but most people don't have it and have no interest in learning it.

Odd. Must be a family thing. I rebuilt the VW bug engine. My sister's first car was a 1973 Malibu she rebuilt the engine. My brother has rebuilt the engine on his 1985 Chevy Truck. I distinctly remember Grandpa's car having over 400,000 miles on it and the family car said to have over 300,000.

Originally Posted by JSH

Yes, a hybrid would be worth it. You would be thousands in the black on fuel savings alone by the time the hybrid battery was out of warranty.

According to my calculations if the average is $4.50 per gallon of gasoline for the next 8 and a half years, then I'd save $3,100 by the time the 150,000 mile battery waranty will have expired. But if fuel prices stayed the same at current fuel prices ($3.26) it would be only $1,075 savings when the battery warranty expires.

That doesn't account for higher resale value though.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I'm very fortunate to have such a good father, but he never leveraged his skill potential in the labor market and distracted himself by tinkering on projects with varying levels of importance...

I think work is important, but so is doing what you love. Some people I know only work and have zero time for their families or for doing anything else. It's better to work to live than to live to work. Sure, they might own their own house, but they're never in it except to sleep. Yes, there needs to be balance. It can't be all play and no work either.

I like working on cars, I find it relaxing. Unless it's the Avalon's radio, then it's downright frustrating. I mean, yeah, a person may not save very much money fixing up an old beater, especially when you factor in time. But that's time a father can spend with his son, for an example. You usually can't just take your son to work and do the same thing.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Odd. Must be a family thing. I rebuilt the VW bug engine. My sister's first car was a 1973 Malibu she rebuilt the engine. My brother has rebuilt the engine on his 1985 Chevy Truck. I distinctly remember Grandpa's car having over 400,000 miles on it and the family car said to have over 300,000.

For my family it was a poverty thing. Both my parents grew up in rural areas without a lot of money. If you don't have the money to pay someone to fix something you have to learn to fix it yourself. But of course they also lived in rural areas where they had land and garages and tools. As I mentioned before the vast majority of people live in cities and most poor urban dwellers aren't living in single family homes with a garage or driveway to work on cars.

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

According to my calculations if the average is $4.50 per gallon of gasoline for the next 8 and a half years, then I'd save $3,100 by the time the 150,000 mile battery waranty will have expired. But if fuel prices stayed the same at current fuel prices ($3.26) it would be only $1,075 savings when the battery warranty expires.

That doesn't account for higher resale value though.

Even assuming 100% highway driving the savings are more than that.

2022 Toyota Camry - 39 mpg highway: 150,000 miles / 39 mpg x $3.25 per gallon = $12,500 for fuel. Or $0.083 per mile

2022 Toyota Camry Hybrid - 53 mpg highway: 150,000 / 53 x 3.25 = $9199 for fuel. Or $0.061 per mile.

So $3,301 in savings over 150K miles or $0.022 per mile for the fraction you own a used Camry hybrid before the warranty expires.

Add in some city miles at 51 mpg vs 28 mpg racks up the savings pretty quick.

[redpoint5]

Dad didn't avoid being a workaholic to spend time with the family though. He tinkered on other projects with his time off. I tend to do the same thing; fixing broken irrigation or something instead of playing with dolls with my daughter. When I spend time with the family, it's usually something I want to do like go for a drive, or take the canoe out on the lake, or ride bikes.

Most families have a much higher income than Dad because the breadwinners achieve something above an entry level job sometime in their working careers. They own newer cars that don't need to be worked on. They take vacation with the family because they don't have to work on cars and have some disposable income. My dad stopped working at about age 55 when offered 2 years salary to retire early. He never got a job after that, which isn't good considering older people tend to be at more risk for health problems and need the insurance provided by employment.

I won't speak for others, but there's no way I would accept the excuse from my dad that he wanted to spend more time with the family (and he'd probably be fairly honest about why he didn't achieve much in the way of a career). Certainly he wanted to tinker. If he were wise he'd have leveraged his tinkering ability in the labor market. He'd have made an awesome maintenance man.

I'm fortunate to have fallen into a career field that leverages a significant enough portion of my interests to make a better living. I could and should make a lot more though by really being honest about how I use time and how I could best leverage my interests and ability. I've got the same aversion to holding authority as my dad, and I suspect that's because we're more aware than most of the responsibility it requires.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

For my family it was a poverty thing. Both my parents grew up in rural areas without a lot of money. If you don't have the money to pay someone to fix something you have to learn to fix it yourself. But of course they also lived in rural areas where they had land and garages and tools. As I mentioned before the vast majority of people live in cities and most poor urban dwellers aren't living in single family homes with a garage or driveway to work on cars.



Even assuming 100% highway driving the savings are more than that.

2022 Toyota Camry - 39 mpg highway: 150,000 miles / 39 mpg x $3.25 per gallon = $12,500 for fuel. Or $0.083 per mile

2022 Toyota Camry Hybrid - 53 mpg highway: 150,000 / 53 x 3.25 = $9199 for fuel. Or $0.061 per mile.

So $3,301 in savings over 150K miles or $0.022 per mile for the fraction you own a used Camry hybrid before the warranty expires.

Add in some city miles at 51 mpg vs 28 mpg racks up the savings pretty quick.

I was adding the additional cost for a NEW Corolla of some $3,500 more to the MSRP for the hybrid version vs the non-hybrid version. $3,300-$3,500 means it would be $200 more to own the hybrid from new to warranty.

I'll look at used prices for the sake of comparison, but the last time I looked a 5-year-old used Toyota hybrid cost just as much as a brand new one, because covid.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I'll look at used prices for the sake of comparison, but the last time I looked a 5-year-old used Toyota hybrid cost just as much as a brand new one, because covid.

So yes, I was right. Looking at Autotempest the cheapest Corolla hybrid in the nation with less than 60,000 miles on it is $22,500. The next one up is $24,000. The next one up is $25,000, more than base MSRP on a brand new one. The cheapest ones are around $20,000 and will have either 150,000 or more miles on them or a salvage title.

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by JSH

How your parents owned cars has never been the normal way. Most people would never rebuild an engine or transmission. Sure there are some people with that knowledge but most people don't have it and have no interest in learning it.

Reflecting further on this, I think this is being seen across a wide range of things. The world is becoming complex to the point where individuals can't really interact with that complexity. I still assemble computers, because I got into computers during a time where they were configurable and repairable, and there was money to be saved by doing so. Anymore, desktops are ancient and nobody wants them, and internal components are soldered and non-upgradable. Phones are glued together which makes them waterproof, but you destroy them if you try to take them apart to replace a battery. Appliances are basically the same.

There are a lot of good reasons this is becoming the case. Products require less maintenance, the packaging is better, they're cheaper, more efficient, and more capable. For the average consumer's perspective there are essentially no downsides. Maybe I need to find new hobbies.

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I'll look at used prices for the sake of comparison, but the last time I looked a 5-year-old used Toyota hybrid cost just as much as a brand new one, because covid.

As you note, the market is in chaos right now. 5 year old vehicles will not remain more expensive than their new counterparts. The correct response is to either 1) buy new now, or 2) wait until used vehicles return to a sensible value.

[freebeard]

Wow, thirteen Permalinks in 2 hours. Did I miss anything?

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by Ecky

Reflecting further on this, I think this is being seen across a wide range of things. The world is becoming complex to the point where individuals can't really interact with that complexity. I still assemble computers, because I got into computers during a time where they were configurable and repairable, and there was money to be saved by doing so. Anymore, desktops are ancient and nobody wants them, and internal components are soldered and non-upgradable. Phones are glued together which makes them waterproof, but you destroy them if you try to take them apart to replace a battery. Appliances are basically the same.

There are a lot of good reasons this is becoming the case. Products require less maintenance, the packaging is better, they're cheaper, more efficient, and more capable. For the average consumer's perspective there are essentially no downsides. Maybe I need to find new hobbies.

I love fixing and tinkering on computers too, even to the point of soldering some components. But yes, this is not a career to get into right now. Everything is moving to SOC's where everything will be on one chip (hence "system on chip"). My guess is that in 10 years all computers will be non-repairable. There's even a push to get rid off all ports entirely, so you won't even need to solder on a USB port or similar.