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Old 05-06-2009, 11:24 AM   #141 (permalink)
Ernie Rogers
 
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I'm still here

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Originally Posted by Jim Bullis View Post
What happened to the Ernie Rogers that argued for a 40% adjustment for the efficiency of the power plant that made the electricity?

That does not fall in the category of a complication; it is a huge difference that puts some degree of realism into the comparisons.
Hello, Jim,

Yes, I'm still here, and I agree that it's unfair to the gassers to ignore energy lost at the power plant and in wires.

Ernie

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Old 05-06-2009, 01:21 PM   #142 (permalink)
Ernie Rogers
 
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Hello, DCB,

The numbers given by Robert Smalls at the top of page 14 are quite reasonable, and I would recommend them.

You said--

Quote:
Though the tesla wh/mi numbers don't jibe with the current site figures of 110 wh/mi (which I also arrived at by looking at the charger specifications)...
In the table you gave, the number is given as 110 Wh /km. Note the inconsistency in units. So, maybe you can clarify that for us.

Ernie Rogers
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:39 PM   #143 (permalink)
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Yup, that is in km, not miles. My bad. We will need to start another thread to fix the measurement systems next
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Old 05-21-2009, 01:15 AM   #144 (permalink)
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Got Data?

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Originally Posted by dcb View Post
If this is the basis for your position then please provide a source. And why you think it is more than a temporary phenomenon.

Also note the energy costs per mile are more like 30 times more expensive for gas (in 2007 terms) as I mentioned in a later post. 2.8 was just the btu for btu * average cost for electric vs gas. When you factor in the inefficiencies of the gas engine the cost per mile go much higher.

So maybe "cost" isn't the right term for the comparison you want to make. Sales? maybe, but that has as more to do with marketing and the state of the economy than anything else, and the good margin vehicles get the marketing dollars. And the good margin vehicles are the ones they already know how to make. No conspiracy, just business.

But lets keep our terms straight. Cost per mile there is no comparison with EV, Sales there is no comparison with Gas. They are not the same thing however, and nothing is written in stone.

dcb,
Sorry for this slow reply
since the lack of EVs on the planet was not proof enough that EVs have more "costs" than you are using in your calculations
I have been keeping an eye out to find data you might believe
and I think I have found a convincing bit of evidence
check out the Miles EV Savings calculator
Miles Electric Vehicles

select "savings calculator tab"
with $2 gas and the cost of batteries check box(can't forget their carbon foot print/cost/effect)
I input my gasser milage of 25 mpg (hardly a top performer)

and Tah Dah! virtually the same cost per mile

This is not a conclusive or comprehensive argument I know
but... now since you have forced me to defend my gasser at the expense of EVs - which does pain my conscience

you must at least be willing to see the consumer is not missing out on a 30:1 cost savings for EVs

in fact for me to break even on cost alone - there has to be over $2 a gallon gas
never mind the inconvenience or performance penalty (25 mph max!)

and I think the summer of 2008 and +$4 a gallon gas proved this very well
preaching EVs will not move the masses - but costs do

(all that a side I really would like a Miles truck - if i could just get it tagged)
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Old 05-21-2009, 02:15 AM   #145 (permalink)
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Calculator left out engine cost

The calculator allows you to figure in the cost of batteries with a finite life. It DOES NOT allow you to add in the cost of the other item with a finite life, the gasser engine. If we say engine and batteries have the same life, and the engine + maintenance = battery cost, then we can just look at costs of fuels.

I calculated energy consumed by a plug-in Prius running on gas only and running on electricity only. Here are the results

Prius engine at 29% efficiency............48.2 mpg (at 60 mph)
Prius electric at 70% efficiency...........3.42 miles per kWh

All other characteristics are the same.

At $2 /gallon..............$0.041 /mile
at $0.10 /kWh.............0.029 /mile

Relative costs: 1.4 times.

Didn't we already go through this? Ernie Rogers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Concrete View Post
dcb,
Sorry for this slow reply
since the lack of EVs on the planet was not proof enough that EVs have more "costs" than you are using in your calculations
I have been keeping an eye out to find data you might believe
and I think I have found a convincing bit of evidence
check out the Miles EV Savings calculator
Miles Electric Vehicles

select "savings calculator tab"
with $2 gas and the cost of batteries check box(can't forget their carbon foot print/cost/effect)
I input my gasser milage of 25 mpg (hardly a top performer)

and Tah Dah! virtually the same cost per mile

This is not a conclusive or comprehensive argument I know
but... now since you have forced me to defend my gasser at the expense of EVs - which does pain my conscience

you must at least be willing to see the consumer is not missing out on a 30:1 cost savings for EVs

in fact for me to break even on cost alone - there has to be over $2 a gallon gas
never mind the inconvenience or performance penalty (25 mph max!)

and I think the summer of 2008 and +$4 a gallon gas proved this very well
preaching EVs will not move the masses - but costs do

(all that a side I really would like a Miles truck - if i could just get it tagged)
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Old 05-21-2009, 08:52 AM   #146 (permalink)
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Concrete, I'm only looking at consumer fuel costs in this post here, not maintenance or taxes for defence budgets or any other funny business. And you do not acknowledge the role of inertia in the market place. It takes gas going over $4 because that is what it takes to get enough attention to get a noticable number of consumers to change, because they arent sitting around the dinner table with their calculators and doing energy source analysis fretting about the cost per mile all the time waiting to react by dumping their old cars. In some ways it is a good thing, imagine the race to the bottom every product would suffer if consumers were paying that much attention to everything

P.S. That site did not load correctly under ubuntu/firefox.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie Rogers View Post
...
Prius engine at 29% efficiency............48.2 mpg (at 60 mph)
Prius electric at 70% efficiency...........3.42 miles per kWh

All other characteristics are the same.

At $2 /gallon..............$0.041 /mile
at $0.10 /kWh.............0.029 /mile

Relative costs: 1.4 times.

Didn't we already go through this? Ernie Rogers
Based on data from 2007 analysis I came up with $0.09 /kWh for electricity and ~$0.25/kwh for gasoline consumer (at the pump/wall) costs. So that gasoline is 2.8 times more expensive for the same amount of energy at the wall/pump.

Then you have to factor in the reduced efficiency of the ice, so you will only go 3/7s as many miles with that gasoline, that cost 2.8 times as much as the same amount of energy in electricity (again, consumer cost at the pump/wall).

So really, just in terms of consumer costs per mile at the wall/pump, we are looking at gasoline being 6.5 times more expensive than electricity mile for mile in 2007.

Am I missing something significant here?
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Old 05-21-2009, 06:33 PM   #147 (permalink)
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You like electric cars

Hello, DC,

You like electric cars-- I do too.

Yes, you did miss something. I went back to the source of the calculation of $0.25 per kWh of gasoline. That calculation had included an ICE efficiency of 33%. I think you can back that out and then complete your calculation as you did and you will have a good result, based on 2007 energy prices.

So, the cost per kWh of gasoline that you should have used is--

$0.25 x 0.33 = $0.0825.

Okay, finish the calculation. (I got a factor of 2.14, favoring the EV, based on 2007 prices.)

Ernie Rogers

Quote:
Originally Posted by dcb View Post
<SNIP>

Based on data from 2007 analysis I came up with $0.09 /kWh for electricity and ~$0.25/kwh for gasoline consumer (at the pump/wall) costs. So that gasoline is 2.8 times more expensive for the same amount of energy at the wall/pump.

Then you have to factor in the reduced efficiency of the ice, so you will only go 3/7s as many miles with that gasoline, that cost 2.8 times as much as the same amount of energy in electricity (again, consumer cost at the pump/wall).

So really, just in terms of consumer costs per mile at the wall/pump, we are looking at gasoline being 6.5 times more expensive than electricity mile for mile in 2007.

Am I missing something significant here?
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Old 05-21-2009, 06:50 PM   #148 (permalink)
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not bent on EV, just not allergic.

Ok, thanks for catching that. Lets say a gallon has to be about 15 times the cost of a kwh to be equal in consumer fuel cost terms. So if a kwh costs $0.10, a gallon would have to cost $1.50 for the same fuel cost/mile.
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Old 05-22-2009, 11:57 PM   #149 (permalink)
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This is worth remembering

Yes, DC,

I think you have an excellent rule, there. Something to write on the wall.

Ernie

Quote:
Originally Posted by dcb View Post
Ok, thanks for catching that. Lets say a gallon has to be about 15 times the cost of a kwh to be equal in consumer fuel cost terms. So if a kwh costs $0.10, a gallon would have to cost $1.50 for the same fuel cost/mile.
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Old 05-23-2009, 01:01 AM   #150 (permalink)
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The Market Begs to Differ

Quote:
Originally Posted by dcb View Post
Concrete, I'm only looking at consumer fuel costs in this post here, not maintenance or taxes for defence budgets or any other funny business. And you do not acknowledge the role of inertia in the market place. It takes gas going over $4 because that is what it takes to get enough attention to get a noticable number of consumers to change, because they arent sitting around the dinner table with their calculators and doing energy source analysis fretting about the cost per mile all the time waiting to react by dumping their old cars. In some ways it is a good thing, imagine the race to the bottom every product would suffer if consumers were paying that much attention to everything
dcb,

I don't think we are that far apart on this issue - but our perspective are very different

The market does drive us to the bottom and consumers do cost analysis
and they include all the cost - not just fuel
and some of it is "funny business" and fuzzy logic
and not all of them analyze everything all of the time
- but we are consumers and we are analyzing cost in this thread
and any company that is viable analyzes and re-analyzes cost
Others will follow once a few have pointed out the numbers

Ernie's point is valid - and he has some good math to prove it
EVs get over hyped all the time - this is just one piece

As for Market inertia - it is there
But the US market has made quick corrections when the time was right
look at the housing market

I still maintain that there is a bell curve in market penetration
when the time is right (and $4 a gallon made it right) EVs will sneak into places and beat Gassers
market inertia or no
and there are lots of people trying to be the first successful EV maker

but my city sold there their handful of GEMs and replaced them with gassers
I'm just guessing - but I bet it had to do with cost/price/value/economic performance
what ever you want to call it

I'm not one for market manipulation
but a gas price floor would allow EVs to keep their foot in the door
but as it is the price of gas drops and amputates them every time
and it happens at a cost much higher than your calculations

example Aptera blossomed somewhere between $3.00 and $4.50 a gallon
and will become the next Citicar below $2 a gallon
that is what the market says
(you can do this postmortem on any of the Ex-EV makers to find a "market" value)

now we need to find the calculations and drivers (like Ernie) that make that so
and it is not the boogie man - it is just millions and millions of consumers doing cost analysis

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