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Old 09-22-2016, 08:48 AM   #101 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jamesqf View Post
That seems much better miles/kWh than other EVs. Quick bit of Googling says a bit over 3 miles/kWh for the Tesla S, about the same for a Chevy Volt in EV mode. Which at current gas & electric prices hereabouts makes them more expensive per mile than my Insight.

Carwings (Nissan EV online services) would indicate that fleetwide average is about 3.9 miles/ KWH, I'm typically in the 4.2-4.6 zone, but some are over 10.
It's not a ton cheaper to fuel than my TDI, but the Leaf is so nice to be in and everyone loves the thing. If you remove the environmental benefits the economic ones aren't that significant coming from an efficient car. Also, I pick up quite a bit of free KWH, and I don't remember ever getting free Diesel.

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Old 09-22-2016, 08:55 AM   #102 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ryland View Post
Power goes out and gas stations are dead too.
Around here about 1 in 3 fossil fuel resellers have a generator setup. However you quickly learn how reliant we are on trucks delivering refined fuel from refineries that may not be online. It's typically 36-48 hours before the stations with gerearators are dry.
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Old 09-23-2016, 12:26 AM   #103 (permalink)
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Range anxiety will disappear once people change their habits and expectations.
Look at what happened with cell (mobile) phones.
Vast numbers of people had basic mobile phones.
Then along come smart phones. They make the same calls but the battery only lasts a day not over a week. Initially everyone is asking why swap to a phone that needs to be recharged every day. But then we reached a tipping point where the extra features the smart phone offered outweighed the inconvenience of recharging every day.
Now it would be rare to see somebody using a basic phone.
Charging every night is just what you do. Anybody who reminisces about phones that lasted a week or more between charges sounds like a dinosaur.
EVs will be the same, we are just not at the tipping point yet. EVs need to have advantages over just being cheaper per mile on paper and those advantages need to be seen by the public.
This is the role of the early adopters.
Tesla has also done great things in swaying the general public.
Before Tesla, when i spoke to people their impression of an electric car was that they were super slow, crazy expensive and didn't go far enough to to be useful to anybody. Now that has changed to "Wish my car had EV performance", "I can almost justify the cost of an EV" and "They almost go far enough".
So the publics impression is changing.
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Old 09-23-2016, 12:28 AM   #104 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astro View Post
Now it would be rare to see somebody using a basic phone.
All I'd have to do is look in a mirror :-)

It's not a matter of habits & expectations. With phones, it's the power of marketing, plus the fact that people generally can charge them every night. If they had to recharge 3-4 times a day, or ran out of charge in the middle of a call (text, &c), I think it'd be a different story.

Likewise with cars: if you make trips of 20, 40, or even 60 miles, an EV with an 80 mile range is fine. If you need to make trips of say 120 miles, it isn't.

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Old 09-23-2016, 01:59 AM   #105 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamesqf View Post
All I'd have to do is look in a mirror :-)

It's not a matter of habits & expectations. With phones, it's the power of marketing, plus the fact that people generally can charge them every night. If they had to recharge 3-4 times a day, or ran out of charge in the middle of a call (text, &c), I think it'd be a different story.

Likewise with cars: if you make trips of 20, 40, or even 60 miles, an EV with an 80 mile range is fine. If you need to make trips of say 120 miles, it isn't.
As you say, you use a non-smart phone. There would be reasons why that suits you but there are large (very large) numbers of people that have swapped to the smart phone. They changed their habits and expectations to match the new phone and now wouldn't swap back even if you paid them. "What, be cut off from twitter and facebook? What about all my facebook friends that live to hear about my every bowel movement?"

The same for EVs. For some people the limitations make them impractical or unusable. But there are vast numbers of people (as indicated in several articles mentioned earlier in this thread) where the range limitation would cause them little to no inconvenience. Yet they have range anxiety.
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Old 09-23-2016, 02:05 AM   #106 (permalink)
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Probably because you cannot just wheel into a fuel station and put in a full tank in 5 minutes.

Lets face it, most people will not live with the limitations of an EV that needs to be charged frequently. I could not live with anything less than a Tesla (range wise) because a trip to the nearest shopping center for the weekly grocery run is about 250Km round trip. I could not, and indeed would not tolerate driving something like a Leaf that would require charging for a significant time just to allow me to drive home again.

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Old 09-23-2016, 04:51 AM   #107 (permalink)
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I actually like the comparison, as it's a valid one.

But we also have to recognize that smartphones are easier to charge on the fly than a car.

I don't think the number of charging stations will be an issue, but the quality of charging will have to improve for mass adoption.

-

Disclaimer: I also have a basic phone (bought solely for the large battery). But since my work is online, I can't live without having a smartphone or a tablet handy. The opportunity cost of not having it on me when a business contract comes through on Facebook (yes, we do business via Facebook) or via e-mail outweighs the inconvenience of having a phone that sometimes dies halfway through the day.

-

If we manage those opportunity costs... say... like banning ICE cars in city centers or giving a free pass for electrics on HOV lanes... mass adoption will come much sooner.
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Old 09-23-2016, 08:14 AM   #108 (permalink)
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I think that if an EV had the ability to connect to another EV and transfer some energy at a fast charge rate. Then i think that would go a long way towards removing the range anxiety.
To me the "anxiety" part of it isn't the fear of getting low and having to stop off somewhere and top up. It's the fear of being stranded with an empty tank and no way of solving the problem short of a tow truck.
Now if you knew that even if you ran out or were close to running out that you could ask a friend or family member to meet you and transfer a kW or two to get you to the nearest recharge point. Then that might alleviate some of the fear. You wouldn't be so helpless. There could even be a business opportunity for a mobile charge service.
I mean, who hasn't helped somebody who ran out of petrol? Taken them to the nearest service station so they could buy a few litres and then taken them back to their car. When i have done that it has cost me some minutes out of my day and a few cents in fuel for the round trip to the service station. In return i get to feel like i have done a good deed and the person who ran out of fuel learns to pay attention to the fuel gauge and that there are still some friendly people left in the world.
If the cars were EVs and they had the ability to transfer power between each other it would probably have cost me just as many minutes and just as many cents in fuel.
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Old 09-23-2016, 09:32 AM   #109 (permalink)
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While people still think of refueling the car once a week, they're going to worry a lot. Once the habit of plugging in your car every night takes hold, things will get a lot more reasonable.

Just like with smart phones.

Yes, outliers that need really long ranges won't be able to go full EV for a long time, but they're outliers, not the overall market.
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Old 09-23-2016, 02:46 PM   #110 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astro View Post
Range anxiety will disappear once people change their habits and expectations.
Look at what happened with cell (mobile) phones.
Vast numbers of people had basic mobile phones.
Then along come smart phones. They make the same calls but the battery only lasts a day not over a week. Initially everyone is asking why swap to a phone that needs to be recharged every day. But then we reached a tipping point where the extra features the smart phone offered outweighed the inconvenience of recharging every day.
Now it would be rare to see somebody using a basic phone.
Charging every night is just what you do. Anybody who reminisces about phones that lasted a week or more between charges sounds like a dinosaur.
EVs will be the same, we are just not at the tipping point yet. EVs need to have advantages over just being cheaper per mile on paper and those advantages need to be seen by the public.
This is the role of the early adopters.
Tesla has also done great things in swaying the general public.
Before Tesla, when i spoke to people their impression of an electric car was that they were super slow, crazy expensive and didn't go far enough to to be useful to anybody. Now that has changed to "Wish my car had EV performance", "I can almost justify the cost of an EV" and "They almost go far enough".
So the publics impression is changing.
This is a pretty good comparison, and maybe EVs will be more widely accepted as you suggest...

However, I immediately see a few reasons why your comparison breaks down:

1) There is a much larger disruption to your daily routine when your EV battery is drained vs your phone. Phone can be plugged into a charger nearly anywhere and almost immediately be returned to service. Charging your car in a random location can be a challenge and you must wait for a sufficient charge to be able to use it.

2) Smart phones have remarkable features that dumb phones can't compete with. I don't see that happening with EVs. Most features added to an EV can be added to a conventional car. A few things EVs are better at, but in general, EVs have reduced functionality (such as shorter range) but higher up front cost. Unless we have artificial incentives to encourage EV adoption, I think it will take a long time, if ever, for EVs to make up a significant market share. That said... our government is already adding artificial incentives, so maybe they would continue adding more.

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