Seems like electric is the end goal

[freebeard]

Nobody remembers Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics.

His novels played with some of the edge cases. It would be interesting to get ChatGTP's opinion; but I'm concerned by their terms of service.

You Need to Read the Terms of Service for OpenAI and ChatGPT -- Steve Lehto

Sounds like a honeypot with lawyers at the bottom.

[Blacktree]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

AI has potential to capture enormous wealth, but then again, it's iterable so competing AI will place downward pressure on profitability.

I like to call that process "McDonaldizing." And it happens in many fields. The general trend in industry is to reduce reliance on highly skilled (and highly paid) professionals. The goal is to reduce the skill requirement to entry level... like a McDonald's worker. Hence the term.

And I think AI will eventually McDonaldize just about everything. IIRC that was actually the goal, right from the outset. And it's going to have HUGE implications.

[aerohead]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration obviously didn't get oil pan 4's memo, and their various industry people are on-track for a 2040 constituting:
13.6% solar
27.6% wind
6.2% hydro
2.7% 'other' renewables
for a total of 50.1% of total US electric power as renewable, along with 19% nuclear, to make 69.1% of grid power non-fossil-fueled.
There doesn't appear to be apprehension about 'spinning reserves' created from non-carbon sourced 'peaking plants.'
Advances in solid-state transformers, voltage regulation, current regulation, intelligent energy management, bi-directional energy flow, reactive power compensation, power quality improvement, silicon carbide semiconducter switching, silicon carbide cascode amplification/ rectifying, low forwards voltage drop, low power dissipation, etc., make substitution of fossil-fuel-powered peaking plants a no-brainer.

The Organization of Energy Exporting Stars ( OEES ) has stated categorically that, the Sun will never embargo it's energy to Earth.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Nobody remembers Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics.

His novels played with some of the edge cases.

I do. Read the whole I, Robot series of short stories from the #5 top bunk of D-wing. Same place I read Prelude to Foundation in 2001, and A Brief History of Time, and a few Michael Crichton books, among others. Really only had time to read on the weekend, but with activities limited to walking the track, lifting weights, watching Nascar, doing laundry, or playing cards, it left a lot of time to read.

Originally Posted by Blacktree

I like to call that process "McDonaldizing." And it happens in many fields. The general trend in industry is to reduce reliance on highly skilled (and highly paid) professionals. The goal is to reduce the skill requirement to entry level... like a McDonald's worker. Hence the term.

And I think AI will eventually McDonaldize just about everything. IIRC that was actually the goal, right from the outset. And it's going to have HUGE implications.

...except as Scott Adams suggests, the human gatekeepers aren't going to just allow AI to displace them. Will the AMA and state medical boards just let AI erode the value of highly paid, trained and experienced physicians? The moment a bad outcome occurs due to AI, they will draw all attention to that anecdote as an excuse to shut it down or severely restrict it, or put someone who is highly paid in charge of oversight.

AI has the potential to cut healthcare costs in half, or better, but we'll figure out how to continue the trend of healthcare costs increasing faster than the inflation rate. That golden goose won't be killed without a major fight.

Originally Posted by aerohead

...to make 69.1% of grid power non-fossil-fueled.

Advances in [technology] make substitution of fossil-fuel-powered peaking plants a no-brainer.

I thought I recently read that 40% of US electricity is still coal or fossil fuels? Coal is still the single largest electricity source.

The prospect of future technology displacing fossil fuels now doesn't make it a no-brainer. It's going to take a lot of brains between now and when we significantly reduce fossil fuel consumption on a global scale.

EDIT: looks like I got mixed up, with gas being nearly 40%, and coal about 20%


... ah, and my attention to details like "In the year 2040" finally kicked in. Zero people know what things will be like 2 decades away.

[freebeard]

...except as Scott Adams suggests, the human gatekeepers aren't going to just allow AI to displace them. Will the AMA and state medical boards just let AI erode the value of highly paid, trained and experienced physicians?

What Mr. Adams said this morning is it will be the lawyers.

thedriven.io/2023/04/21: World’s largest battery maker announces major breakthrough in energy density

Here come the flying cars. CATL, in Chyna, have 500 Wh/kg close to production. Toward the bottom of the article we find

Earlier this month Argonne announced a new battery technology with an energy density of 1200 Wh/kg although that technology is not yet ready for bas[sic] production.

That's Argonne National Lab with a Lithium-Air solid state battery.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

What Mr. Adams said this morning is it will be the lawyers.

thedriven.io/2023/04/21: World’s largest battery maker announces major breakthrough in energy density

Here come the flying cars. CATL, in Chyna, have 500 Wh/kg close to production. Toward the bottom of the article we find


That's Argonne National Lab with a Lithium-Air solid state battery.

I don't know why Scott is so skeptical of news, but then gets excited about all of the battery "news". My default is to disbelieve all battery news. If there was ever an article that explained what the drawbacks and challenges are, then it might be worth looking at.

Twice the energy density isn't what's required to displace oil burning commercial aircraft, but it could allow for short distance taxis for the wealthy. They could get from one side of Portland to the other during rush hour in less than an hour.

SA said lawyers would be displaced by AI, and thank goodness. Access to the written and precedent shouldn't cost hundreds of dollars per hour. I always wondered why lawyers were so well paid considering they are just historians that focus only on legal history. There's a reason nobody likes 'em.

[freebeard]

....it could allow for short distance taxis for the wealthy. They could get from one side of Portland to the other...

I don't go to Portland. Do they still have wealthy people there?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I don't go to Portland. Do they still have wealthy people there?

Up in the hills. Older folk are resistant to change. The younger, entrepreneurial type of wealthy people certainly wouldn't set up shop there.

Friends of mine sold all their rental properties since Portland made it illegal to evict people who don't pay rent. Seems illegal to me considering ownership means making decisions about something, but Portland doesn't seem interested in upholding the law.

A local school board candidate left a flyer on my door the other day, and that combined with some encouraging political candidates (who can never win) was just enough to get me to register to vote for the first time since 2004.

[freebeard]

Was it Adams? Someone this morning was pointing to the emerging field of Presidential candidates.

What does Wikipedia have to say about a[nother] potential President Kennedy:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. is an American environmental lawyer and author known for promoting anti-vaccine propaganda and conspiracy theories. Wikipedia

Pretty strong endorsement there?
_______________


A quick search suggests Tulsi Gabbard has a 1% chance of becoming President, but would be a strong contender for veep under President Trump.

Those terms are acceptable.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Was it Adams? Someone this morning was pointing to the emerging field of Presidential candidates.

What does Wikipedia have to say about a[nother] potential President Kennedy:


Pretty strong endorsement there?
_______________


A quick search suggests Tulsi Gabbard has a 1% chance of becoming President, but would be a strong contender for veep under President Trump.

Those terms are acceptable.

I registered my daughter for school, so now I care more directly how the state is raising our children. The teacher's union is close to striking due to class sizes being too big and pay too little. I'll have to look more into it, but I have to say I'm already starting at a place of very sympathy for an occupation that has off more days than it has on, and an 8am-2:30pm schedule, not to mention 6-24 PTO days. If they want more money, they can get a summer job. Of course, the union complaint about class size is a bargaining lever for increasing pay, not because a union cares about educational outcomes.

Regarding POTUS, I'm partial to Indians.

Regarding vaccines- I don't care what people think of them so long as they don't require I hold the same opinion.