Seems like electric is the end goal

[hayden55]

Originally Posted by Solarpowered

Anyone else think that electric is pretty much the end of the struggle? You can try all you want to get more out of gas, but you'll be light years ahead just buying an electric car. They're not all super expensive, and every year more will appear, driving prices lower.

Seems like the end result for most people on this forum, will be to buy an electric car. And then a solar system to charge it off of. At that point you've reached the goal.

The only issue I see with pure electric cars over HEVs is that the battery will need to be replaced in both. Buying a $2500 battery from Toyota to put in my prius when it goes out in probably 15 years /250k of use isn't bad. But it seems like the EV's get around the same life except an EV with tolerable range will be more like a 50kW battery. Which will be around $15,000 all with diy replacement considered. Considering how little monies you save in a brand new model 3 over a lowly prius, I forsee a lot less used cars being on the road in 20 years.
I'm really not kidding I bet my Prius is worth $4500 and when it needs a battery it will be $2500. I could see a model 3 hitting $5000 when its 2030 at a similar age and the battery being probably $20000+ with the inflation we have caused at this point forward.
I don't see anybody wanting to fix something like that and keep driving it as it becomes economically unfeasible like the majority of Nissan Leafs that got tossed out and recycled.
Gotta remember a lot of us are too poor to care about climate change like the president or any of the leading cause activist who make 6 figures + every year.

[freebeard]

I forsee a lot less used cars being on the road in 20 years.

I doubt anyone can see anything 20 years down this road. Isn't every car on the road used? Maybe you mean 2nd or 3rd owner?

In 20 years, the flying car will have prevailed. Current news about Jetoptera is good.

6:46 - ...we are
6:48 - 20 to 35 dba lower decibels right lower
6:51 - than the quietest propeller and they are
6:53 - 40 to 50 lower than the quietest
6:55 - helicopter which is which is easy to do

That's with their current demonstrator. They've partnered with Pratt and Whitney, and they've taken delivery of a new turbine unit that is more fuel efficient or something.

The real mind-bender is the suggestion at the end that their Fluidic Propulsion System™ has application to submarines!

[freebeard]

Oopsy...

https://vaccineimpact.com › 2023 › shipping-company-prohibits-ev-cars-on-ferries-after-ship-sinks-from-fire-caused-by-ev-batteries
Shipping Company Prohibits EV Cars on Ferries After Ship Sinks from ...
The listed Norwegian shipping company Havila has prohibited electric, hybrid and hydrogen cars from entering their ferries. After a risk analysis, it was concluded that the risk to the safety of the ship fleet was too great. If a car starts to burn, the fire can no longer be extinguished.

https://www.energystoragejournal.com › blanket-ban-on-evs-by-norwegian-ferry-line
Blanket ban on EVs by Norwegian ferry line - Energy Storage Journal
26 Jan 2023January 26, 2023: Norwegian shipping company, Havila Kystruten announced on January 12 that it is banning electric cars, hybrids and hydrogen vehicles on its ferries because of a potential fire hazard. This follows a risk analysis conducted by Proactima, a Norwegian risk management advisory consultancy, according to chief executive Bent Martini.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Seems worth to remind that Hilux upfitted specifically for firefighters to deal with EVs inside covered parking areas is still fitted with a turbodiesel...
https://jalopnik.com/six-wheeled-toy...res-1850379928

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by hayden55

The only issue I see with pure electric cars over HEVs is that the battery will need to be replaced in both. Buying a $2500 battery from Toyota to put in my prius when it goes out in probably 15 years /250k of use isn't bad. But it seems like the EV's get around the same life except an EV with tolerable range will be more like a 50kW battery. Which will be around $15,000 all with diy replacement considered. Considering how little monies you save in a brand new model 3 over a lowly prius, I forsee a lot less used cars being on the road in 20 years.
I'm really not kidding I bet my Prius is worth $4500 and when it needs a battery it will be $2500. I could see a model 3 hitting $5000 when its 2030 at a similar age and the battery being probably $20000+ with the inflation we have caused at this point forward.
I don't see anybody wanting to fix something like that and keep driving it as it becomes economically unfeasible like the majority of Nissan Leafs that got tossed out and recycled.
Gotta remember a lot of us are too poor to care about climate change like the president or any of the leading cause activist who make 6 figures + every year.

Yep, this seems like a problem to me and something we've discussed before on the forum.

On the other hand cars are becoming more and more disposible anyway. Even if they are gas or diesel, they still have a ton of electronics that when that stuff starts to go out it no longer becomes feasible to fix the vehicle, regardless of how good the engine is still in. Cars in general seem harder to fix.

Apparently the average car life in the USA is just over 11 years or about 13 to 17 years if we don't include ones that die prematurely.

Take my 2006 Toyota Prius with 215,000 miles for an example. Not only does it need an HV battery, but also an expensive catalytic converter and an engine block. We're talking over $6,000 just in parts if I get all new parts from Toyota, which to me is the only way to go with the battery and legally the only way I can replace the catalytic converter. I guess I could save a little with a used engine and throw in any $600 aftermarket battery that will problably die in two to three years just to sell the car, but I'm still getting to the point that it will cost more to fix the car than what it's worth.

Also take a 2017 Ford Escape with 100,000 miles that the transmission went out on for some friends that had litterally just bought it used. They were quoted $9,000 to have it repaired. Thankfully an extended warranty saved them, but if this car were another 10 years old, it would be trash now.

So if 99% of people are throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years then what will it matter if people keep throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years? What does it matter if it's a large EV battery, a non-honeable engine or a CVT transmission that costs thousands and thousands to replace?

[Piotrsko]

Ok my tuppence: your 20 year old car has a minor engine failure, say a crack in the exhaust manifold. Makes it non smog compliant if that matters.

Do you buy and install a full long block engine with exhaust system OR do you just get the gaskets and manifold then have a go at it? Or do you junker the car and go buy new if you are on a small budget?

Every battery of some size has modules that assemble it. Replace the bad module, let it fail, rinse, repeat. Will it do another 100k miles? Who knows. Does it even matter?

All I know is there is going to be a learning process the unafraid will embrace and it could get pricey. I used to make $2.50 @ hour, lived on the Beach @Redondo view apartment for $370 @ month, ate in a restaurant with a pretty lady every Saturday. Got over that lifestyle 45 years ago.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by hayden55

The only issue I see with pure electric cars over HEVs is that the battery will need to be replaced in both. Buying a $2500 battery from Toyota to put in my prius when it goes out in probably 15 years /250k of use isn't bad. But it seems like the EV's get around the same life except an EV with tolerable range will be more like a 50kW battery. Which will be around $15,000 all with diy replacement considered. Considering how little monies you save in a brand new model 3 over a lowly prius, I forsee a lot less used cars being on the road in 20 years.
I'm really not kidding I bet my Prius is worth $4500 and when it needs a battery it will be $2500. I could see a model 3 hitting $5000 when its 2030 at a similar age and the battery being probably $20000+ with the inflation we have caused at this point forward.
I don't see anybody wanting to fix something like that and keep driving it as it becomes economically unfeasible like the majority of Nissan Leafs that got tossed out and recycled.
Gotta remember a lot of us are too poor to care about climate change like the president or any of the leading cause activist who make 6 figures + every year.

China's CATL has recently announced production plans for their 500-Watt-hour/kilogram battery, essentially doubling EV energy density.
If this pans out, predictions of future battery replacement cost. etc., will require an evolving calculus.

[serialk11r]

I expect in maybe 10 years all the batteries produced for EVs will be like LTOs where the cycle life is effectively forever (>10k cycles), problem solved.

[freebeard]

....and rubber tires will be replaced by earsplitting jets of air.

[Grant-53]

For several years I have volunteered at the Green Grand Prix. I did scoring again this year. The top production vehicle got 148 e-mpg at 46 mph. I also regularly read the SAE publications. No Tesla entries because of the Feb. recall. Toyota says their batteries are good for 4,400 recharges. The individual cells are fused to prevent thermal runaway. The major hurdles are in infrastructure both recycling lithium and a distributed power grid. For me to refit my home with all electric appliances and a heat pump would be $40,000. I could see a 3 cyl. turbo diesel hybrid working in rural areas. Batteries just don't like extreme temperatures.