The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[JSH]

Originally Posted by sendler

Volkswagon has stated that the new engine they are developing for 2020 will be produced for up to 10 years but is the last ICE engine they intend to develop.

I think the media is reading too much into that statement. Manufacturer's talk about "electrifying" their model line-ups. That includes EV's, hybrids, and 48V mild hybrids. I expect 2030 will mark the last generation of pure ICE engines and by then everything will be a hybrid of some type.

VW made another interesting statement while announcing 2018 earnings. They said they are increasing their projections for the number of EVs they will build in the next decade from 15 million to 22 million. That sounds like a lot until you realize at their current volumes they will make 215 million vehicles in the next decade.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by sendler

The energy density, cheap storage, and transportability of liquid fuel. And low price. The historical trend average for crude up until 2002 was $20/ barrel. 1 gallon of diesel contains 38 kWh.


Volkswagon has stated that the new engine they are developing for 2020 will be produced for up to 10 years but is the last ICE engine they intend to develop. Replacing ICE engines is not just about CO2 emissions. There is only 20 years of cheap oil left. We need to start transitioning all oil consumption now to stretch what we have left and learn a whole new way of life before oil starts to leave us.
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Oil near the top. Gas for heat, fertilizer, cement production-70 years. Coal for another 200. If we can still run the giant machines needed to level mountains to get at it without cheap liquid fuel.
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I figured I should start working on that transition not instead of playing catch-up.

[Taylor95]

I suspect that with the rise of EVs, oil will be cheaper longer than 20 years. Some estimate that we have in between 50 and 250 years of oil left in the earth.

https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-oil-left.aspx

BP estimated 53 years in 2013, but they were basing that only on proved reserves. In the 1980s, people predicted that we would run out of oil in 31 years. I'm sure that BPs estimate will also fall short; improved technology will allow us to harvest more oil from other sources.

I think VW is hasty in making the statement that in 2020 they will not be developing new ICE engines.

[Xist]

I am surprised that when a Tesla driver approaches a supercharger, they do not get a "Would you like me to park myself [Yes][No]" prompt on their screen.

That seems like it would potentially save a great deal of trouble.

[redpoint5]

Cars can't keep out of the fence along a straight road at my parents house. I don't see how cars will keep from running those chargers over. Just last month a dump truck ran through the boulders along my parents property and through their raised landscaping.

Those chargers stand zero chance of surviving long term without something to protect them.

[samwichse]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Cars can't keep out of the fence along a straight road at my parents house. I don't see how cars will keep from running those chargers over. Just last month a dump truck ran through the boulders along my parents property and through their raised landscaping.

Those chargers stand zero chance of surviving long term without something to protect them.

The chrome sides of the charger are actually heavy steel poles for this reason. You can see it better in this image (look at the bottom of the charger especially).

[freebeard]

When I was in college I pumped gas for a living. I saw a car snag the gas pump hose with the end of the (chrome 1950s) back bumper and jerk the pump right off the island. There was a geyser of gasoline five feet high and sparks

More recently gas stations have a big obvious switch on the wall for the power to the pumps. Bumpers are safer, too.

[Xist]

Also, quick-disconnect hoses!

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by samwichse

The chrome sides of the charger are actually heavy steel poles for this reason. You can see it better in this image (look at the bottom of the charger especially).

Ah, I was wondering if those were reinforcing poles, which is where I was going with my 1cm thick steel comment. I wonder if they are filled with concrete, or hollow steel tubes?

Looks like it'd hold up then, with some cosmetic damage accruing.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Ah, I was wondering if those were reinforcing poles, which is where I was going with my 1cm thick steel comment. I wonder if they are filled with concrete, or hollow steel tubes?

Looks like it'd hold up then, with some cosmetic damage accruing.

Especially with newer cars having a lot of panels made of fiberglass and plastic instead of metal.