The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[Taylor95]

Nice looking VW! (I assume it is the one on the right)

It wouldn't take much for some vehicles to fade I suppose. If parts are discontinued for a car, you could still last awhile if you are really good at fabricating your own things, and modifying stuff so it works. After that I suppose that you could rip out the engine and replace it with a new one.

But most people can't do that, and for most people their old car is not worth it.

But I believe that the ICE will still live on in the future, probably fueled by biogas or something along those lines.

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by Taylor95

Of course it will require less maintenance. Electric motors are much simpler than an ICE.

Have you never owned an older vehicle before? Things can leak, you know. If someone buys a 15 year old electric vehicle believing that they will never have to check anything, it will end up bad for them. Wheel bearings DO go bad over time, as well as everything I mentioned. I've done most of those things on my own vehicle.

I didn't even mention battery replacement, which is a huge cost in EVs.

How many times has an EV required a new battery pack replaced because they are worn out?

[JSH]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

How many times has an EV required a new battery pack replaced because they are worn out?

It depends on the EV. The replacing battery packs in the Nissan Leaf is relatively common. Replaceing battery packs in EVs with active BMS and liquid cooling is pretty rare.

In the end the jury is still out. There are very few 15 year old EVs.

I have marked the Leaf off my list now that Nissan has increased the price for a replacement battery pack from $5500 to $8500.

[redpoint5]

I was going to say, I really only hear of the Leaf needing replacement batteries, with some random manufacturing defects requiring replacement under warranty on the Bolt and others. There are Gen I and II Prii that sometimes need a battery replacement.

Initial degradation on the Bolt appears to be about 1% every 8,000 miles. Some data suggests the degradation might actually slow over time. Even if it didn't, this represents 200,000 miles at 75% remaining capacity (25% loss), or about 185 miles of range.

My guess is battery degradation will fall away as a primary concern as the chemistry and management systems appear to have improved longevity, and that technology is expected to continue improving.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

How many times has an EV required a new battery pack replaced because they are worn out?

My 2011 leaf got a new battery in 2014.

[RedDevil]

Even Tesla batteries can fail, or rather... take a look:
https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/11...-x-amp-model-3
Stunning how one pack fails rapidly while others don't seem to deteriorate at all over 300,000 miles or so...

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Even Tesla batteries can fail, or rather... take a look:
https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/11...-x-amp-model-3
Stunning how one pack fails rapidly while others don't seem to deteriorate at all over 300,000 miles or so...

I don't find it odd at all. The defective pack likely had a manufacturing defect. If it was serviceable assembly the Tesla shop could have diagnosed the problem and then repaired the pack. Since Tesla glues their packs together the whole pack had to be replaced.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Taylor95

If parts are discontinued for a car, you could still last awhile if you are really good at fabricating your own things, and modifying stuff so it works.

Back in the Beetle days it was very usual in Brazil to rebuild imports over a VW platform, mostly French ones such as a Simca 8 that an uncle of mine got in 2007 already rebuilt by some previous owner.

After that I suppose that you could rip out the engine and replace it with a new one.

Sometimes I look at some old beaters for sale and start to think about which other engine could be better than overhauling its stock one.

But most people can't do that, and for most people their old car is not worth it.

I have already watched videos and seen pictures of old beaters retrofitted with some small motorcycle engine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DoSyQmaeDk

Well, it wouldn't surprise me if people start using random stationary engines for the very same purpose, as these don't seem to fade away so soon for applications such as gensets.

But I believe that the ICE will still live on in the future, probably fueled by biogas or something along those lines.

Considering that raw biogas released to the atmosphere becomes more harmful than carbon dioxide released after the combustion, I still believe the ICE might retain a more relevant role on the carbon stabilization than it's usually reported.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Back in the Beetle days it was very usual in Brazil to rebuild imports over a VW platform, mostly French ones such as a Simca 8 that an uncle of mine got in 2007 already rebuilt by some previous owner.




Sometimes I look at some old beaters for sale and start to think about which other engine could be better than overhauling its stock one.




I have already watched videos and seen pictures of old beaters retrofitted with some small motorcycle engine.

Well, it wouldn't surprise me if people start using random stationary engines for the very same purpose, as these don't seem to fade away so soon for applications such as gensets.




Considering that raw biogas released to the atmosphere becomes more harmful than carbon dioxide released after the combustion, I still believe the ICE might retain a more relevant role on the carbon stabilization than it's usually reported.

I was only thinking in the context of the United States. What you said makes a lot of sense to me. People in more disadvantaged situations around the world would certainly do things like that (more so than the US). Some people are so good at fixing things that I'm certain that cars like that will be around forever basically. Most of the world is in poverty. Places like most of Africa won't even be able to have discussions about EVs for a very long time. There are very widespread problems such as disease and poverty all over the world.

For instance, I have lived in New Zealand for some time. There are so many people completely dependent on the government. The other people are struggling with crippling rent prices. Supposedly they are considered a developed country, but there are so many living paycheck to paycheck.

And the government there couldn't afford to build any infrastructure to support EVs because of their socialist programs.

[redpoint5]

Wow, I've got a friend in New Zealand right now and I had no idea the country is struggling. I figured they were similar to Australia with high cost of living and high wages.