The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

I don't know anyone that seriously thinks they will. (at least in the next 20 to 30 years)

Lot of predictions but I think the following graph is on the right track. I also think by 2035 ICE only cars will go out of production and be replaced by various degrees of hybridization. That is also a good time frame for 50% of cars to be BEVs.

EVs won't completely dominate because the world is a great big place and there are lots and lots of places that are hundreds of miles from anything. Places like Baker, NV (Population 68) that is about 300 miles of emptiness North of Vegas. I visited this past year and highly recommend a trip.

If you stay at Baker's Stargazer Inn you can charge your EV for free.

I do know someone who seriously thinks EVs will dominate the roads within 20 years from now. Me.

[oil pan 4]

I remember reading an article in 2008 or 9 that said up to 3% of cars on the road will be electric or some kind of plug in hybrid by 2020.
Right now nationally the US has about 0.5% pure electric and I don't know how many plugins there are, probably up to 1%.

More gasoline and oil to construct tires for later into the future.

[RedDevil]

The % of cars on the road will always lag sales.



Sales are rising and with many car companies planning to get into the game, they'll rise faster rather than slower in the future.

Sales are to triple within 2 years: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-in-two-years

As for predictions 11 years ahead... counting from now they would reach 125 million: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/elec...-2030-iea.html

[Vman455]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I don't think any mild hybrids run 48v.

I think the new Ram eTorque has a 48V system.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I don't think any mild hybrids run 48v.
I think they're all 100v plus.
The lowest one I can think of is the GM e-assist, it ran 144v and it sucked.

Ram, Jeep, Chevy, GMC all have 48V mild hybrid vehicle for sale in the USA today. The eTorque system in the Ram 1500 boosts fuel economy by 10% and adds 110 lb-ft of torque at idle. The part cost to RAM is about $350.

Mercedes, VW, Volvo, PSA and other sell 48V mild hybrids in Europe and are rapidly making them standard equipment.

All the major Tier 1 suppliers make a 48V system and expect sales to take off over the next 5-10 years as diesels fade away in light vehicles.

https://europe.autonews.com/article/...diesel-decline

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

The % of cars on the road will always lag sales.

As is normally the case, the author of the graph has mixed electric vehicles with hybrid vehicles to misrepresent the number of electric cars. PHEV still have an ICE

Originally Posted by RedDevil

As for predictions 11 years ahead... counting from now they would reach 125 million: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/elec...-2030-iea.html

Today there are 1.2 billion cars on the road globally. In 2030 that number should be about 2 billion. That would give EVs a 6% market share.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

If you stay at Baker's Stargazer Inn you can charge your EV for free.

You can. However the Stargazer was fully booked when we visited. From memory it is a B&B with about 10 rooms and is quite pricey. 90,000 people visit Great Basin National park per year so 1 charger isn't going to cut it.

I wasn't thinking about visitiors though. I was thinking about people that live in places like Baker and routinely drive 100 + miles to get to "town"

Originally Posted by RedDevil

I do know someone who seriously thinks EVs will dominate the roads within 20 years from now. Me.

Let me be clearer. I was talking people in the industry that would actually have to do the work to make this a reality. VW is the most aggressive manufacturer at adopting EVs and they are planning EVs to make up 10% of their global sales in 2025.

It takes 3 years to design a car and tool up for production and then that car is generally sold for 6-8 years before being replaced.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

Y VW is the most aggressive manufacturer at adopting EVs and they are planning EVs to make up 10% of their global sales in 2025.

I wouldn't even say VW is the most aggressive at talking about making EVs, as Tesla talks about it much more. They sold 164 EVs in all of the US and are at 17th place with their sole vehicle; the e-Golf.

Perhaps they will become an EV powerhouse, but it's all talk for the moment, along with some court negotiated EV infrastructure building. I expect a company to SAY whatever it takes to get back into the good graces of their customers/government. It remains to be seen what they actually DO.

It's like Tesla saying they will build a $35k car; lots of talk, no evidence of making it happen. If they aren't making it now with federal subsidies still available, there's little chance they will make it happen in the future.

[RustyLugNut]

But, it will be less prevalent for the average transport vehicle as this is the market EVs have a true advantage.

Hybridization of most other vehicles is logical for design reasons.

If an ICE is optimized as a constant load generator, you will be able to minimize fuel use and size. Material science as well as engine design will boost fuel efficiency past 50%.

And there is the pathway of hydrogen storage via carbon polymerization. This is why I am a supporter of renewable energy. It is reducing the cost of electricity dramatically in some regions. It cannot support a grid like nuclear can, but that cheap electricity can be made into a hydrocarbon. Stored electricity. The United States Navy already has an ongoing research project that takes CO2 from sea water and hydrogen from electrolyzed water to produce JP8 through heat, pressure and specific catalysts. However, most any hydrocarbon can be produced. A lower energy pathway would be to produce dimethyl ether. Stored in low pressure propane tanks, it can be used directly as a fuel or as a feedstock for chemical production.

Our future ICE hybrids will be nuclear/renewable powered.

[RedDevil]

If it becomes cheaper to build an EV than an ICE car of the same size then the transition will be rapid and complete.

As of now, there's no such thing. The availability of batteries is the problem. Tesla can't build them fast enough, so it can't build power walls as it needs the batteries for its cars.

You'd think Tesla could scale up easy enough, the Gigafactory isn't even halfway built. But probably they prefer to see whether Maxwells dry electrodes can be of use to implement that on new lines rather than using the current process and having to rebuild them for Maxwells electrodes shortly after.