The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[redpoint5]

I have gut feelings about particular stocks, like back when Google went public I was thinking that was probably a good investment. But what do I know that others don't? Index funds are the more reliable/cheaper (than a managed fund) bet.

[Vman455]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I have gut feelings about particular stocks, like back when Google went public I was thinking that was probably a good investment. But what do I know that others don't? Index funds are the more reliable/cheaper (than a managed fund) bet.

I bought GOOG a few months after it went public, because I had just opened an IRA and knew nothing about investing. Now, I'm all in index funds and I just leave my portfolio alone. I hadn't heard about Tesla being added to the S&P; guess I'll be a vicarious owner as well if that happens.

[JSH]

If Tesla shows a profit 4 consecutive quarters they will be added to the S&P 500.

[Taylor95]

I would definitely be wary of TSLA. Elon Musk has a habit of making big promises and not delivering on them.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by Taylor95

I would definitely be wary of TSLA. Elon Musk has a habit of making big promises and not delivering on them.

Not delivering on promises is the one reason why Tesla decided to take parts manufacturing in house.
Parts manufacturers wouldn't deliver to specs? Make your own parts.
Grohmann doesn't solve its ongoing problems? Buy them.
It put Tesla back several months, but the promises will materialize albeit later than initially foreseen.

Specifically, the $35.000 Model 3 will be a fact. Tesla can sell a $42,900 mid range Model 3 with a $3,000 sound system and a lot of other premium stuff at a > 20% profit margin, so just a smaller battery and a simple sound system would be enough to maintain a healthy margin on the base model.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Specifically, the $35.000 Model 3 will be a fact. Tesla can sell a $42,200 mid range Model 3 with a $3,000 sound system and a lot of other premium stuff at a > 20% profit margin, so just a smaller battery and a simple sound system would be enough to maintain a healthy margin on the base model.

I doubt a premium sound system costs Tesla 10% more than the standard system.

When I was doing interiors for Mercedes we had options with 1000% profit margins. Add $10 in parts and charge $1000 for the option

In the automotive world margins come on the options.

[RedDevil]

I do know the cost of even a single pair of high end speakers.
One of them dented the door of my old Civic from the inside when its magnet came within an inch of the sheet metal and jerked free from my hands.
No doubt there was a nice markup on them, but you could see, feel and hear the extraordinary quality. That stuff does come at a price.

From what I've seen and read the Model 3 has the best OEM sound system of any car.
Anyway, this was the source for my $3000 quote:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/18...ptions-leaked/

Tesla makes a 20% profit on the midrange, so it should cost about $34,420 to build.
Even if the smaller battery and base trim hardly makes a difference cost wise it would enable Tesla to make a profit on the base model.
We'll just have to wait until the demand for mid- and high range models finally drops below the production capacity.

[RedDevil]

Anyway, about that slow death...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23...sh-gasmobiles/

Electric lighting was more expensive than gas lighting, but after a gradual start it zapped them off the market.
Black and white TV's were cheaper than color TV's but disappeared.
You hardly see non-smart mobile phones anymore, even though they are still cheaper and only need charging once in a few weeks.

How long will it take for cars? When will EV's become disruptive?

Disruptive technologies bring new market leaders out of nothing.
PC's paved the way for Microsoft.
Internet shopping gave us Amazon.
The internet as a whole: Google, Facebook, etc.
Apple was all but dead, but the iPod and iPhone made them one of the biggest companies in the world.
Many of today's biggest companies got there by riding the surf of disruptive technology.

Afterwards it is easy to recognize what caused them to be so successful.
At the time many predicted they'd struggle to survive, and nobody noticed the huge potential.
It is happening again, this time it is EVs and Tesla.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Anyway, about that slow death...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23...sh-gasmobiles/

Electric lighting was more expensive than gas lighting, but after a gradual start it zapped them off the market.
Black and white TV's were cheaper than color TV's but disappeared.
You hardly see non-smart mobile phones anymore, even though they are still cheaper and only need charging once in a few weeks.

How long will it take for cars? When will EV's become disruptive?

Disruptive technologies bring new market leaders out of nothing.
PC's paved the way for Microsoft.
Internet shopping gave us Amazon.
The internet as a whole: Google, Facebook, etc.
Apple was all but dead, but the iPod and iPhone made them one of the biggest companies in the world.
Many of today's biggest companies got there by riding the surf of disruptive technology.

Afterwards it is easy to recognize what caused them to be so successful.
At the time many predicted they'd struggle to survive, and nobody noticed the huge potential.
It is happening again, this time it is EVs and Tesla.

This will not happen for reasons I outlined in my first post. If there was a natural disaster in an world that exclusively relied on electricity, how will you get power to those vehicles in the disrupted area? How will cleanup and repair work? It is not feasible to transport electricity.

We would also need a way to produce 30-50% more electricity in order to power all those vehicles. Presumably that is without energy coming from fossil fuels, which make up over half of our electricity. So we would need to produce about 300-350% more energy from other sources in order to make that scenario feasible. Not to mention redo the whole grid to support that kind of energy. That seems like a big hurdle to overcome. *those percentages are based on current electricity consumption in the US

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

When will EV's become disruptive?

It will always depend on the infrastructure. But anyway, I'd still not hold my breath for EVs becoming disruptive. Hybrids are already proven and becoming mainstream, to the point of some models that are not a halo car being available in some markets as a hybrid only, and the flexibility of enabling some range extension through an ICE might render plug-in hybrids a more convenient choice in a worldwide basis.