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[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Unless the solar panels fall like mana from the sky, you literally can't say it cost you nothing to drive EVs (model Ses?)

Solar panels will pay for themselves in 5-10 years, and that includes the electricity you use in your EV.

So far, our electricity is costing us less than half of what it used to, and that means about 2¢ / mile for our 2 EV's. If we insulate the house, that cuts the electricity we use, and then we could pay nothing for the EV's.

[Snax]

Well, regardless of costs and what is 'free', I'm looking to get my setup to the point where my EV is net zero from the off-grid secondary system I am implementing. I think that is going to be pretty close to do-able with two Model S modules and 1.2kW of panels on the roof.

No, the panels won't deliver enough power to top off my car every day, but there's probably 5 days a month that I simply don't go anywhere more than a mile or two from the house.

Honestly, it's not the best use of the panel resource in the context of the grid as a battery, but like I said at the start, this is also a backup for if/when SHTF with an earthquake or other less likely disaster. If I thought that was never going to happen, I'd just be expanding the current grid-tie directly.

It is possible to take advantage of the battery in my i3 for emergency power, but without a backup system, I'd have no way to charge over an extended period of time. Seriously, it could be MONTHS without power here if the quake is as strong as it is predicted it could be at 9.0.

To put that in perspective: 100x the shaking of the Northridge quake for multiple times as long. There will NO infrastructure left if that is the case. Probably be lucky if any of our backup plan is usable at that point as well. :P

[redpoint5]

I'm repeating myself, but nobody in the Oregon valley is money ahead by purchasing solar. If I have $10k in my pocket, I could buy a solar roof and have it pay back in 10 years (supposedly). On the other hand, if I invest the $10k, in 10 years I'll have turned it into $20k.

It might make financial sense when heavily subsidized, but not if you've got to pay market price for everything.

Of course, we don't need financial reasons to do something, to say it's the financially prudent thing to do is misleading.

[Angel And The Wolf]

If you are worried about long term interrupted line power, you might do well to bury a heating oil tank to run a small generator. You'll never store enough solar for a months-long earthquake recovery, and those more desperate than you will steal your cells. (Think "Beyond Thunderdome".

[oil pan 4]

I'm going to buy used panels, install everything humanly possible my self, payback is in around 3.5 years +/- 1 year.
5 to 10 years? Ain't nobody got time for that.

[Snax]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I'm repeating myself, but nobody in the Oregon valley is money ahead by purchasing solar. If I have $10k in my pocket, I could buy a solar roof and have it pay back in 10 years (supposedly). On the other hand, if I invest the $10k, in 10 years I'll have turned it into $20k.

It might make financial sense when heavily subsidized, but not if you've got to pay market price for everything.

Of course, we don't need financial reasons to do something, to say it's the financially prudent thing to do is misleading.

It is absolutely true that there are better ways to get a return on free cash, but let me spin this a different direction a bit:

A residential photovoltaic system can be financed via a home equity line of credit. With favorable system costs, a 10 year payback period is not unreasonable to suggest, but obviously is fungible a few k each direction. Using the 'Rule of 72', where the amount invested can be estimated to be doubled, solar is potentially actually on par with your assertion. Providing a return on investment of 7.2% using that calculation, even if one were to pay a higher HELOC rate equal to that, would still provide long term dividends on the investment beyond the payback period. Right now however, there are HELOCs running in the 5% range. Taking that math a little further, that is still as much as 2% ROI before the payback period ends. Better still, HELOCs when used for capital improvements of a primary residence are tax deductible interest (assuming the $750k limit is not breached).

So if a person lacks the liquid cash outright to finance a solar installation, the option of cheap money, HELOC in particular, is still potentially a cash flow positive proposition over the long term. Moreover, money invested in PV upfront is typically factored directly into property value later on for sale. (Providing the other half of the Rule of 72 doubling.)

But there is still more.

If the property is the primary residence, capital improvements to it and on the ROI that they provide are also income tax free - unlike most other investments such as stocks or additional investment properties. The only real variables then become future market value of the property the solar is installed on, weather, and the cost of energy purchased from others. Other than that, returns are guaranteed.

There are few investments that offer that level of return and security on borrowed money with so little management.

[Snax]

One could take my example to more worst case scenario, pushing the payback period out to 15 years at a calculated 4.8% ROI, and basically be net zero on the cost of putting the system on the roof over that same period, then enjoy the increased home value and remaining service life of the system for at least another 10-20 years or even longer tax free.

[Snax]

Bottom line: I think anybody paying more than 10 cents per kWh that has the means to finance a system and do any of the work themselves would be insane to wait another year to do it. The tax credit situation is just going to deteriorate from here unless something exceptional occurs to change that.

[jjackstone]

I wonder. How much money do you all put into your favorite hobbies? What is the payback time for your hobbies? Here's the thing with me. I will never recover the amount of money I put into an off grid system unless electricity prices reach 50 cents/kwh because I am already so energy efficient. However, my "hobby" is keeping my money out of the utility company's hands and being self-sufficient in regards to energy. So for this hobby I am happy to spend ten of fifteen thousand dollars to keep the utility from having my money. I have a number of friends who have severe car hobbies. They think nothing of dropping ten thousand bucks on a beautiful paint job for their classic Mustang or '57 Chevy. It's not always about payback. Sometimes it's just for fun.
JJ

[oil pan 4]

My base rate is 7 cents per kwh and bill divided by total consumption is between 9 and 10 cents. And I'm putting up solar panels.