Tesla Model Y

[Hersbird]

I admit after looking at the Tesla webpage I don't understand all of this. How can somebody today be offered a base model 3 in 6-8 weeks? There were something like 440,000 reservations total, 230,000 model 3 made of which up to a few weeks ago zero were base models, so how do they get past what should be a big backlog and be filling brand new orders? Or did almost 1/2 the people take a refund? There had to be a few as in at least 20-30k people still waiting with a deposit in place for a base model. Did they just leapfrog those guys? It's like they are running the local buy here, pay here used car lot off the highway.

[RedDevil]

As I understood only the first people on the reservation list have already gotten an invitation to configure their standard range cars, many have done so, which raised the delivery date for the remaining reservation holders from 2-4 weeks for the fist deliveries to 6-8 weeks for the rest.

Elon Musk has said that Standard Range production will only ramp up to large numbers in Q3 or so. And why not, Europe can still only order the long range (reservation or not) and does so in large numbers. Why keep us waiting even longer?

I'm glad I did not do a deposit though. I don't really see much value in it, unless you want to be first no matter what.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by roflwaffle

I could see them spending most of their remaining cash, but I don't see it as a negative. Going from building a few thousand cars per year (2012) to building 80k+ cars/year (2016) required ~$4.1 billion in capex from 2013 through 2016.

Since the end of 2016, the Gigafactory went from producing no cells to producing more than the rest of the world combined for EVs, and Tesla went from building 80k+ cars/year (2016) to building 80k+ cars/quarter (18Q4), which required about $5.5 billion in capex from 2017 through 2018.

If the Model Y is popular enough, I could see Tesla increasing battery and vehicle production by another factor of two to four and needing another $5-7+ billion over two to four years to do so. If the Y is only as popular as the 3, then their capex will be likely be much less.

The problem is that they have promised to make the Model Y, Semi, and Roadster at the same time. They will also need cash to increase their service network to handle repairs on all the new cars they are selling.

Tesla doesn't have enough cash on hand to do everything that Musk has promised and pay off existing debt obligations.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

The problem is that they have promised to make the Model Y, Semi, and Roadster at the same time. They will also need cash to increase their service network to handle repairs on all the new cars they are selling.

Tesla doesn't have enough cash on hand to do everything that Musk has promised and pay off existing debt obligations.

You forgot the pickup truck

Tesla is growing fast. They've introduced a new model every 2-3 years when they were still small. They should be able to do it faster now.
All these models have been planned for years already. Preparation is under way.

Revenue in the latter half of 2018 was at half a billion a week. It should be more now, and will be much more once China chimes in.
(construction of the factory is under way, the first pillars have been erected)

The Roadster won't be built in big numbers, that's no problem. The Model Y is essentially a Model 3. Only the Semi is something different.

How many things has Tesla done that people said they'd never be able to do already?

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

You forgot the pickup truck

The pickup doesn’t have a public release date

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Revenue in the latter half of 2018 was at half a billion a week.

Revenue doesn’t matter. Profit matters. Steady profits every quarter without accounting gimmicks.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

The Roadster won't be built in big numbers, that's no problem. The Model Y is essentially a Model 3. Only the Semi is something different.

It takes just as much design and testing time to build a low volume car as it does a high volume car. You still have to build tooling for every part just like a high volume car. Yes the assembly line can be simplified and manual.

The Model Y needs a new assembly line in NV as well as tooling designed and built for the 30% that is new. It still needs product validation and testing.

The Semi is COMPLETELY new and in a market segment that Tesla has no experience.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

How many things has Tesla done that people said they'd never be able to do already?

How many things has Tesla done on schedule and correct the first time? Zero

[RedDevil]

If you look at the companies that now dwarf any car manufacturer, like Google and Amazon, and see how much profit they generated while growing so big so fast, and you look at Tesla, don't you see the connection?

Apparently not.

[redpoint5]

JSH seems to have a very good grasp of the financial situation Tesla is in. My hunch, based on very little actual knowledge of Tesla's financial position, is that they will take another decade to be out of the woods financially, assuming they make it (I think they will).

Tesla sales will slow in the US, and the Model Y at best will sell as well as the Model 3. With no federal subsidies, hardly anything to distinguish the Y from the 3 other than larger, and the fact that it's 10% more expensive will make it a tough sell. People that want and can afford EVs have them.

Global demand will probably be fulfilled within 3 years. There had better be major cost reductions or improvements in battery tech by then, or perhaps a very robust full self-driving feature.

[RedDevil]

Have you ever driven a Tesla?

I've driven a Zoe and I know I want an EV since then. And the Zoe is probably the least attractive of them all.
Very few people who have driven a Tesla end up not wanting one.
The demand will be there. The more there are out on the streets, the faster it will grow.

[Fat Charlie]

Originally Posted by JSH

How many things has Tesla done on schedule and correct the first time? Zero

As compared to... older, established car companies?

Tesla's development and production schedules are the pipe dreams of a crazed billionaire. And they don't hit those deadlines.

The "real" car companies gave us the rule to never buy a car in its first model year, but Tesla gets laughed at for glitches.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

If you look at the companies that now dwarf any car manufacturer, like Google and Amazon, and see how much profit they generated while growing so big so fast, and you look at Tesla, don't you see the connection?

Apparently not.

Tesla is a manufacturing company not a software company. Comparison between the two types of companies are meaningless.

Yes, I’ve driven an EV. I drive a Spark EV almost every day.