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Old 03-15-2019, 04:38 PM   #41 (permalink)
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You think they can't build it? Having 75% of the parts in common with the Model 3 they've built 220,000 times already?
Building depends on Tesla having the money for the new production tools and assembly line at the Gigafactory. If they spend almost all theie remaking cash they can likely do it.

Can they do it on schedule? All past experience says no. Musk says production cars will be available 4th quarter 2020. Those will likely be a few dozen preproduction car. Early to mid 2021 is more likely for production at any scale. By then the Model 3 design will be 5 years old.

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Old 03-15-2019, 04:40 PM   #42 (permalink)
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You predicting failure for the Model Y, or more broadly Tesla?
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Old 03-15-2019, 05:01 PM   #43 (permalink)
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I fear Tesla will never get to building the affordable versions on any of these or the Model 3s just about when they get to the point of building low end 3s they shift production to high end Ys. 3 years down the road they will shift production to something else. Maybe I'm off, has anyone gotten a base model 3 yet?
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:45 PM   #44 (permalink)
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You can go to tesla.com and configure a base Model 3 now. Has been available for a couple weeks now. I think estimated delivery is about 4 weeks. The first people to order should be getting theirs right about now.

The base models will be available, but it's the lowest priority so expect to wait, and then expect to wait longer than you anticipated.

I don't really consider $35k to be affordable, which is why I mention $20k. EVs hold the potential to be cheaper than ICE, but they aren't there yet.
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:36 PM   #45 (permalink)
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A week ago Tesla has produced 550 standard range Model 3s and I read today that several of those have already found their way to their owners.
Tesla is building and delivering their promised $35,000 Model 3 right now.

But the naysayers will never learn from getting proven wrong. They just shift their targets for Tesla to miss, continuously, unstoppable. They never learn.

Tesla keeps achieving those targets regardless, maybe after a delay, but they get there.

When everyone said EVs would never have a useful range Tesla promised and did build an EV with a reasonable range (the Roadster).
They could never build that luxury Model S car - but they did.
The Model X was way too complex - but Tesla pulled it off.
A mass produced reasonably priced midsize EV - unthinkable. Hello Model 3.

Now Tesla says they are going to make a million Model Y's a year.
Do not bet against it. They will.

A $25,000 car was expected to be revealed within 3 years. By that time Tesla should be building a wide range of cars totaling several millions a year.
A subcompact $20,000 with a reasonable range should be possible by then or soon afterwards.
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Old 03-16-2019, 12:04 AM   #46 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Building depends on Tesla having the money for the new production tools and assembly line at the Gigafactory. If they spend almost all theie remaking cash they can likely do it.

Can they do it on schedule? All past experience says no. Musk says production cars will be available 4th quarter 2020. Those will likely be a few dozen preproduction car. Early to mid 2021 is more likely for production at any scale. By then the Model 3 design will be 5 years old.
I could see them spending most of their remaining cash, but I don't see it as a negative. Going from building a few thousand cars per year (2012) to building 80k+ cars/year (2016) required ~$4.1 billion in capex from 2013 through 2016.

Since the end of 2016, the Gigafactory went from producing no cells to producing more than the rest of the world combined for EVs, and Tesla went from building 80k+ cars/year (2016) to building 80k+ cars/quarter (18Q4), which required about $5.5 billion in capex from 2017 through 2018.

If the Model Y is popular enough, I could see Tesla increasing battery and vehicle production by another factor of two to four and needing another $5-7+ billion over two to four years to do so. If the Y is only as popular as the 3, then their capex will be likely be much less.

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Old 03-16-2019, 08:15 AM   #47 (permalink)
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If the Y is only as popular as the 3, then their capex will be likely be much less.
If a CUV is only as popular as a smallish sedan...

Being a sedan has depressed demand for the 3. So has being marketed as the "affordable" Tesla.
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Old 03-16-2019, 11:26 AM   #48 (permalink)
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Sorry, I didn't realize "several" have been delivered. You have to basically plan one car ahead and you are good. So what is the best new car to buy while you wait for your new Tesla?
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Old 03-16-2019, 12:41 PM   #49 (permalink)
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If you ordered one you'd have an estimate of delivery, so you'd probably not buy something in between but rather rent it.

I have not ordered a Tesla nor expect to do so within a couple of years as I prefer to not have to loan money for a car. Also my Insight still has years of life in it while its value isn't that high.
I do want an EV though from now on, so if I had to replace the Insight prematurely I'd buy a used Leaf or Ioniq. But I'd keep saving up for a standard range Model Y.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:54 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Quote:
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If you ordered one you'd have an estimate of delivery, so you'd probably not buy something in between but rather rent it.

I have not ordered a Tesla nor expect to do so within a couple of years as I prefer to not have to loan money for a car. Also my Insight still has years of life in it while its value isn't that high.
I do want an EV though from now on, so if I had to replace the Insight prematurely I'd buy a used Leaf or Ioniq. But I'd keep saving up for a standard range Model Y.
So say I put $1000 down in 2016 (when Tesla started taking deposits on the lower priced model 3) I would have gotten a delivery date at that point? And seeing as how over 400,000 people did that, and they have delivered a few hundred (granted many people took the upsell), what exactly would be my date considering I was mid pack? Seeing as how it was supposed to be in 2018, they already missed that, and I'm sitting here 3 years+ later and still no car. How much does it cost to rent a car 3 years?

PS Also when everybody was told of a $35,000 Tesla the $7500 credits were forever from expiring, so really customers were thinking (and many news stories also touted) $27,500 or less. Now you are talking!


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