Wood stove and coal furnace heating

[oil pan 4]

The energy prices forecast is we are screwed and the inflation that will come from build back broke will be devastating.
I have a mountain of wood chips to burn this winter and I picked up 64 more bags of tractor supply coal, I think that puts me at around 120 some odd bags.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

The energy prices forecast is we are screwed and the inflation that will come from build back broke will be devastating.
I have a mountain of wood chips to burn this winter and I picked up 64 more bags of tractor supply coal, I think that puts me at around 120 some odd bags.

If the BBB plan passed at the current spending level it would be an additional 0.8% of spending in our $21 trillion dollar economy. Do you really believe that tiny increase will cause runaway inflation?

[Piotrsko]

Baader meinhoff effect ,so, yes he does.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by JSH

If the BBB plan passed at the current spending level it would be an additional 0.8% of spending in our $21 trillion dollar economy. Do you really believe that tiny increase will cause runaway inflation?

Not runaway, just 20% to 30%, maybe 50% that is here to stay.
I think the consumer price index is a lie. Inflation is up more like 20 to 30%. The things least affected seem to be up 3 to 6% and that's what cpi focuses on. Things people buy a lot of all the time like energy is up 50% 100%, major buys like used cars are up 30%, want to rent a car that's uo 50%, housing is up 20% to 30% some extreme examples are over 100%.
Food hasn't gone up much yet but all the farm reports are saying to expect prices to be up 10% to 30% next year, because they are absolutely expecting fertilizer shortages.

[freebeard]

The correct way to weigh inflation is to use 1913 as a baseline. Do you know why?

The curve that's going asymptotic is the money in circulation. This means more money chasing the same goods. This will have what are called 'natural consequences'.

[oil pan 4]

Because 1913 was the year the United States messed up.

[redneck]

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1913








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[JSH]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Not runaway, just 20% to 30%, maybe 50% that is here to stay.
I think the consumer price index is a lie. Inflation is up more like 20 to 30%. The things least affected seem to be up 3 to 6% and that's what cpi focuses on. Things people buy a lot of all the time like energy is up 50% 100%, major buys like used cars are up 30%, want to rent a car that's uo 50%, housing is up 20% to 30% some extreme examples are over 100%.
Food hasn't gone up much yet but all the farm reports are saying to expect prices to be up 10% to 30% next year, because they are absolutely expecting fertilizer shortages.

Gas - still cheaper than it was 10 years ago. It swings up and down wildly based on global factors. Makes sense as it is a global commodity with price set at auction

Electricity - mixed based on where you live. Up in 21 states over the last year DOWN in the rest

https://www.electricchoice.com/elect...ices-by-state/

Used cars - Way up due to a shortage of cars to buy. Fix the shortage and people wont pay more than original MSRP for a 2-3 year old car.

Rental cars - not sure how this is a "major buy" but that was a temporary spike in the summer when cars were in short supply because rental companies had sold off their fleet. Prices and availability had already returned to normal by the end of the summer.

Housing - this is by far the item likely to stay elevated because so far no one is dealing with that cause - lack of housing to buy were people want to live. That said some areas will have adjustments. When I was in Charlotte, NC I saw homes listed on Zillow for tens of thousands less than what they sold for a year ago.

EDIT: It also seems you only don't believe the consumer price index when it counters what you expect. The Consumer Price Index says used cars are up 49% since June 2020 and 30% in the last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by JSH

Gas - still cheaper than it was 10 years ago. It swings up and down wildly based on global factors. Makes sense as it is a global commodity with price set at auction

Electricity - mixed based on where you live. Up in 21 states over the last year DOWN in the rest

https://www.electricchoice.com/elect...ices-by-state/

Used cars - Way up due to a shortage of cars to buy. Fix the shortage and people wont pay more than original MSRP for a 2-3 year old car.

Rental cars - not sure how this is a "major buy" but that was a temporary spike in the summer when cars were in short supply because rental companies had sold off their fleet. Prices and availability had already returned to normal by the end of the summer.

Housing - this is by far the item likely to stay elevated because so far no one is dealing with that cause - lack of housing to buy were people want to live. That said some areas will have adjustments. When I was in Charlotte, NC I saw homes listed on Zillow for tens of thousands less than what they sold for a year ago.

EDIT: It also seems you only don't believe the consumer price index when it counters what you expect. The Consumer Price Index says used cars are up 49% since June 2020 and 30% in the last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02

Oh used cars are up 50% in a year and a half, oh that's great news.

Notice I didn't list electricity specifically.
But now that you mention it I'm in new mexico and the nm public regulatory commission has raised rates 7% next year is trying to increase rates by 14.4% next year. I say it's because all that "cheap wind and solar" they are adding to the grid. So it's coming.

If someone unexpectedly has to rent a car for a week and it costs a $1,000 that's pretty big for at least half to 2/3 the population. I tried to rent a car this summer when my wifes car was in the body shop for hail dent repair and there were none to be had. So the insurance cut us a check for what they would have paid for a rental car for those 2 weeks. (That's the money we used to fix our old hyundai with a bad engine came from).
Then in early November I rented a car and it cost several hundred more dollars than I expected. Rental car prices are not back to normal.

[freebeard]

Oh used cars are up 50% in a year and a half, oh that's great news.

Not in my world. NADA book value on the car I need to sell, the Dasher, is unchanged: Low -- $680 Mid -- $1,042 High -- $1,467