Workhorse REx Hybrid Truck

[niky]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

While true on the head of things, especially in your market,
in the US “legislative compliance cost” is up to 30% of vehicle cost to the consumer on “volume” models, on low volume models even higher, on very high volume models much lower.

I too work in the industry and generally if the take rate isn’t high enough to reduce regulatory costs under 30% it won’t be considered,
historically us auto makers would allow you to buy a custom car offering options that may only have a take rate in the dozens.

The consumer simply paid the shipping and overhead costs for customization.

Now days the “custom car” is all but impossible because the cost of the customization is pennies on the dollar compared to the regulatory cost, you can’t divide a 25 million dollar regulatory cost over a few thousand cars.

That is why everything is standard at OEM and only the aftermarket can offer true options.


Compare the US for example to Europe, most US volume models offer at most 2 engine/ transmission options, in Europe the same car may have 6 or more drivetrain options and that is on a much smaller market with much lower volumes, legislation first and foremost makes the decision for the automakers, if this wasn’t the case the Euro zone would not have significantly more drivetrain selection than the US, they should have less.

This is where the benefits of globalized regulations come into play.

Europe and Asia can naturally offer more options because you can export vehicles between the markets, because of shared regulatory requirements.

Originally Posted by jamesqf

But if you already have most of the development &c done, as with say the '80s Toyota pickup, it costs nothing to keep making them, and very little to keep making incremental improvements.

Compare with computers, for instance. Intel doesn't start with a clean sheet for every new CPU, it keeps the same basic design and improves it, so you can run 30 year old software on the latest generation.

That's what Ford did with the US-only Focus and Ranger. Incremental improvements to outdated hardware.

And when they became too far out of sync with their global counterparts, they had to be dropped. You can only make so many incremental improvements to an old chassis. At some point, it becomes more expensive to improve it than to make an all-new one.

China is starting to get some of those. And for the same reason... cost savings.

China-only cars based on previous generation models.

But I believe the same fate will eventually befall them. They're going to die out in favor of globalized products with a wider appeal.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by niky

This is where the benefits of globalized regulations come into play.

Europe and Asia can naturally offer more options because you can export vehicles between the markets, because of shared regulatory .

Agreed,
at a minimum, I believe that used cars (over a model year) from other first world countries should automatically be compliant cross directionally between markets. That was how it was before Ronald Reagan’s gray market laws took effect.
Even if they left a tariff on it, at least you could put a little pressure on domestics and you could then see a small percentage of cars never offered make their way here.

I also believe that globalized standards would reduce cost and increase consumer satisfaction, the desires to protect the US auto market via regulatory cost probably loose auto makers more sales to the cost of compliance than gains from isolation.

Ah well, too bad so sad.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by niky

That's what Ford did with the US-only Focus and Ranger. Incremental improvements to outdated hardware.

But if you look at the aftermarket for say '80s Toyota pickups, you discover that the hardware (at least as far as the frame/chassis goes) isn't all that outdated. Indeed, it's arguably better than many later vehicles.

[niky]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

But if you look at the aftermarket for say '80s Toyota pickups, you discover that the hardware (at least as far as the frame/chassis goes) isn't all that outdated. Indeed, it's arguably better than many later vehicles.

An old ladder frame rig will, of course, be great for off-road enthusiasts.

That's why they kept recycling the Defender.

Why they keep reissuing old Land Cruisers... and why the ancient Nissan Patrol is still on the market.

Also why the new Suzuki Jimny is debuting with little more than a new body shell and some extra cross-member reinforcement on the ladder frame (and what appear to be extra triangulation points and reinforcements for side impact).

But they're rubbish for all other things a "new" car needs to be good at. Ride quality. Handling. Fuel economy. Refinement. Optimization for lightness (for fuel economy and material cost issues). Optimization for crash testing. Etcetera.

You can still buy old ladder frames. But they're not marketed to regular consumers. They're built for enthusiasts and field work, and the prices reflect this.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by niky

But they're rubbish for all other things a "new" car needs to be good at. Ride quality. Handling. Fuel economy. Refinement. Optimization for lightness (for fuel economy and material cost issues). Optimization for crash testing. Etcetera.

Disagree, at least with the points I know enough about to comment. Ride quality & handling are perfectly fine (at least since I replaced the steering bushings - a sub-$10 part). Fuel economy could of course be improved, but it's better than similar newer vehicles. Don't know exactly what you mean by "refinement", but adding a cupholder or two isn't exactly rocket science, and some of the other things I can think of I'd pay extra not to have :-)

[redpoint5]

Hey, if it's good enough for James, it's good enough for everyone. The James lense is the only one that matters after all. Who knows why manufacturers make anything that James doesn't buy.

[niky]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Disagree, at least with the points I know enough about to comment. Ride quality & handling are perfectly fine (at least since I replaced the steering bushings - a sub-$10 part). Fuel economy could of course be improved, but it's better than similar newer vehicles. Don't know exactly what you mean by "refinement", but adding a cupholder or two isn't exactly rocket science, and some of the other things I can think of I'd pay extra not to have :-)

The comment was in regard to purpose-built off-roaders. Not small pick-ups.

Buuuut...

I slalom new trucks every year as part of quality assessment. Your standard 80s Toyota Hilux can't hold a candle to a modern truck in terms of on-road performance and safety. Or refinement. Or load capacity. Or etcetera.

You or I might be perfectly fine with the compromises, and willing to buy a small ladder frame truck. People who actually buy them new aren't. The global compact pick-up class that grew out of the Hilux-Ranger market demographic has now grown to the point where Mercedes is willing to pitch rebadged Nissans as luxury items, where Ford had to ditch the Ranger nameplate due to cannibalization of F150 sales (the new Ranger is quite big).

Now nobody can get a compact pick-up anymore. Unless you're willing to buy a unibody conversion in South America, a sketchy 'thing' from China, or a bare-bones cab-forward "dropside" in Asia. The compact pick-up buyer no longer exists.

As buying demographics grow more prosperous, they start wanting nicer things. Bigger things. And even bigger things. Until you have to create a new vehicle to fill the void left by your ever-inflating model line-up. That said, nobody is trying to fill the void left by small pick-ups. Because all the market research tells them it's not worth their money. And I agree with the resarchers, because from years of handling magazine questions, I know what brand-new truck buyers want: Bigger, Better, Bestest.

That's how it goes.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by niky

China is starting to get some of those. And for the same reason... cost savings.

China-only cars based on previous generation models.

But I believe the same fate will eventually befall them. They're going to die out in favor of globalized products with a wider appeal.

Some of these vehicles designed specifically for China can actually also have some appeal in other regions. IIRC the Chevrolet Cavalier and the Sail are already available in Mexico, plus the Sail is also not unheard of in other countries closer to Brazil. I even saw some previous-generation ones in Uruguay.

As markets mature, more and more buyers are switching to automatics. Here in the Philippines, where we have NO intrinsic crash or emissions regulations, only a third of all consumer models offer manuals... mostly the cheaper cars... many crossovers and SUVs don't offer a stick. Being in the industry, I hang out with marketing people and product planners a lot. When the question of offering a manual variant for a new crossover or midsized sedan comes up, we laugh.

So, apart from the market becoming more "mature", what about the influence of JDM second-hand imports? At least in Paraguay, the prevalence of automatics might have been a result of this. When it comes to brand-new vehicles, the last one with Paraguayan plates and manual transmission I spotted was a Chinese SUV with its drivetrain being some random copy of older Isuzu designs.

In other Asian markets, manuals still dominate, but automatic uptake is on the rise, and automatic sales are predicted to outstrip manual sales in the future. In China, luxury cars are almost all autos. Only in the budget category do manuals rule. In Australia, autos dominate. In India, the last bastion of hairy chested balls-to-the-walls driving, MTs still dominate, but the AT segment is growing by leaps and bounds (helped in part by the popularity of cheap automated manuals).

The traffic volume might persuade many Chinese drivers to increase the pick rate for the automatics even in smaller econoboxes. Well, they might just copy some random Japanese transmissions as they frequently do anyway... Australia had some influence from the United States through the Canadian subsidiaries of Ford, GM and Chrysler which supplied RHD versions of American cars for overseas markets, even though Australian-made cars ended up having a higher local content than some of its counterparts in South Africa for example. When it comes to India, ease of repair with improvised resources might lead manuals to survive a little longer...

I'll be sad to see the stick go

I could really care less about a stick-shifter. What about paddle-shifters?

I was sad to see the manual choke go, too.

Dude...

[niky]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Some of these vehicles designed specifically for China can actually also have some appeal in other regions. IIRC the Chevrolet Cavalier and the Sail are already available in Mexico, plus the Sail is also not unheard of in other countries closer to Brazil. I even saw some previous-generation ones in Uruguay.

Yes, that's the one advantage China-only cars have over US-only cars... more applicable to developing markets that share Chinese tastes. Eventually, those developing markets will sign on to EURO emissions and NCAP requirements, though... but China has that covered... CNCAP is finally up to the same specs as Euro NCAP.

The Sail is quite popular here, but the turnover rate is suspiciously high... lots of one year olds selling at low prices. Have to investigate.

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

So, apart from the market becoming more "mature", what about the influence of JDM second-hand imports? At least in Paraguay, the prevalence of automatics might have been a result of this. When it comes to brand-new vehicles, the last one with Paraguayan plates and manual transmission I spotted was a Chinese SUV with its drivetrain being some random copy of older Isuzu designs.

The last of the super JDM secondhands from the 90's are finally clearing out. But with or without them, typically those wanting manuals are looking at cheaper secondhand cars, anyway.

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

The traffic volume might persuade many Chinese drivers to increase the pick rate for the automatics even in smaller econoboxes. Well, they might just copy some random Japanese transmissions as they frequently do anyway... Australia had some influence from the United States through the Canadian subsidiaries of Ford, GM and Chrysler which supplied RHD versions of American cars for overseas markets, even though Australian-made cars ended up having a higher local content than some of its counterparts in South Africa for example. When it comes to India, ease of repair with improvised resources might lead manuals to survive a little longer...

Chinese companies are now heavily investing in new AT technologies. AMTs are already popular, as they are in India, and CVTs are gaining ground. Several manufacturers have deals with companies like JATCO, others are building their own.

As for India... AMTs seem wildly popular there compared to anywhere... manual tranny ease of maintenance, automatic tranny convenience... some compromises, but easy to live with once you get used to the quirks. I hate the loathsome thing compared to a full manual, but if I had no choice, and if I were the one paying the fuel and maintenance bills, why not?

Last AMT I drove, the replacement clutch cost was less than my personal MT.

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

I could really care less about a stick-shifter. What about paddle-shifters?

If they come with a starter clutch, I'm fine with sequential paddles.

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Dude...

What can I say? I have my pet advocacies!

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by niky

Yes, that's the one advantage China-only cars have over US-only cars... more applicable to developing markets that share Chinese tastes. Eventually, those developing markets will sign on to EURO emissions and NCAP requirements, though... but China has that covered... CNCAP is finally up to the same specs as Euro NCAP.

It's not a matter of sharing tastes, it's a matter of low budget. Well, maybe if it has a Western badge instead of some obscure Chinese brand it also seems more attractive. When it comes to emissions, even though it's still usually enforced at a less strict stage compared to Europe, it seems to be enforced at a tougher pace than safety standards.

The last of the super JDM secondhands from the 90's are finally clearing out. But with or without them, typically those wanting manuals are looking at cheaper secondhand cars, anyway.

Nowadays due to the lack of manuals among the JDM second-hand arrivals in Paraguay, even those who in the past would prefer a manual basically have not too much choice by now.

Chinese companies are now heavily investing in new AT technologies. AMTs are already popular, as they are in India, and CVTs are gaining ground. Several manufacturers have deals with companies like JATCO, others are building their own.

I don't remember having ever seen a Chinese car fitted with AMT, even though some newer SUVs from JAC and Lifan now feature AT as an option.

As for India... AMTs seem wildly popular there compared to anywhere... manual tranny ease of maintenance, automatic tranny convenience... some compromises, but easy to live with once you get used to the quirks. I hate the loathsome thing compared to a full manual, but if I had no choice, and if I were the one paying the fuel and maintenance bills, why not?

Last AMT I drove, the replacement clutch cost was less than my personal MT.

Lower cost of maintenance compared to a conventional automatic has attracted mostly truck and bus fleets here, but in cars the AMT is still pointed out to be somewhat "inferior" to a conventional automatic, and most people dislike its rough behavior coming to a stop. Well, at least it applies to single-clutch ones (hadn't tried a dual-clutch yet).

If they come with a starter clutch, I'm fine with sequential paddles.

Are you serious? Starter clutch like earlier generations of Scania's Opticruise?