Are you ready, here they come!

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by darcane

That will double your fuel use and increase traffic congestion.

Sure, but when fuel is electricity, it will be cheap. The traffic congestion caused by people looping around the block looking for a non-existent parking spot will be eliminated.

I live 10 miles from downtown Portland, so unless fuel costs more than the parking fee, I'm sending the car home.

How would automated car fix that? Where I live now, all the traffic lights are triggered off sensors in the street.

Meshing through traffic at intersections will eliminate traffic lights altogether. There will be no stopping. This will save tons of energy and reduce the cost of traffic infrastructure.

I actually enjoy driving and a car is more to me than an appliance to get from point A to point B.

Me too. Fortunately, there will be plenty of opportunities to drive a car manually. Or, while the car is driving you somewhere, you could be playing the latest car driving simulation. Driving is fun, but racing is more fun.

Originally Posted by cbaber

If you look at major polls and surveys on the issue, about half of drivers are skeptical about an autonomous system. In one poll I found, 75% of respondents said they do not trust an autonomous system to take their kids to school. 60% said that a computer system doesn't have better decision making ability than humans. In another major poll 42% of respondents said autonomous cars were a bad idea, with 33% saying it was a good idea. Furthermore, people see a clear privacy risk, with over 70% believing private companies and the government could collect and abuse driving data with an autonomous system.

Can I get the source for your survey results? The thing is, the majority of people always oppose anything that is new. Once it's demonstrated to work for a while, people will change their minds. I can just imagine the distrust people had when automated traffic signals were first put in use. "What if the light turns green for everyone and causes an accident".

We're already ok with autopilot being used extensively in commercial flight. It's a very small increment in bravery to apply this to driving on the ground.

An autonomous system would collect location data and would be stored on a network, vulnerable to abuse by the government, private companies, and hackers. Just like Google collects your search data to deliver advertisements to you on the internet, there is a real possibility marketers and even automakers would take advantage of the data being collected by the car. And a large autonomous system would be a good target for hackers

And yet, people still sign up in droves to forfeit their anonymity and privacy on Facebook. There are certainly concerns that need to be addressed, but I doubt many will protest if data collection were to take place.

I like driving. I would not want to lose the ability to drive older cars. And there are a lot of people who feel this way. I think everyone should have a say, it's not a one-size-fits-all approach that should be used.

Agreed.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

There is no way any CPU can duplicate human intuition and anticipation in driving, at least not MY anticipation and intuition...

We get it; your intuition is faster than a computer and better than other humans.

An automated system would still preserve the ability to intervene if you intuit a dangerous situation. In the mean time, it would monitor a much larger number of things and react in fractions of a second.

This has already been used successfully in aviation for decades.

Your argument is similar to saying that not wearing a seat belt is safer than wearing one, because there are some situations where being ejected from the vehicle is safer than being strapped inside it.

Obviously, cars will not become autonomous until the research shows that it is more safe than manual driving.

Originally Posted by ecomodded

I am curious as to the Ultimate goal for these autonomous vehicles . once they are all up and running then what ? I don't get it , do they hope to take jobs from people with them ?

I sense that you are being facetious. Just in case you aren't, read through the previous comments to understand what the many advantages would be. In those comments, you will find no mention of "taking jobs from people".

As far as job elimination is concerned; it eventually happens with most jobs. We no longer have elevator operators, they had to get new jobs (and the elevators work autonomously without much issue).

Preserving jobs is not a goal of any rational person. However, adapting to an ever changing job market should be.

[cbaber]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Can I get the source for your survey results?

1 in 5 say they would never drive again if they had an autonomous car [w/poll] - Autoblog
The Big Worry About Driverless Cars? Losing Privacy, New Poll Finds. - Driver's Seat - WSJ

I think you are correct that public opinion will change as the technology becomes more common and understood. I am just saying there are real concerns and problems that will have to be solved, and the skeptics are often the best people to help shed light on those issues.

The biggest hurdle will be the data collection. Look at the uproar caused by the NSA scandal. And that is private cell phone usage from commercial carriers. Imagine the information accessible in city/state/fed servers dealing with autonomous traffic logs. Laws don't currently exist to handle privacy or access to this information. If you are driving an autonomous vehicle on public roads that sends data to various services (gps, traffic systems, automakers, etc.) it really isn't up to the individual as to who sees that data, unlike Facebook. We can certainly solve the problem with laws, but it is an issue and one of the many good reasons people could be skeptical about the future of autonomous cars.

[redpoint5]

I recently visited the in-laws in Colorado and got to drive an autonomous John Deere. It wasn't the most sophisticated tractor that's available, as I still had to do the turns at the end of a run, but once you make the turn and get within ~3 feet of the proper line and push a button, the steering goes under GPS control and is maintained within a 4" distance. The advanced systems can make the turns and keep under 1" of precision.

100 passes and 8hrs later, I was still marveling in the technology. Farming will one day be driverless, with a single technician monitoring a number of tractors.

[Xist]

Do passengers ever know when pilots use cruise control?

If computers are driving, hopefully they are better at route-planning than humans, which would mitigate congestion, and in theory, they would not need following distances that cater to human reflexes.

If you have a two-second following distance at 30 MPH and a computer could safely maintain a 0.9-second interval at all speeds, then couldn't you have the same cars on the same roads maintaining 60 MPH?

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I recently visited the in-laws in Colorado and got to drive an autonomous John Deere.

That kind of sounds like my old landlord purchasing a Roomba. Instead of vacuuming, he watched the robot vacuum. I guess that it was more entertaining, but did not save any time.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Xist

That kind of sounds like my old landlord purchasing a Roomba. Instead of vacuuming, he watched the robot vacuum. I guess that it was more entertaining, but did not save any time.

I have 2 Roombas (vacuum), a Scooba (floor mop), and a Neato (vacuum). I recently got married, so I haven't been using them much , but before that, the robots were the only thing keeping the house clean.

[freebeard]

I enjoy driving, but don't like having to drive. Bicycling even more so as it's the other drivers on the road that freak me out. I saw a kid today holding his smart phone right above the wheel so he could see everything except what he was pointed at. In the 60s we knew enough to keep the doobie below the windows.

So there will be more traffic circles and less traffic lights. The jobs that will go away: truck driver, bus driver, taxi driver, ...

We will—for sure—have autonomous cars before we have flying cars.

[user removed]

Obviously, cars will not become autonomous until the research shows that it is more safe than manual driving.

You got that right, but you missed one point, it won't be research that puts them on the road, not even close.

5 million BOND.

Researchers don't pay lawsuits, and lawyers run everything. Next to lawyers are insurance companies, whose job is to assign a cost to risk factors, and courts who assign blame. Computers don't die in accidents or get disfigured for life or exist in permanent pain with suicide or drug induced semi comas as their only option.

We get it; your intuition is faster than a computer and better than other humans.

I doubt you get it at all, my driving skills are no secret, the same knowledge is available to you or anyone else who is willing to put forth the effort. Maybe you do, maybe you dont. Your level of expertise seems to be secondary to your attempt to ridicule mine.

My driving skills are at a level where everyone I know wants me to drive when they travel with me. Porgram that into your autonomous vehicle and add your own experience.

Then try to get insurance, after posting your bond.

regards
Mech

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

Obviously, cars will not become autonomous until the research shows that it is more safe than manual driving.

You got that right, but you missed one point, it won't be research that puts them on the road, not even close.

5 million BOND.

I didn't miss that. It is the research that develops the technology, which eventually gets incorporated into consumer products. The researchers must be in a position to take manual control when the automation fails, and they are required to report such failures.

This all sounds reasonable to me.

I doubt you get it at all, my driving skills are no secret, the same knowledge is available to you or anyone else who is willing to put forth the effort. Maybe you do, maybe you dont. Your level of expertise seems to be secondary to your attempt to ridicule mine.

My driving skills are at a level where everyone I know wants me to drive when they travel with me. Porgram that into your autonomous vehicle and add your own experience.

Then try to get insurance, after posting your bond.

I'm not grasping your point here. I "ridiculed" you partially in jest, and partially to take a moment to self-reflect.

I always think I'm the best at everything too, and I'm often correct, but to assume this is always so, and that nothing can be made better, is an error in thinking.

My example is when it snowed last winter. I assumed that my superior snow driving skills would allow me to efficiently drive up a hill. No matter how carefully I feathered the throttle, I couldn't climb the grade. I decided to turn the VSS (traction control) on and see how it would do. Putting the throttle on the floor, the car allowed only the amount of power that the available traction could take. The car climbed the grade, recalculating and adjusting the throttle many times per second; a feat humans are incapable of achieving.

I anticipate that there are many hurdles to overcome in sensing the environment and assessing the threats. The human mind is very efficient at solving these problems, and computers are not, yet. One time, a ladder fell off a truck and I narrowly avoided it by checking my blind spot and swerving sharply into an adjacent lane. Perhaps a computer could have made the same calculation, but if it was a plastic grocery bag blowing across the road, you wouldn't want emergency maneuvering to kick in. Difficult problems for sure.

So, I'm not entirely sure what you are arguing. The technology will eventually be more safe than even the most seasoned and attentive human, and until then, manual control will remain an option (or the only option). Toyota already has Lane Keep Assist and Radar Cruise Control. The driver could conceivably pass out and the car would not leave the road or collide with approaching objects. This is the beginning of automated driving, meant to supplement the task of safely operating a vehicle.

I'm very curmudgeony for a young guy, and I would not recommend anyone try to out curmudgeon me.

[user removed]

It's not an argument. It's sharing different opinions,with the hope from both parties that there might be some new information made avaialble.

Average car on the road today is close to 12 years old (USA). I think technology that avoids accidents is exceptional.

I also understand the limitations (to some degree) of computers, having been raised by a father who was working with them since the 1950s.

It does not make me any authority, but it does give me 5 decades of experience. I tell people the last mistake made in my life will be the hearse going to the wrong cemetary.

Driving is a evolutionary process, a constant state of revision of techniques. After 48 years I am still learning and riding a motorcycle is a real test of defensive driving.

At some point in the future automated cars might exist, but if it reaches that point, my belief is that cars as we know them will not exist in that environment. Automated vehcle operation requires a much higher level of preventative maintenance that most people are willing to tolerate, just as those who advocate electric powered cars rarely consider the consequences of a vehicle population that is 12years old, much less 20 years old. Planned obsolescence will eliminate any car beyond a certain age and even if they magically became fully automated, every one sold new instantly. I'll be 83 years old and there will still be non automated cars on the road.

Why even bother with vehicles carrying their fuel supplies, regardless of their constitution when there are better options available.

Another problem with automated cars will be the lethargy of drivers whose skills are allowed to atrophy to the point where they will not be capable of operating a vehicle.

They even cling to the piloted combat aircraft, when the human being is the limiting factor in combat performance.

I drive a new car and I love the technology that has allowed it to function more efficiently. I love the idea of override systems to prevent catastrophe.

There is nothing wrong with the highest levels of self confidence. The problem arises when that self confidence evolves into conciet and the belief that others are not capable of the same skills or techniques.

My grandfather was illiterate, but when it came to his skills at commercial fishing he was a genius. With a brother killed in a schoolyard incident, his parents took him out of school in his first year and he started working with his father at the age of 6. Always try to understand that others who you do not know well, may appear to you to be of lower intelligence, but I have learned from functionally illiterate people, and I try to understand the circumstances and have found, like grandpa, that we are not well equipped to pass judgement on others.

regards
Mech