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Old 02-13-2020, 06:24 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Chinese EV sales in collapse

European EV sales are up, 400% in France and 500% in Italy but the world's biggest market is China. GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen projected EV sales in China to skyrocket, to produce monumental profits. Starting Dec 2019, an infectious disease outbreak forced China to mobilize strict quarantine measures in their major cities. The Lunar holiday is over and their economic engine must restart, workers must go back to work. The epidemic has frightened the people, delayed supply lines & some have closed production. The worldwide markets are holding off buying decisions. Chinese automakersí association, CPCA predicts the sale of new automobiles could fall by as much as 50% in February, following in the wake of a disastrous January that saw sales plunge 20%. The electric vehicle is even worse. BYD EVs fell 68% in January and Tesla China has not revealed their sales figures. Tesla China resumed Gigafactory 3 operations, maybe quixotic or to set an dedicated corporate example. https://www.usnews.com/news/business...g-market-slump

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Old 02-13-2020, 06:42 PM   #2 (permalink)
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China also reduced or eliminated EV subsidies, though I believe they still have nearly insurmountable hurdles to purchasing ICE vehicles in many places (all places?). I expect a strong rebound.

Worldwide (and US) EV sales were down 10% last year compared to 2018, so that itself suggests a fundamental problem with EVs. We're not there yet, not by a longshot. They need to find a minimum of $7,500 of cost savings in their manufacturing, enough to offset federal subsidies they will be loosing. The, I suspect they need another $2,500 cost savings to really get consumers motivated to purchase them in quantities comparable to ICE. That's $10k in either cost savings, improvements in technology, or some combination of $10k in value to the consumer.
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Old 02-13-2020, 07:27 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Meanwhile, Arcimoto at The Whiteaker, Eugene, Oregon, USofA is instantiating AI-modeled cast aluminum suspension parts.

Sadhguru on Coronavirus Outbreak in China
I thought this guy was going to be all inscrutable but at 4:20 he plays this: https://youtu.be/mP-mCfo4-f8?t=253.

Recommended.
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Old 02-13-2020, 08:23 PM   #4 (permalink)
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The Arcimoto qualifies for the $2,500 Oregon rebate. I think that applies to used ones too, once those become a thing and a person meets the moderate or less income threshold.

My new plan with my parents is to find the cheapest EV on the market and apply the $2500 rebate on it. Might find a $1,500 Leaf that way.
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Old 02-13-2020, 08:45 PM   #5 (permalink)
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https://youtube/mP-mCfo4-f8?t=253
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:55 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botsapper View Post
European EV sales are up, 400% in France and 500% in Italy but the world's biggest market is China. GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen projected EV sales in China to skyrocket, to produce monumental profits. Starting Dec 2019, an infectious disease outbreak forced China to mobilize strict quarantine measures in their major cities. The Lunar holiday is over and their economic engine must restart, workers must go back to work. The epidemic has frightened the people, delayed supply lines & some have closed production. The worldwide markets are holding off buying decisions. Chinese automakersí association, CPCA predicts the sale of new automobiles could fall by as much as 50% in February, following in the wake of a disastrous January that saw sales plunge 20%. The electric vehicle is even worse. BYD EVs fell 68% in January and Tesla China has not revealed their sales figures. Tesla China resumed Gigafactory 3 operations, maybe quixotic or to set an dedicated corporate example. https://www.usnews.com/news/business...g-market-slump
This virus is good for the earth less driving = less Green house gases
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:37 PM   #7 (permalink)
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This virus is good for the earth less driving = less Green house gases
Maybe this is how the dinosaurs died. Exotic food.
(it is speculated Covid-19 was contracted from exotic food animals)
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:21 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Cross-post from the Climate Change thread:
www.zerohedge.comChina Has Ground To A Halt: "On The Ground" Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
Quote:
Morgan Stanley suggested that real time measurements of Chinese pollution levels would provide a "quick and dirty" (no pun intended) way of observing if any of China's major metropolises had returned back to normal. What it found was that among some of the top Chinese cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chengdu, a clear pattern was evident – air pollution was only 20-50% of the historical average. As Morgan Stanley concluded, "This could imply that human activities such as traffic and industrial production within/close to those cities are running 50-80% below their potential capacity."
If China doesn't stop the contagion in two weeks, half their banks will fail (source forgotten ). I suspect we've seen the peak of air travel for some time.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:29 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Makes you wonder. The Dr. who warned about the virus in December, died... From the virus. Besides just banning people from going out and more lock downs I don't think they are doing much to control it or diagnose and treat it besides that.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:55 PM   #10 (permalink)
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What seems wrong to me is the explanation I hear for there being a "flu" season. The explanation is that people spend more time indoors, which means in closer proximity to others. The colder temperatures are always dismissed.

If China is telling people to stay indoors, that goes against the conventional wisdom of viruses spreading more easily that way.

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