The climate change movement: July 28, 1995 to August 14, 2020 RIP

[freebeard]

The paid climate deniers, who brought the topic up for the popular press, were stupid enough not to, look into, and realize that, 'heat island effects' had 'always' been included in the general circulation models.

Stupidity is a jailable offense? I think we're all at risk.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

So those "coal-rollers" are doing us a favor :P My question is, do the climate models take that into account?

Yes, as best they can. The guestimates have been integrated into the general circulation models since the 1980s.
We also now know that the human race was reduced to around 700 mating pairs after a 'global-cooling' event was precipitated by stratospheric aerosols from the super-volcano, Mount Tabo eruption, in what is now the Indonesian archipelago, hundreds of thousands of years ago.
Mary Shelley wrote 'Frankenstein' during 'the year without a summer' after an Icelandic volcanic eruption did a baby version of the same thing.
Benjamin Franklin coined the term 'parasol effect' to describe the phenom.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Stupidity is a jailable offense? I think we're all at risk.

Guilty as charged!

[freebeard]

www.youtube.com: This Climate Graph has a Nasty SecretI

I don't get it. Something about dropping out the uncertainty in each model and ascribing an overall uncertainty, and conflating absolute and deviation measures.

Then she says it could be worse. Couldn't it also be better?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Then she says it could be worse. Couldn't it also be better?

Optimism and resiliency aren't en vogue; catastrophism and fragility are.

That's changing though.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I don't get it. Something about dropping out the uncertainty in each model and ascribing an overall uncertainty, and conflating absolute and deviation measures.

Then she says it could be worse. Couldn't it also be better?

No, the IPCC has already been 'sugar-coating' every prediction they've ever published, shielding the unaware 'reader' from the 'margins' of extrapolations.
'ALL' general circulation models predict 'non-linear' warming.
They all use something akin to 'Monte Carlo' simulations just to tease out 'trends' from the scatterplots of data you see for the 14-different models.
'Imperfect' as they all are, they 'HAVE' successfully predicted global warming since 1988.
The 'baseline' 'absolute' temperature is the 'pre-industrial' age temperature of 58-something degrees-F, from around 1850.
We've already blown past the IPCC's 2-C target, we just won't 'experience' it until after we shut down all coal-fired power plants, globally, and give a few months for the sulfate aerosols to precipitate out of the sky, 'ending' the 'parasol-effect.'
You'll see the 80-foot sea level rise then. It's 'baked-in' to how things will unfold.
That's what she should be 'afraid' of.
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Presently, there's a pause in the Atlantic's main development zone for tropical storms, exactly due to the Saharan dust plume's 'parasol-effect,' limiting solar heating of the sea surface, which will resume as soon as the easterly winds abate. Come September, the water will be the hottest, and convective-available-potential -energy ( CAPE ) will be the most powerful, fueling the hurricanes back to CAT-5 capabilities.

[freebeard]

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Little_Ice_Age
Little Ice Age - Wikipedia
The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals. One began about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, ... The mid-19th century marked a notable change to eastern Australia's rainfall and humidity patterns. Tibby et al. (2018)

There's your baseline right there.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I don't get it. Something about dropping out the uncertainty in each model and ascribing an overall uncertainty, and conflating absolute and deviation measures.

Then she says it could be worse. Couldn't it also be better?

Could've replaced most of the coal fired generation capacity with nuclear in the 1990s but people who call them selves environmentalist blocked nukes and pushed for coal.

[freebeard]

There was a big wave of solar thermal in the 1930s that petered out.

[aerohead]

So far, 2024 is the hottest since records began.