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Old 01-16-2019, 01:46 PM   #61 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
It doesn't surprise me that a wealthy and relatively homogeneous group of people who have been conditioned to relinquish liberty might achieve 50% EV sales at great expense.

Those conditions don't exist in the US, and won't in the next 10 years.
What, do you really believe the Norwegians have relinquished their liberty?
Don't tell them or they'll just laugh in your face, in a polite and restrained way.

The Norwegians have a national debt of about 35% GDP, but also a state investment fund that's worth many times that. Norwegians are free, probably more than anyone else, and willing to change the world for the better.

It is their choice to do it this way. Either that, or somebody enslaved and forced them to drive Tesla Model S and Xes.

Not in the US?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/12...-sales-charts/
It is coming. Almost 10% of car sales in California, 2% US overall, but almost doubling every year. Could be 2022 for California and 2024 for the rest of the country.

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Old 01-16-2019, 05:39 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Further to Permalink #55, I'm not going to screen-cap the video I'm watching (Anonymous White House Official Exposes Trump's 'SHUTDOWN TRAP'...) but it shows the @realdonaldtrump Twitter feed, which gives a shout-out to VW for dropping $21 million dollars on Chattanooga.
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Old 01-16-2019, 08:13 PM   #63 (permalink)
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I was bullish on GM.... now I would bet the opposite, a drop in sales and stock value. They announced they will pursue EV's and not hybrids.

Meanwhile, everyone who buys a yukon denali or Cadillac Escalade could have purchased a Tesla model X but didn't and there is a reason they didn't.

I think EV's are the future, obviously, but a pure EV future is a long way off. Hybrids will need to be the vast majority before EV's become a majority of sales. And since hybrids will cause a huge upset to supply/demand of gasoline.... I dont see hybrids going away in my lifetime.


Edit: I would add that the break-even on cost of gas vs cost of electricity(including charge losses) for my volt is around $1.50 in the summer. So why bother with buying an EV if gas floats around $1.50 - $2.00/gal?
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:16 PM   #64 (permalink)
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I haven't forgiven GM for the Great Streetcar Conspiracy.

Quote:
Hybrids will need to be the vast majority before EV's become a majority of sales. And since hybrids will cause a huge upset to supply/demand of gasoline.... I dont see hybrids going away in my lifetime.
I don't see ICE 'going away'. Hybrids would cannibalize pure electric sales and impede adoption, while simultaneously propping up the liquid fuel distribution infrastructure.

Quote:
I would add that the break-even on cost of gas vs cost of electricity(including charge losses) for my volt is around $1.50 in the summer.
At how much per kilowatt hour? Given the variable cost of electricity (5—15¢) that could be 50¢—$!.50 or $1.50—4.50.

The thing about pure electrics is that with a solar microgrid you're freed not only from Big Oil but also Big AC.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:46 PM   #65 (permalink)
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I don't see ICE 'going away'. Hybrids would cannibalize pure electric sales and impede adoption, while simultaneously propping up the liquid fuel distribution infrastructure.
Liquid fuel distribution is already "propped up". Hybrids will cannibalize fossil fuels at least as much as it will cannibalize EVs. I'd say hybrids are a gateway drug, especially with respect to plug-ins.

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Old 01-17-2019, 02:59 AM   #66 (permalink)
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Old 01-17-2019, 06:21 AM   #67 (permalink)
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Quote:
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At how much per kilowatt hour? Given the variable cost of electricity (5—15¢) that could be 50¢—$!.50 or $1.50—4.50.
My average kwh cost is $0.1208, however; I use the lower rate of only the additional roughly 250 kwh that I added to the bill with the EV. So, roughly $0.105/kwh also factoring about 20% loss in the charger, bms, etc. So about $1.25 or $1.30 to charge 10kwh and drive 28 miles in winter or 37+ in summer.
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Old 01-17-2019, 07:14 AM   #68 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I'd say hybrids are a gateway drug, especially with respect to plug-ins.
Definitely. Once you see your car propel itself without using gas you want more of that.
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Old 01-17-2019, 07:31 AM   #69 (permalink)
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Having learned that 1 million EVs sold in China in 2018, I am now even more optimistic that EVs will outsale ICE in the next 10 years.

Hybrid are like Hydrogen, you have to pull a lot of extra stuff along, when really a lightweight, energy dense battery would be simpler and more efficient.

For trains, maybe semis (tractor-trailers), and ships, I see hydrogen (either hydrogen ICE or fuel cell) as being a more likely fit, due to the larger weight envelop they have.

The choices made by one company are not enough make me think this, it is that all of the auto manufacturers are going to release an EV here in the US by 2021-2022 (within 3 years). Even Ford, who had their own hybrid plugins, decided to pay VW for their EV platform to jumpstart their own EV vehicle production... Why would they pay millions of dollars to a a competing auto manufacturer? Probably down to the numbers. How much time to get EV sales going.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:59 AM   #70 (permalink)
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Ford seems obsessed with bottom line. When they wanted a mini truck they partnered with Mazda. Vw's ev products probably fit what Ford wants to offer in an electric sedan built in America. Some body mods out of plastic, slap on a blue oval, let someone else sweat the cost overrun in engineering.

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