Focus Electric Sales Woes

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by razor02097

Comparing apples to apples like a nissan leaf to a honda fit.... The leaf will still cost over $13,000 more over a 5 year ownership.

At this point in time, people don't buy electric vehicles to save money; they purchase them so they can "save the planet" and give themselves a high-five.

What is the 10yr cost of ownership between the Leaf and Fit? Perhaps in that time-frame you get closer to even.

For those choosing an electric for financial reasons, I believe the time is coming soon when getting a used electric will have a lower 5 year cost of ownership.

I see myself getting an all electric in about 6 years.

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Regular maintenance on today's ICE cars still costs you about $3000-3500 per 90K miles. The regular maintenance on an EV is virtually $0 for 90K miles...

Or you could do what my brother is doing and pay $1400 down payment on a solar PV installation, and then pay $22-122 *less* per month for electricity.

Your maintenance figures seem high. I pay about $20/year to change my own oil on the TSX (Euro Accord) once every 12,000 miles. I'll probably change brake fluid, engine coolant, gearbox oil and spark plugs myself once during the life of the car for a minimal cost.

I realize most people do none of their own maintenance, but even so, paying Jiffy Lube $20/year for an oil change and servicing the other fluids once per 100k miles isn't going to run $3k.

Home PV is not economically viable for most people without forcing tax payers to subsidize their experiment. This makes traditional grid energy the better option for most.

[NeilBlanchard]

The Leaf is a new platform and it is significantly larger than the Versa. It is definitely not a subcompact. We have fit 5 tall adults into the Leaf.

Even if you compare it to the Prius (which is a very close match for size) then the 90K miles would still cost you $6,120 in gasoline (50MPG at $3.40/gallon).

The 2013 Leaf S is $21,300 after the tax rebate, which is similar to the Prius.

I'm using approximate cost at the dealer: minor service every 5K at $75-90, intermediate service every 15K at $250-275, and major service every 30K at $450-500 = (12 x 75) + (3 x 250) + (3 x 450) = $3,000-3,405.

10 years at 20K miles per year comparison between the Prius and the Leaf:

The Prius will burn about 4,000 gallons of gasoline, and lets take a guesstimate of a lifetime average of $4.50 gallon, so that's $18,000 for gasoline. Regular service is 28 minor, 6 intermediate, and 6 major services, and I'll use the upper end of the estimates. So that is $2,520 for minor, $1,650 for intermediate, and $3,000 for major services; totaling $7,170 for service. The overall total cost is $25,170.

The Leaf would use (at most) 340Wh/mile for a total of 68,000kWh. At the average (in the US) cost of 12cents/kWh that totals $8,160 for electricity. My sister-in-law has had her Leaf for about a year now, and there is no regular maintenance until the transmission lubricant change at 150K miles or 15 year, which ever comes first. So, I'll say $250? That makes the overall total cost is $8,410.

The Leaf saves $16,760 over 200,000 miles vs the Prius.

At 15K miles per year, the Prius would burn 3,000 gallons x $4.50/gal = $13,500. Services is (20 x 90) + (5 x 275) + (4 x 500) = $5,175
Total is $18,675.

Same distance for the Leaf, it would use 51,000kWh x 12cents/kWh = $6,120 plus the $250, for a total of $6,370.

The Leaf saves $12,305 over 150,000 miles over the Prius.

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IF you spend $2,500 on a down payment for solar PV panels, and you lower your annual electric bill from $1,500 down to $696; saving $5,540 over the 10 years while paying for ALL the electricity to drive however far you want. This cost includes all the electricity used for a small ranch house including A/C and hot water, with two people living there for 10 years!

So if you count half of that for their Leaf and i MiEV, and they drive about 15K miles a year between the two cars: $348 per YEAR = 2.32 cents per mile. The total cost to drive an EV for 150,000 miles is $3,480 for electricity, and $250 (per car) for maintenance for a total of $3,730. You save $14,945 vs driving a Prius the same 150K miles.

You also are saving $8,040 on you electric bill over the same 10 years. That total savings is $22,985 in the 10 years of driving and electric bills.

[razor02097]

you think electric rates are going to stay the same in the next 10 years?


As I said. The leaf fills needs in a niche market. In order to own a leaf your commute needs to be less than 100 miles round trip and allow a MINIMUM 7 hour period to charge. You have to have some sort of way to plug your vehicle in to electrical power.. If your battery is depleted you're done for at least a few hours or more. Most Americans would have a difficult time having a leaf as a primary vehicle. If you draw it out long enough yeah a vehicle that costs less to fuel would be cheaper but I think your math is way off.

[Ryland]

Originally Posted by razor02097

I don't know much about solar PV systems but typically people would charge their electric vehicle at night no? Even if there is a battery array to hold the charge there would still be a draw on the grid.
All that aside the typical person isn't going to drop $35 to $40 grand on an electric vehicle then another $25 grand on a solar array to drive "Free" Instead you could buy a nice hybrid vehicle and fuel for a few years.

Peek loads are in the day time when the sun is out, the cheapest PV systems to install are grid tied systems that back feed the grid, my parents just happened to install one of those and they own an electric car, the part of their system that they just installed produces 2-3 times as much as it takes for their car to charge and more electricity then they use, that system's installed cost was just under $7,000, far below $25,000
I figured my Honda Civic VX averages about 45mpg, my electric car gets 250watt hours per mile, I drive about 9,000 miles per year, for me to drive 100% on solar would cost me about $3,000 if I installed it my self or according to one bid I got it would be $5,000 to have someone else install it, otherwise I spend $640 per year on gasoline, a PV system has a 25 year warranty, so assuming that I had someone else install it my per year cost for my electric fuel drops to $200 per year or $120 per year if I install it, over that same 25 years if I manage to keep using a car that gets 45mpg, I'd spend $16,000 on fuel, interest rates don't tend to keep up with inflation and fuel prices have been going up a little faster then inflation so if I put that $16,000 in the bank and only use it for buying fuel it's not going to last me 25 years, but PV panels will outlive their warranty, or at least all of them that I have seen have so far so if I buy PV panels there is a good chance that I'll have transportation energy for the rest of my life that is paid for and my price quotes were for PV that is made in the USA.

[NeilBlanchard]

The cost of large scale land-based wind power is now the least expensive electricity, and it is the fastest growing. And the cost of solar PV is coming down quickly. We will be seeing water based wind power come online, and tidal and wave power, too. Solar heat systems are also being built. Hydro has some room for growth in any existing dam site. Biogas can be made at each and every sewage treatment plant and large farm, and this can be stored and burned in existing gas plants.

Solar PV is a great fit for the grid - the peak demand is for A/C during the day, and the base load plants *need* to have a predictable use during the night. Wind tends to blow more at night, and when wind turbines are spread out and well planned, then they provide a predictable amount of power. Tidal power is *very* predictable, and wave power is consistent most of the time. We can have more storage, too - elevated hydro, underground compressed air, and thermal storage for solar heat plants are already here. Grid scale batteries are going to be here soon - and when there are enough EV's, their batteries can be used as part of a "smarter" grid to buffer energy.

Renewable energy gets less expensive over time, both because they (mostly) burn no fuel, and they have no pollution, and their "supply" is going to be here as long as the earth exists. So yes, I think that electricity costs will stay level, or even go down over time.

If we can avoid the extreme costs of climate change - yes, we can save money and save our shared home at the same time.

Edit: all the money we pay for electricity stays in our local economy. As we all know, we now are paying 1 Billion dollars or more PER DAY for foreign oil.

EV's are local economic power...

[wdb]

I love where this thread has gone! I'm truly anxious to buy an all-electric car, and I'd love to be able to generate my own power to feed it. (While I was at it I'd feed my house too, saving even more $.) Unfortunately I'd have to cut down about a hundred trees to do so, most of which are not on my property. Perhaps if I could convince my better half to move...

[fb_bf]

Originally Posted by razor02097

you think electric rates are going to stay the same in the next 10 years?


As I said. The leaf fills needs in a niche market. In order to own a leaf your commute needs to be less than 100 miles round trip and allow a MINIMUM 7 hour period to charge. You have to have some sort of way to plug your vehicle in to electrical power.. If your battery is depleted you're done for at least a few hours or more. Most Americans would have a difficult time having a leaf as a primary vehicle. If you draw it out long enough yeah a vehicle that costs less to fuel would be cheaper but I think your math is way off.

I have to reply to this idea. Many people have commutes less than 100 miles in one day. If you really look at what you drive in one day I suspect it is way less than 100 miles. Everybody talks about the time it takes to charge a car, but my cars sit in the garage for at least 10 hours every night. Why is everybody so worried about the time it takes to charge? A person owing an electric car will most likely have to own a gas version as well. (I think that is a premise for owning an electric car.) Many people already own two cars. When you need to go more than 100 miles in a day use your ICE car. My electric car can go over 100 miles on a charge. I don't even have the charger in the car because it is extra weight. I haven't even come close to being stranded. I suspect most electric car owners have adapted the same way I did. (not that there was much adaptation needed since I almost never drive 100 miles in a day) The best part of owning an electric car is that when I need to run an errand, it doesn't cost me more in gas than the item I need to get. I really think they are more usable than the general public believes. I do think that without rebates, they don't make sense. But with the price drops reported, and the rebates I think many people could save money in the long run.

[Ryland]

Buying a new car doesn't make sense, but people still do it.
I don't think that EV owners need to own a 2nd car that burns gasoline, I don't own a pickup truck so when I need one I borrow one and I have a number of friends who don't own cars that they trust to not fall apart on long trips so when they need to make a long trip they borrow my gasoline car and to go visit grandma we take the vehicle with the most leg room, that doesn't mean that I need to drive a crew cab pickup truck to work every day so that I can visit grandma and haul stuff a few times per year, but that is some peoples mind set!