It's all over but for the sweating?

[TheEnemy]

Here is the current status of my climate model, its looking better but is still lacking thermal inertia, albedo change, and CO2. I am working on the thermal inertia, and albedo change next, once I get the model to be more accurate in the past I will be able to accurately model how much we have affected the global temperature.



The temperature is in Kelvins, blue line is the measured/reconstructed, the maroon line is what I calculated.

[suspectnumber961]

Originally Posted by niky

Thought you'd already left on the last one...

Well....I left but had to come back to do some things. As a rep for the IGC I am required to be "on call". Here today...gone tomorrow.

[NeilBlanchard]

[radioranger]

What will happen if they start mandating 20 % gasahol, little by little no body without the means to buy a newer car will be on govt busses , city folks will stay put and the elite will be safe from the masses. in their enclaves in the country, burning wood. if they really wanted to stop warming why dont they do free stuff first, they are hung up on CO 2 because it is everything alive or moving, when the govt requires reflective roof coatings on houses and white cars that take less to cool then we'll talk but before that its all a population control issue, done on the sly, all this science is great but the wrong people are using it to take away our freedom

[niky]

Mandating all automotive finishes and roofing to be white isn't taking away freedom?

Perhaps we could take it one step further and mandate white clothing and bleached hair for all. Also, ban asphalt road surfaces (less albedo than cement).

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A lot of people fear population control. They needn't bother. Despite the billions spent on condom drives and information campaigns, the only thing that successfully stops population growth is prosperity and education. Smart people don't over-populate, but everyone else sure does.

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Gasohol is bad stuff, but you can harden fuel lines and valves to handle it.

[radioranger]

true get a new car , thus my point , and youre not taking away someones freedom to go where they want when they want by having a white car or roof, if warming is such a big deal do they free stuff first, thus the white roof concept hurts nobody and takes away no t a bit of your mobility. which is what they are after . the sun beams down approx one HP of energy per square yard facing the sun , multiply that by your roof and others and its a big number, if you could bounce back or not absorb some of that easily why not.

[radioranger]

also when I said population control I meant the living population you and the rest of us. other population controls not in my discussion

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by niky

...the only thing that successfully stops population growth is prosperity and education.

Would that it were so, but it's not. Prosperity may slow population growth a bit, but it hasn't stopped it.

[TheEnemy]

Here is the current state of my model, it has a feedback with the albedo, and inertia. The sum error^2 for 1000-1900 is 4.49.

What I don't have is volcano data from 1998 on.

What I had to guess on was the increase in effect of CO2 from 1998 to 2012.

Both of those is why there is a sudden jump in calculated temperature at the end that exceeds bot the slope and the actual measured temperature.

Things I have learned, though I have suspected prior is that the solar variation has to be greater than what we have observed, and that there may very well likely be an error in the measurements of the TSI data, and reconstructions. It is possible that there is more atmospheric sensitivity to solar variations, but my best guess is that the solar variation is varying more than we think.

Also it seems that the dips in temperature due to volcanic activity don't always have a lag in the return response.

There are also some other factors that seem to cause a change, or lack of change at different time periods that I am not accounting for. It could be error in one or more of the data due to proxies, or just error in my model that I have to work out.



Orange line is the recreation, blue line measured.

[TheEnemy]

Oh, and the system is very very sensitive to changes in albedo.