It's all over but for the sweating?

[niky]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

Famous "fact" from my youth is that everyone on Earth can fit onto the Isle of White



So, how would you deal with population growth ?

Magically transport everyone there, then watch as 99% of the population dies from rioting, trampling and starvation:
Everybody Jump

[freebeard]

20+ comments in 24 hours. I can see which thread everyone chose to spend their random Thurs afternoon in November in.

niky -- xkcd = awesome.

TheEnemy -- TL;DR

I've mentioned this twice in this thread. Did anyone take a look at it? Here's a screenshot:


How does this affect your calculations? Can we counter the warming trend and force it in the other direction at our whim? If only there were a mechanism to force a mass leveling-up of humanity's consciousness. Oh wait, we have one; so long as it's not censored by the International_Telecommunication_Union.

[TheEnemy]

TheEnemy -- TL;DR

Awww...

Question... What are we going to use as the feed stock to make the soil?

Why is the Arctic ice melting so fast over the last decade? Why have the northeast and northwest passages been open to regular shipping for the first time in recorded history? Why is the Greenland ice shelf melting faster than we have ever seen before? Why is virtually every glacier in the world melting faster and faster?

Global Warming these would happen no matter if the cause is natural or caused by us. That and the current weather patterns over and near the arctic has been spurring melting.

Why is the ocean level rising?

Because the land ice is melting

Why is the ocean getting more acidic?

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere largely from us.

Why is the tundra melting and releasing methane?

Global Warming this would happen no matter if the cause is natural or caused by us.

Why are tropical diseases spreading way beyond their "normal" ranges?

I would like to see a reference, but... Global Warming this would happen no matter if the cause is natural or caused by us.

It could very easily be a coincidence. And it has deviated from actual temperature rise over the last 8-10 years.



The value for solar forcing is the same value I calculated as a raw without any feedbacks what so ever. The value they use for CO2 is with full feedbacks. Most if not all feedbacks would work for either cause, so why are they not calculated in for solar forcing as well?

[niky]

Because it would be legally difficult to tax the sun.

[freebeard]

Question... What are we going to use as the feed stock to make the soil?

My understanding of the process is that it's carbon fixed from the atmosphere by Photosynthesis.

The value for solar forcing is the same value I calculated as a raw without any feedbacks what so ever. The value they use for CO2 is with full feedbacks. Most if not all feedbacks would work for either cause, so why are they not calculated in for solar forcing as well?

I see a chart of constituent atmospheric gases and whether they vote Republican or Democrat, with error bars. Where does the feedback come in? Is it assumed or buried in another chart?

[NeilBlanchard]

Most of the ocean level rise at the moment is due to warmer water being less dense. We are starting to see large land ice masses melt faster and faster - Greenland in particular. The jet stream is now much different than it was when there was more ice.

The Arctic temperatures are rising much faster than elsewhere, and that is also what is driving the weather changes. The amplifying effect of the lower albedo of dark color open water vs light color ice and snow is contributing more and more to melting. The release of methane from the tundra is another strong amplifying affect.

Rising carbon dioxide corresponding to rising temperatures is *not* a coincidence. We also know that the increase in carbon dioxide is coming from us burning fossil fuels because of the isotopes. So *this current* climate warming *is* being caused mostly by humans burning fossil fuels.

We are learning about systemic causation now with changes in storms and droughts and fires and floods and diseases. The ocean level around NYC is about 1 foot higher than 100 years ago, and it will be at least 2 feet higher at the end of this century. When the Greenland ice melts, it will be at least 20 feet higher.

Do you know that thick land ice affects the gravitational pull and lifts the ocean level around it? Did you know that there is so much ice on Antarctica that it is pushing the land under it *down* by almost a HALF MILE? The "extra" gravitational pull of that ice is causing the ocean level south of the equator to be much higher than even at the equator? The is a mountain in Ecuador that is closer to outer space than Everest - but since we measure the height of mountains from the ocean level it is not counted as taller.

Read up on it here: The 'Highest' Spot on Earth? : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

[TheEnemy]

Freebeard: Red is contribution to warming, blue cooling. The feedback is flat out burried. It was acknowledged years ago that the direct forcing of CO2 was small and that it was only the feedbacks such as less sea ice, more water vapor etc that brought the full contribution of CO2 out.

According to a NASA paper I read a few years ago the increase in solar output is approx 0.1%, or the same as the solar cycle. I am trying to redo my calculations.

Solar output is about 1350w/m^2

The average Albedo for earth is 0.3, which means the earth absorbs 70% of the energy from the sun.

The rato going from circle (what the sun sees) to sphere (total earth surface) is 1:4

So 1350*0.7 = 945w/m^2 (absorbed)

(945*0.001)/4 = 0.236w/m^2 increase due to just solar forcing with no feedbacks. (higher but within their error bars)

Neil: All of those effects would happen no matter the cause of global warming.

Edit to add: Neil, I support what you and others do on this site, even though I don't support the reason. There are other more immediate reasons to reduce, or move away from burning fossil fuels.

[Arragonis]

I note they term CO2 a long lived gas - how long does it last - e.g. if I breathe out now when does the CO2 content get removed, and where does it go ?

[gone-ot]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

I note they term CO2 a long lived gas - how long does it last - e.g. if I breathe out now when does the CO2 content get removed, and where does it go ?

How much CO2 has been sequestered in oceans over the 4.56-billions of year of earths existance? Over one-fifth of earth crust is carbonates (~22%).

[Arragonis]

How long have the oceans existed ?