The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zackary

Imagine if in the early days of the automobile people decided not to try different technologies because they weren't the absolute best for their time period? Hitler told Ferdinand Porsche that he wanted him to develop a 4WD, front engine, water cooled diesel car as the original "Kraft durch Freude" car. Was that the absolute best tech at that time? Sounds like it to me. Would it have sold like the VW Beetle ended up selling? Doubt it!

In the end the rear-engined RWD layout provided some reasonable off-road ability, at a considerably lower cost than 4WD would. When it comes to ICE vs. EV, the same way a Diesel engine small enough to fit into a Beetle and as easy to service as the boxer while providing comparable performance wasn't available by then, cost of batteries and their tollerance to temperature oscillation might lead an EV unsuitable to some perspective users.

[Isaac Zackary]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

... cost of batteries and their tollerance to temperature oscillation might lead an EV unsuitable to some perspective users.

Exactly. And this is why I say there should be interest of developing other battery technologies. Right now the focus is on making EV's as much like ICEV's as much as possible. And lithium ion seems to be the best for fulfilling that ideology. But lithium ion might not work for everyone in every part of the world. And other types of batteries might be better than lithium in certain applications or for certain reasons. And focusing on just one battery limits what might be possible.

Right now I can get a Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf Plus or Tesla 3 all for around $35,000/$40,000, all with about 225 mile range (unless I pay extra or less, depending on the car) and all with similar problems of not having a great battery life in hot places and not having great performance and range in cold places. If something in those figures don't work for me, no EV will work. I really don't have any other options. So what's the alternative? The only alternative is not to buy an EV!

[slowmover]

Originally Posted by Taylor95

I suspect that with the rise of EVs, oil will be cheaper longer than 20 years. Some estimate that we have in between 50 and 250 years of oil left in the earth.

https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-oil-left.aspx

BP estimated 53 years in 2013, but they were basing that only on proved reserves. In the 1980s, people predicted that we would run out of oil in 31 years. I'm sure that BPs estimate will also fall short; improved technology will allow us to harvest more oil from other sources.

I think VW is hasty in making the statement that in 2020 they will not be developing new ICE engines.

Tech improvements are capital invested. What’s the return on a product declining in use yet more expensive to produce?

EV is a pipe dream. (“Smoke ‘em if ya got ‘em”).

The prayer that non fossil fuel sources will “save” the world economy is a hoot.

.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zackary

The question is if the EV is:
And by EV I mean ones that run on lithium ion batteries. There are several kinds of batteries. Maybe lithium ion is as good as it gets. But will that be enough to turn people over?

Not while gas is so cheap

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by slowmover

Tech improvements are capital invested. What’s the return on a product declining in use yet more expensive to produce?

EV is a pipe dream. (“Smoke ‘em if ya got ‘em”).

The prayer that non fossil fuel sources will “save” the world economy is a hoot.

.

Exactly. I suspect that supply won't be a problem in the foreseeable future once technology makes it possible to harvest crude from other sources. What we have now is OPEC trying to drive prices up to have a better profit margin...

[Isaac Zackary]

Originally Posted by sendler

Not while gas is so cheap

Ya, that's pretty much it right now. But that and several other reasons pertaining to each sector of the market.

Millennials, in general, aren't buying new cars. That's anyone under 40 years old! Although there has been a lot of stereotyping millennials as being cheap lazy videogame addicts that would rather live in their mom's basement than to go do something productive, the fact is that they simply make less money than previous generations (or things cost more, however you want to look at it). And this basically forces them to buy cheap used cars. If you could make a cheap-as-used EV that's not at too much of a disadvantage or even has certain advantages over gasoline cars, the things would sell like hotcakes.

The majority of new car buyers are those people that are 40 years old and up. Many even do the 5 year thing where they get a new car every 5 years. But by that age they are pretty much set on what they like in a car. In this sector the EV must be a gasoline car clone in many ways that's in some way better than gasoline, but close to the same price.

Commercial buyers a lot of times look for something that makes sense for productivity, price per mile and the opinion of the public. In this area fuel mileage does matter a lot. But of course not at the expense of other factors.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zackary

Ya, that's pretty much it right now. But that and several other reasons pertaining to each sector of the market.

Millennials, in general, aren't buying new cars. That's anyone under 40 years old! Although there has been a lot of stereotyping millennials as being cheap lazy videogame addicts that would rather live in their mom's basement than to go do something productive, the fact is that they simply make less money than previous generations (or things cost more, however you want to look at it). And this basically forces them to buy cheap used cars. If you could make a cheap-as-used EV that's not at too much of a disadvantage or even has certain advantages over gasoline cars, the things would sell like hotcakes.

The majority of new car buyers are those people that are 40 years old and up. Many even do the 5 year thing where they get a new car every 5 years. But by that age they are pretty much set on what they like in a car. In this sector the EV must be a gasoline car clone in many ways that's in some way better than gasoline, but close to the same price.

Commercial buyers a lot of times look for something that makes sense for productivity, price per mile and the opinion of the public. In this area fuel mileage does matter a lot. But of course not at the expense of other factors.

Very true. I've had my car for almost 9 years now and in not thinking about getting a newer one. A lot of people I know are the same. In this aspect EVs have a big hurdle to overcome. By the time used EVs are cheap, they may need the battery pack replaced which will cost several thousand. If the cost of batteries doesn't decline significantly, EVs may never become mainstream among the used car population. Battery replacement will be an inevitable part of EV maintenance after perhaps 200,000 miles and 15 years of use.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zackary

Exactly. And this is why I say there should be interest of developing other battery technologies. Right now the focus is on making EV's as much like ICEV's as much as possible. And lithium ion seems to be the best for fulfilling that ideology. But lithium ion might not work for everyone in every part of the world. And other types of batteries might be better than lithium in certain applications or for certain reasons. And focusing on just one battery limits what might be possible.

Carbon-based capacitors might fare well under a wider range of environments, but their quick charge and discharge cycles are challenging.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by Taylor95

Exactly. I suspect that supply won't be a problem in the foreseeable future once technology makes it possible to harvest crude from other sources. What we have now is OPEC trying to drive prices up to have a better profit margin...

Actually OPEC has worked to drive oil price down since they are the only producers who can make money at $50 oil. USA fracked oil is bilking their investors and running at a slight loss at that price. Any region that hurries to squeeze out it's remaining oil now is a fool. 30 years from now any remaining oil will be invaluable for mining, farming, and construction. It will be a miracle aquisition of sapience if humans can avert World War III during the comming collapse and reorganization.
.

What time frame do you foresee as the future? 20-30 years? What are "they" going to do 100 years from now when natural gas is also gone? 1,000years? How long do you think it takes to replace all infrastructure for 8 billion people to live without oil which gives us 35% of primary energy. How do we build these new energy sources and replacement infrastructure and electrification without affordable liquid fuel for our big machines if we continue to squander it in 20 mpg SUV's until it is too late to change?

[RedDevil]

While many focus on electrifying cars to reduce pollution, some of the worst is caused by two-stroke mopeds, scooters and rickshaws. That is...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/66391774.cms

An electric-vehicle revolution is gaining ground in India, and it has nothing to do with cars.

The South Asian nation is home to about 1.5 million battery-powered, three-wheeled rickshaws – a fleet bigger than the total number of electric passenger cars sold in China since 2011. But while the world's largest auto market dangled significant subsidies to encourage purchases of battery-powered cars, India’s e-movement hardly got a hand from the state.

Rather, drivers of the ubiquitous three-wheelers weaving through crowded, smoggy streets discovered that e-rickshaws are quieter, faster, cleaner and cheaper to maintain than a traditional auto rickshaw. They also are less strenuous than cycle rickshaws, which require all-day peddling. So with more rides possible in a day, the e-rickshaws are proving more lucrative.

A grass-roots revolution; no subsidies, yet it takes off big. Tipping point passed?