Small / economy car deathwatch: we've passed "peak econobox" again

[JSH]

Originally Posted by freebeard

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Looking forward, the only company that is cutting prices and preserving margins is Tesla. I heard it said that doubling the production numbers reduces selling price by 15%. ....each time.

Who will be first with a sub$20K bullet-proof paintless hot hatchback out of Mexico?

Tesla is cutting prices to boost sales. They will miss their growth target again this year which will be 2 years in a row. The Model 3 / Y makes up 95% of their global sales and they are reaching the volume limit of individual models. (Historically about 1 to 1.5 million per year globally)

Any future Tesla small car model is years from production and Tesla has never hit announced sales price. Their last model is coming is 50% over the promised price

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

The Model 3 / Y makes up 95% of their global sales and they are reaching the volume limit of individual models.

Demand limit, or production line limits?

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by JSH

Any future Tesla small car model is years from production and Tesla has never hit announced sales price. Their last model is coming is 50% over the promised price

Same with Arcimoto, $12K became $20K.

[Isaac Zachary]

"Economy car death watch"

By 2025, all new cars in the USA will be large +$20k vehicles. No more small eco cars. The only small vehicles will be clasified as motorcycles.

Think big!

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=htt...ae8ce11afc2fc0

[Ecky]

In decline here too, but still alive and well.

Suzuki made the most recent Swift a whole lot better a few years ago. The cut more than 200lbs out of the latest generation of car, and it's available in a 1.4L turbocharged mild hybrid 6 speed, in addition to 1.0L and 1.25L versions (turbocharged or not, hybrid or not, all with manual options). The 1.25L is rated for 57mpg combined, while the 1.4 turbo hybid is rated at 50mpg combined. The Swift starts around $13,000usd.

Lots of Chinese and Korean small cars are also becoming available, in both EV and ICE variants. I'm seeing a lot of Ora, BYD, GWM, Haval, MG, Ssangyong, etc. in addition to the typical European options (e.g. Citroen, Renault) and even a few Indian vehicles.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Same with Arcimoto, $12K became $20K.

Arcimoto never had a viable business plan. Nobody should have believed the announced price as even a large company with economy of scale was charcong much more for similar vehicles. On the other hand a startup with no manufacturing experience doesnt know what they dont know.

On the other hand Musk just likes to exaggerate: timelines, features, price he just throws out whatever he thinks sounds good and knows that his fans and shareholders are unlikely to hold him accountable

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Demand limit, or production line limits?

Demand limited. If we believe Tesla’s stated production capacity they can build 3 million vehicles per year. They are on track to build 1.8 million. That is 37% growth year over year when their stated goal is 50% growth, every year, for 10 years. Last year their growth was 40% YoY.

Then there is the fact that Tesla is cutting prices - a lot - in all their major markets. They would not do that if they had strong demand, a large backlog if orders, and no extra production capacity.

[Piotrsko]

If tesla had no extra production capacity...... boggles the mind. Causes doomsday. Makes Elon more insufferable.

[mpg_numbers_guy]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I saw a Ford Maverik for the first time. They are huge. I thought it would be smaller, but no, these are about the size, if not bigger, than what full sized trucks used to be.

Mavericks are the new Rangers, Rangers are the new F150s, F150s are new F250s, etc.

Almost all vehicles are trending this way. The Civic is massive compared to a 20 year old Accord.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

If tesla had no extra production capacity...... boggles the mind. Causes doomsday. Makes Elon more insufferable.

It just means they aren’t worth nearly the current valuation of $755 billion. They are about a $100 billion company.