Small / economy car deathwatch: we've passed "peak econobox" again

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by JSH

The Cybertruck does not have an exoskeleton. That was just Musk's fever dream years ago.

Disagree. The architecture is basically four composite boxes, the wheelwells, made up of half the casting and a sheet of stainless steel. These are connected by a three-hinged arch connecting and triangulating front and back. Totally different to a box cab.

edit: The Canoo pickup is supposed to be $22K. Here're the features and benefits:

PICKUP TRUCK FEATURES | CANOO

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Now I know someone will complain that I did this, but I used Edmund's 5 Year True Cost to Own (because, well I'm lazy) and looked at a lot of the 2023 manual transmission cars available in the USA (because it has to have a manual IMO). I was surprised what Edmund's had to say:

1. Nissan Versa $34,917 ($9,583 fuel)
2. Volkswagen Jetta $36,097 ($8,453 fuel)
3. Honda Civic $38,710 ($10,973 fuel)
4. Subaru Impreza $39,078 ($11,058 fuel)
5. MINI Hardtop Cooper Classic $40,438 ($24,923 fuel)
6. Kia Forte GT $41,816 ($11,058 fuel)
7. Mazda 3 Hatchback $42,895 ($9,583 fuel)
8. Volkswagen Golf GTI $46,628 ($10,655 fuel)
9. Toyota Corolla GR N/A (N/A fuel)
10. Acura Integra $50,528 ($11,335 fuel)
11. Subaru WRX $51,564 ($15,461 fuel)
12. Hyundai Elantra $51,804 ($13,603)

If Edmunds is correct, or at least my circumstances were near what Edmunds says, the Volkswagen Jetta would seem like the logical answer, because, well, it's a Volkswagen, and because it gets the best fuel mileage out of any manual transmission car in the USA.

Have you owned a late-model VW? They aren't known for reliability and they have expensive maintenance.

I won't complain about you deciding to only look at manuals - I'll just point out that it goes against your stated goal of trying to reduce the cost to own a vehicle. That VW Jetta is the most fuel efficient manual sold in the USA and only manages 34 mpg EPA combined.

Edmund's TCO for a Corolla Hybrid 2WD is $30,936 ($6,737 for fuel) Is driving a manual VW worth paying $1,000 extra a year?

Camry Hybrid - $34,864 ($6,467 for Fuel)
CR-V Hybrid 2WD - $34,745 (8,421 for Fuel)

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by JSH

Have you owned a late-model VW? They aren't known for reliability and they have expensive maintenance.

Blame it on the TSI... Had more Volkswagen models remained available with a non-turbo gasser, its reliability records would still be reasonable to say the least.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

Have you owned a late-model VW? They aren't known for reliability and they have expensive maintenance.

Ya, after looking at Consumer Reports, they basically said the same.

Originally Posted by JSH

I won't complain about you deciding to only look at manuals - I'll just point out that it goes against your stated goal of trying to reduce the cost to own a vehicle. That VW Jetta is the most fuel efficient manual sold in the USA and only manages 34 mpg EPA combined.

Edmund's TCO for a Corolla Hybrid 2WD is $30,936 ($6,737 for fuel) Is driving a manual VW worth paying $1,000 extra a year?

Camry Hybrid - $34,864 ($6,467 for Fuel)
CR-V Hybrid 2WD - $34,745 (8,421 for Fuel)

I think my prices are higher, perhaps because of my ZIP code and how Edmunds calculates it. The 2023 Corolla Hybrid LE comes out to $34,707 when I do it. So yes, still cheaper than all the cars on the list, but more like $278 more per year or $23 more per month to drive the stick shift VW than the Corolla Hybrid.

Back a few posts:

Originally Posted by JSH

Which shows how much of a value cars are today. Automakers have successfully held prices below the rate of inflation for decades while making them exponentially better.

A 1984 Honda Accord LX sedan had an 86 hp 1.8L 4 cylinder mated to a 4 speed auto. It averaged only 24 mpg. All this for $9,941 ($29,046 in 2023 dollars)

A 2024 Honda Civic LX has a 158 hp 2.0L 4 cylinder with a CVT. It is 17% larger than that 84 Accord. It averages 33 mpg and has all sorts of technology and safety features not even imagined on something like a 1984 Mercedes S-Class. All for the low price of $23,950.

I was thinking about this. But while true, I don't think it addresses the sort of elephant in the room. That the entrance level vehicle is dissapearing, at least if you go by car price.

• Vehicle, year, price then, price 2023 adjusted for inflation
• VW Beetle 1964 $1,600 $15,848
• Honda Civic 1973 $2,200 $15,214
• Hyundai Pony 1984 $5,795 $17,126
• Yugo GV 1987 $3,995 $10,798
• Hyundai Excel 1989: $5,499 $13,617

Ok, so at least the Yugo probably doesn't deserve to be a on a I-want-a-car-like-this list. That may be the same for a few others on this list. When I was a kid, my mom had a brand new Hyundai in the 1980's that she loved, so if I go by her word those were good cars although cheap in price.

Anywho, back to the point: after 2024 there will be no more cars in the USA under $20,000. Nissan Versa, Mitsubishi Mirage and Kia Rio will all be cars of the past. So yes, there were cars that with inflation cost less than $20,000 many decades ago, yet now there soon will be none.

Of course, as we've kind of already pointed out, if we go by total cost of ownership then even a manual Nissan Versa still costs more (according to Edmunds at least) than a Toyota Corolla Hybrid, even though the Corolla starts out at over $24,000 and the Nissan Versa at over $17,000 (base models plus destination charges).

This makes me think, what was the total cost of ownership of cars of yesteryear, like the ones on the list on this post? How did fuel prices affect the costs of these vehicles? They were less reliable and needed more maintenance, so how did that affect the overall cost? They also didn't usually last as long, so again adding to total cost of ownership. (Although it seems to me that some 1980's and 1990's cars were a bit overbuilt and tend to last longer than the 2000's and beyond, but that could just be my nearsighted observations). And what was the used car prices like back then? Did people own a car for 5 years and sell it for around half or was it pretty much worthless by that point? And how did that help or hinder used car buyers?

On the other hand the cost to repair vehicles seems to have gone up. So while cars need less maintenance in general, when you do need a repair it just feels like it costs more than it used too. Of course this is also based on personal observations.

Another question I have in my head is if we are comparing older car prices using inflation based off prices of goods or off of wages? And if we go by wages, are we going by average wages or by median wages? It just appears (again going by my intuition, opinion and limted observations) it just appears that there was a time in the USA that an individual could single handedly provide for a family of some 4 or 5 or more members including a house and at least one car, where as now you need two income workers and you still don't have enough for a house or even a new car. (Unless you move to Michigan of course where at least you'd be able to afford a new house and perhaps some day a new car.)

[Piotrsko]

Hmmm lets see: back in 1980 I was making $2.33 @ hr. Considered good money. Rent was 300 @ month in Torrance for a 2bed 1bath house, groceries were <>$40 @ week. Howard paid my Health insurance which was "just fix it, cost aint an issue" car payments on a 78 dodge surfer van were $40 @month, insurance for me was $600 @ year on assigned risk, phone bill was $10. Think I didn't have cable.

2 years later, I had house payments on a no down VA loan @ 800 @month for a house 1/2 block downwind from the freeway in Hawthorne where I could bicycle to work, pay rate increased to 2.50 @ hr. Going to school full time made the house payments between work and VA benefits but absolutely no social life. Didn't care, had new wife.

Net difference: some things were cheaper relative to pay per hour, some not. freebeard probably has similar data same era.

[freebeard]

freebeard probably has similar data same era.

If I do I can't find it. I do recall that my first car, a ten-year-old Studebaker cost $100. The second car I bought from the Dallas, OR, Red Cross. I talked to a minister and talked him down from $100 to $80.

First (and only) house bought was $15,000 in 1975. Behind the tree in this picture.



I forget what I paid for the Beetle, but I traded those Rader mags for a whole car, the Dasher, in 2017.

[Bicycle Bob]

OT, but I must chime in. When rent got nuts in BC in '06, I moved to my car, but I also put gas in the tank and toured an area with declining population until I found a house for $15,000 that only needed paint, just a block from basic shopping. Goes well with my $200 pa car budget for depreciation and parts.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Another question I have in my head is if we are comparing older car prices using inflation based off prices of goods or off of wages? And if we go by wages, are we going by average wages or by median wages? It just appears (again going by my intuition, opinion and limted observations) it just appears that there was a time in the USA that an individual could single handedly provide for a family of some 4 or 5 or more members including a house and at least one car, where as now you need two income workers and you still don't have enough for a house or even a new car. (Unless you move to Michigan of course where at least you'd be able to afford a new house and perhaps some day a new car.)

The Federal Reserve has that data going back to 1979

The median worker is doing quite a bit better today than when you could buy a 1980's Hyundai. Which were junk and rusted away to nothing in no time. Hyundai started their 10 year warranty to buy back customer confidence because their early cars were so bad.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

The Federal Reserve has that data going back to 1979

The median worker is doing quite a bit better today than when you could buy a 1980's Hyundai. Which were junk and rusted away to nothing in no time. Hyundai started their 10 year warranty to buy back customer confidence because their early cars were so bad.

I take it that the econobox has never really existed. The average weekly wage has gone up some 15% since the 1980's until July of 2023. A lot of new cars, such as a new Corolla, are cheaper now than back then, but still not exactly within the price range of a median individual wage of around $40,000 per year.

The most I've seen recommended is 50% of what your yearly wage is, so that would put an individual making a median wage of $40,000 at a $20,000 buget, enough for a Nissan Versa, but not enough for anything after 2024. At that recommendation a family making a median wage of $70,000 can afford a $35,000 vehicle if you go by the 50% rule, so that would allow for a single new car or crossover, but not a new minivan.

Which I guess means the real econobox has been and always will be the used car.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I take it that the econobox has never really existed. The average weekly wage has gone up some 15% since the 1980's until July of 2023. A lot of new cars, such as a new Corolla, are cheaper now than back then, but still not exactly within the price range of a median individual wage of around $40,000 per year.

The most I've seen recommended is 50% of what your yearly wage is, so that would put an individual making a median wage of $40,000 at a $20,000 buget, enough for a Nissan Versa, but not enough for anything after 2024. At that recommendation a family making a median wage of $70,000 can afford a $35,000 vehicle if you go by the 50% rule, so that would allow for a single new car or crossover, but not a new minivan.

Which I guess means the real econobox has been and always will be the used car.

Cars aren't for everyone, they are for wealthy people. Most of humanity has not owned a car of any type or condition. That said, I could afford any Lexus brand new off the lot at the age of 25 on a $40k wage, because I saved and had few expenses. When I went to a Lexus dealership, the salesman gave me no time of day, which was appropriate because I wasn't really serious about paying cash for any car on the lot I wanted.

I don't pay much attention to "rules" because they are being promoted by people with different priorities and agendas. Both my wife and I are barely into 6 figure earning, but the most we've spent on a car to date is the 2006 Acura TSX I paid $17k for. I've read Rich Dad, Poor Dad in high school. I understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The liabilities I most value are the children, not the things that depreciate over time.

I'm 42, I think, and I've not ever bought a new car. I've only once bought a car from a dealership, but only because they sold the car at private party value. I might buy a new car someday, but I'm very curious what that circumstance would be. Would have to be the dual motor Cybertruck near $50k; possibly a Pacifica minivan if subsidies made it fairly cheap.

Your example of a $40k earning only having $20k to spend on a vehicle seems silly to me. I've never even spent $20k on a vehicle, and I've had nice vehicles.