Tesla going privet , then going under.

[RedDevil]

They are building 5000 Model 3's a week, which is twice as many as they did just 2 months ago. They want to double production again before the end of the year, which does not seem impossible.

Tesla sold over 3600 cars in our country over the first half of this year.
So what you'd think.
But it is over 1% of total car sales (around 300K).
It is also more than all other EV's and hybrids together. And it is just Model S and X, we don't get the 3 yet. The Model S is well in the top 10 of popular models.
Now if you look at the luxury car market, they completely blow away the competition.

EVs are popular as gas is expensive over here and there's almost no usage tax for leased EV cars.
If you lease a company car, a set % of the purchase price is added to your income before tax. The % is lower for 'clean' cars. But next year the low % will only apply up to € 50,000; anything over gets a 'luxury' taxation for new car sales (existing leased cars keep their original taxation).
So if you want a fully loaded company Model S or X P100D, the time to order is now.
Next year the loaded S/X boom will be over but the Model 3 fits nicely in the tax range, even the long range version.

That 1.2% of the market is calculated on a per car base. But in a marked dominated by subcompact sales, the trade value of these expensive cars will be closer to 8% of the total sales value. Which makes Tesla one of the biggest in our market.

The Model 3 is much more suited for our market size wise and cost wise. We are looking out for it to enter our market. It will be huge.

The potential is enormous. Yes, Tesla needs to produce profit some time, but not investing now might get in the way of expanding to the big volumes you need to really make profit.

[redpoint5]

I'm guessing that when US demand collapses due to the expiring tax credit over the next 16 months, Tesla will begin selling the Model 3 in other global markets to keep production near full capacity. Just as demand in these markets begins to taper off, the Model Y will enter production and a whole new cycle of demand will start over again, keeping production at near capacity. Rinse and repeat for as long as the game can be played.

[oil pan 4]

Looks like tesla needed that shady Goldman Sachs loan to double their production capacity.
If they did double production and got that wait time down to around 8 or 9 months that doesn't seem unreasonable.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I'm guessing that when US demand collapses due to the expiring tax credit over the next 16 months...

Can't see that mattering all that much, at least for the Model S sales. The people I see buying them are those to whom the tax credit is spare change. (Like my friends' neighbors, both physicians, who have 3, maybe 4 - I'm not sure if their kids each have one, or share.)

[redpoint5]

The tax credit will be huge. Many of the reservation holders for the Model 3 are waiting for the $35k base model, and losing the additional $7,500 credit will greatly impact demand for these lower priced EVs. When Nissan is selling a 250 mile range version of the Leaf and still has credits available, Tesla will lose business.

[Piotrsko]

+! ^^

the wind generation system in the US almost died back 15 years ago when the tax credits and the rate mandates expired.

will it kill TESLA? maybe not since they seem to be a snob niche market.

[redpoint5]

As I've said above, I expect Tesla to concentrate deliveries on the US while the sun is shining (tax credits available). When the sun stops shining here, they will open up to the global market which should demand at least what Tesla loses in domestic sales.

Then, years down the line, they should have production costs reduced to the point they don't need the subsidy to turn a profit. Their upscale models will never rely on subsidy to be profitable.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

As I've said above, I expect Tesla to concentrate deliveries on the US while the sun is shining (tax credits available). When the sun stops shining here, they will open up to the global market which should demand at least what Tesla loses in domestic .

That's the big reason I hope they stay in business and stay here.
Didn't the last guy say something to the effect of "US manufacturing jobs and export are dead"?
I kind of figured he never really know what he was talking about and is an idiot.

[ksa8907]

I think the biggest risk to tesla is their batteries. Why?

To get the most capacity from a battery you need the most surface area. The 20700 cells tesla makes, while better than the 18650's, still have individual housings of metal. All that metal adds up to wasted space and mass.

[oil pan 4]

I thought prizmatic cells were the way to go too.
But tesla is making it work. Prizmatic is all I'm using when I build my self a 13ish volt lithium battery.
Building the banks out of a bunch of individual cylindrical cells is oddly out dated and kind of beta prototypie for their futuristic reputation.