Toyota to make some EV's. Why are they so ass-ugly?

[JSH]

Or instead of an Aptera with a retracting tail people can just buy a normal vehicle that gets 100 MPGe. Most people will be VERY happy with "only" 100 MPGe.

VW went aggressively normal with the ID.4. It looks like a normal crossover, it is priced like a typical crossover (after incentives), and goes 250 miles on a charge. We will see how well it sells.

If you want people to buy EVs you should be happy automakers are finally focusing on popular market segments. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

If you like wagons the Kia EV6 looks promising. It is 60 or 61 inches tall depending on trim. For reference my Sportwagen is 59.2 inches tall and a Prius V was 62 inches tall.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

Or instead of an Aptera with a retracting tail people can just buy a normal vehicle that gets 100 MPGe. Most people will be VERY happy with "only" 100 MPGe.

Change "most people" with "about 7% of people by 2030". That's what's predicted for the USA anyhow. I'm not sure worldwide.

Of course that can be taken either way. If 20% of the population buys and drives pickups and they are happy with them, why good for them. Why should a person like me say he wants to buy a pickup and then fuss over every little thing about pickups, like I'm doing with EV's.

On the other hand, the fact that whatever percent of people drive EV's now in no way means that in 10, 20 or 50 years from now everyone will be driving EV's without some sort of incentive to do so.

All I know is I like EV technology, but EV technology doesn't work for me right now and probably won't any time soon. And it doesn't seem to work for a lot of other people either, whether they like the tech or not.

Originally Posted by JSH

VW went aggressively normal with the ID.4. It looks like a normal crossover, it is priced like a typical crossover (after incentives), and goes 250 miles on a charge. We will see how well it sells.

If you want people to buy EVs you should be happy automakers are finally focusing on popular market segments. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

If you like wagons the Kia EV6 looks promising. It is 60 or 61 inches tall depending on trim. For reference my Sportwagen is 59.2 inches tall and a Prius V was 62 inches tall.

True. Interesting info on the Kia EV6.

Edit-

Following the popular market segments is playing it safe. On the other hand others have been able to take new technologies and ideas and throw them in brand new segments at the same time.

As if throwing the engine in the rear and air cooling it wasn't enough. VW sold the "think small" car fairly well in the USA and elsewhere where such small vehicles weren't common.

Dodge could have applied new unibody designs and FWD to the oh-so-popular station wagon of the time, but instead decided to fight it headon with the minivan, which did become popular and beat the wagon for a time.

Which is why I admire EV makers that try to be different. I like the Nissan Gen1 Leaf headlights and tree-growing dash indicators. I like the Cyber Truck design. I like the Aptera concept. But CUV EV's just don't interest me at all.

[JSH]

I meant that most people that make the leap to EVs will be more than happy with the equivalent of 100 mpg.

Is your 7% EV adoption by 2030 from the EEI?

They are predicting 20% of new cars sales will be EV in 2030 but only 7% of total cars on the road will be EVs. That sound about right to me as it takes about 17 years to replace the vehicle fleet.

The USA will trail the world unless our regulations change. China and the EU lead the world in EV adoption but they have specific policies to make that happen. 11.4% of EU car sales were plug-in in 2020. That is up from 3.6% in 2019. What happened in 2020? Automakers had to hit a fleet average of 95 g/km CO2 or pay HUGE fines. The EU made the fines large enough that automakers couldn't just pay them and pass on the cost to buyers.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

I meant that most people that make the leap to EVs will be more than happy with the equivalent of 100 mpg.

Is your 7% EV adoption by 2030 from the EEI?

They are predicting 20% of new cars sales will be EV in 2030 but only 7% of total cars on the road will be EVs. That sound about right to me as it takes about 17 years to replace the vehicle fleet.

The USA will trail the world unless our regulations change. China and the EU lead the world in EV adoption but they have specific policies to make that happen. 11.4% of EU car sales were plug-in in 2020. That is up from 3.6% in 2019. What happened in 2020? Automakers had to hit a fleet average of 95 g/km CO2 or pay HUGE fines. The EU made the fines large enough that automakers couldn't just pay them and pass on the cost to buyers.

Ya, there needs to be incentives for them and disincentives against the alternative.

No place to charge is a pretty big barrier for the masses that rent their homes in the USA. 10 to 20 years from now a $3,000 used Model Y or id.4 isn't going to be of much use if there's no place to plug it in.

I guess I'm the only one here who wants an EV but doesn't want to be tied to an EVSE because I don't own where I live, and although with enough money I might be able to convince my landlord, there's a good chance I won't be here next year. To me an EV doesn't cost $30,000 and up. They cost $530,000 and up, because I'd need to get a house to own one. If only there were a way to charge off a 120V 15A outlet and get enough range. I guess that's just a pipe dream.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

No place to charge is a pretty big barrier for the masses that rent their homes in the USA. 10 to 20 years from now a $3,000 used Model Y or id.4 isn't going to be of much use if there's no place to plug it in.

Yes, lack of charging can be a big barrier. EVs likely aren't a good fit for people that rent right now. That said 66% of households own their home in the USA and 73% live in detached single family homes. Renters aren't what is keeping EVs at 2% market share.

I'm also pretty sure if you wanted to pay to install a Level 2 charger most owner's would jump at the chance to let you. I would want to be in a place a while before I did that. Some places are making wiring for an EV charger a code requirement for new construction.

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

I guess I'm the only one here who wants an EV but doesn't want to be tied to an EVSE because I don't own where I live, and although with enough money I might be able to convince my landlord, there's a good chance I won't be here next year. To me an EV doesn't cost $30,000 and up. They cost $530,000 and up, because I'd need to get a house to own one. If only there were a way to charge off a 120V 15A outlet and get enough range. I guess that's just a pipe dream.

No, there isn't a way to charge off of 120V 15A and get enough range - at least not with an EV as an only car. I only had an EVSE at home when I leased my Spark EV but i used it for my 50 mile commute. I was home long enough at night add 50 miles. 110V could work well for a PHEV.

$500K for a house isn't normal. There a plenty of places were houses a quite a bit cheaper. The 3 bed / 2 bath / 1500 sq ft house we owned in Birmingham, AL is worth $215K. The 3 bed / 2 bath / 1300 sq ft house we owned in TN is worth $192K. My wife and I bought a 1800 sq ft duplex in Michigan for $95K last summer.

[Isaac Zachary]

Ya, $500,000 might be a bit of an exaggeration. But I missed the boat on buying a house back when you could find them at $100,000 in still ok condition. But ever since marijuana was legalized here in Colorado prices have only increased. Now you can get a $200,000 home that's either in quite poor condition or that's a trailer on a lot that also has lot rent. Maybe the bubble will pop someday, but so far buying a house is out of my reach in the area I live at. And I'm not sure I could find a job that pays as good as what I get here if I were to move somewhere else in the country.

I think I could buy a $200,000 home if I really tried in my area. But that's a big commitment. And I don't think I'm an exception to society as I don't have any debts but do make the household median wage, meaning half of American households make as much as I do or less.

On another note, the idea of moving to Mexico has crossed my mind. However, all the homes down there have 120V 30A mains, and that's that. I guess Mexico won't be joining the EV race any time soon. Of course if I moved to Mexico I probably wouldn't own a vehicle anyway.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Ya, there needs to be incentives for them and disincentives against the alternative.

There already are; massive ones. The federal government has a $7,500 tax credit, and some states have additional credits that total $10k or more. ICE vehicles have MPG requirements, emission requirements, various restrictions, taxes on fuel, etc. With all of these "incentives for them and disincentives against the alternative" we achieved 3% of vehicle sales.

I'm a broken record here, but the government has no business deciding EV is our salvation because how do they know, and also what about the other countless ways to reduce fossil fuel consumption?

Any scheme that seems smart because of the complexity and specificity coming from the largest branch of government is the dumbest, and any scheme that seems simplistic is likely smart. The smartest solution is to progressively tax fossil fuels and let the market determine the millions of ways in which we'll reduce consumption.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Maybe the bubble will pop someday

Of course it will. Remember when the mortgage bubble collapsed in late 2008?

Of course if I moved to Mexico I probably wouldn't own a vehicle anyway.

I'm not aware about Mexico, but nowadays in Brazil the cost of an entry-level car (and some trucklets) skyrocketed within the last 6 years. Well, maybe as a last-case scenario a small motorcycle with a sidecar shouldn't be totally out of question...

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

There already are; massive ones. The federal government has a $7,500 tax credit, and some states have additional credits that total $10k or more. ICE vehicles have MPG requirements, emission requirements, various restrictions, taxes on fuel, etc. With all of these "incentives for them and disincentives against the alternative" we achieved 3% of vehicle sales.

I'm a broken record here, but the government has no business deciding EV is our salvation because how do they know, and also what about the other countless ways to reduce fossil fuel consumption?

Any scheme that seems smart because of the complexity and specificity coming from the largest branch of government is the dumbest, and any scheme that seems simplistic is likely smart. The smartest solution is to progressively tax fossil fuels and let the market determine the millions of ways in which we'll reduce consumption.

I'm not sure there's a right answer here. If you do it one way you tax the rich. If you do it another way you tax the poor. For an example, if you tax fuel alone those that will feel the pressure first are the poor. Later, when those that can afford new cars feel the pressure they'd be the first ones to get out of the expensive-to-fuel vehicles. The poor would still be left standing waiting for those alternatives to trickle down to them. Of course that might push more people to public transportation, which could be a good thing.

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Of course it will. Remember when the mortgage bubble collapsed in late 2008?




I'm not aware about Mexico, but nowadays in Brazil the cost of an entry-level car (and some trucklets) skyrocketed within the last 6 years. Well, maybe as a last-case scenario a small motorcycle with a sidecar shouldn't be totally out of question...

As long as the sidecar and motorcycle can hold my wife, three kids and myself. I did fit 8 people in a two door Mazda 323 in Mexico once.

I don't know what the prices used to be in Mexico, but even though they have cheaper economy models not available in the USA, they are currently still prohibitively expensive, especially by Mexican wage standards. And the used market is not like the one in the USA. Vehicles hold their value for much longer. Those that I know that own cars in Mexico, and I know a lot of people that live in Mexico, all spend a huge portion of their income on owning what we would consider a clunker in the USA.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

There already are; massive ones. The federal government has a $7,500 tax credit, and some states have additional credits that total $10k or more. ICE vehicles have MPG requirements, emission requirements, various restrictions, taxes on fuel, etc. With all of these "incentives for them and disincentives against the alternative" we achieved 3% of vehicle sales.

Yes, there are incentives to buy EVs in the USA but the federal EV tax credit isn't available to the people that need it the most.

It is pretty laughable to say there are incentives to not buy an ICE vehicle in the USA. Gas is cheap and our CAFE requirements are weak and designed to favor larger vehicles and "trucks". Automakers are sitting on lots of fuel efficiency technology because it simply isn't needed to meet regulations in the USA and the average US car buyer doesn't care about fuel economy.

The average new vehicle's fuel economy has only increased 14% since the late 80's and dropped from 2018 to 2019.

EPA's latest Automotive Trend Report (2019)
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trend...-trends-report