Will Tensions in Iran Send Oil Prices Through the Roof?

[Frank Lee]

The point was hypercommuting in 4x4s?

I'm sure your guy is doing much better.

Lessee your numbers then.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

^No doubt, I'd have a sleeping room arrangement.

Exactly. A few years ago, I used to work at a research lab that's about 250 miles from my house. Got a place to stay close by (within easy biking distance), arranged to alternate working a week on site with a week telecommuting, and drove the Insight over the mountains, and overall probably used less gas in the course of a month than a lot of people who lived closer, but drove big cars to work every day.

Of course nowadays I've improved still further, with full-time telecommuting :-)

The point is that this has been a long time coming. Sure, there was a long spell when gas was around $1/gal (heck, when I got my first car, it was under 50 cents), but then it went to around $2, held there for a year or two, went to around $3... And even the 50 cent gas didn't stop me from driving an Austin-Healey Sprite instead of some muscle car.

[user removed]

In 58 years I have seen gas at 12.9 cents a gallon. ten years later (late 60s) bought it at 18.9 cents a gallon.

The oil embargo in the 70s probably saw gas at its highest price based on inflation. One station was selling it at $1.69 back then but when it was the only gas you could get you either walked or paid.

The prices last year really made people think about efficiency.

I drove a Sprite and got 32 MPG when gas was 32 cents a gallon. Had a 63 Valiant that got 29 MPG.

1 cent per mile.

Bought a new 84 Honda CRX 1.5 that averaged 44.5 MPG.

Today, gas here is $2.139 for cheap 10% blend (all that's available within almost 200 miles). That works out to 4 cents a mile compared to one cent a mile in 1968. Factoring in for inflation that's less today than it was 40 years ago.

The summer of 68 I worked full time for the first time in my life and made 65 cents an hour take home pay. That would buy just over 3 gallons of gas.
Last time I worked on my own house I made $100 per hour, which would buy 25 gallons of gas at $4 per gallon.

If you are smart you will plan on it being $5 or more a gallon. If that happens I would buy a motorcycle and aero it out and get over 100 MPG.

The oil exporting countries saw the 10% drop in consumption last year. There was also a 10% reduction in road fatalities. As the world economy collapsed the oil exporters realized they could not drain that much money from the consumers without the consumers reacting in a way that would solve the issue of energy consumption.

We know how to solve the problem of poor efficiency in transportation. Look to Europe and other countries that pay at least twice as much as we do for fuel.

We have no backbone to take the steps to solve the problem, which is why sites like this one exist. Like the Canary in the old diesel submarine, that collapsed when the oxygen levels reached a critical point, we need to understand the critical point is already here.

I drove a car when I was young and crazy that got 10 MPG. I burned 100 gallons of gas a week. It cost me $32, and I was making $13,500 a year.

Today I burn 7 gallons a week. The wife uses about the same in her Nissan Rogue. 15 gallons a week or about 780 per year. We made $60k last year and I am retired, won't see Social Security for another 3 years.

Jammer you bought a new car with an insurance settlement. I would have bought an older car that got the same gas mileage and saved the rest of the settlement for emergencies, like periods of unemployment.

My Echo cost one years depreciation on your new car. The rest of the money is in the bank earning interest (pitiful but better than nothing) that I can use to buy gas.

People make choices every day without looking at the long term picture. My wife and I are fairly financially secure. I have the cash to buy almost any car you can imagine, up to over $200k.

Yet I drive a non air conditioned 2001 Echo that I bought for $3300.

That's how you get ahead and it only requires you to understand the long term cost of driving new cars.

Depreciation
Property taxes
Higher insurance
Credit stress if it was financed

The difference in insurance and property taxes would pay for your fuel. The depreciation amounts to renting the car.

If it's too hot we drive her car or the Insight. I bought the Insight for 10k last December with 34k miles on it. It has warranties on the battery until 2013 and on the major emission components until 2011. I hate to use the AC in the Insight because I just got my average mileage up to 65 per gallon, and AC use cost about 12 MPG. I just dress light when it's hot and it can get pretty hot here in eastern Virginia with terrible humidity.

4 months this year our monthly kilowatt hours have dropped below 1000 per month. I built the house and designed it to be very energy efficient. In most years we have no heat or AC usage in 2 or three months in the spring as well as 2 or 3 in the fall.

I see people every day driving around in large vehicles, most of them are alone. They drive more aggressively because they are in the larger marble.

If you want to succeed in this life become a farmer of net worth. Every year calculate your personal net worth and make sure you increase it by a significant amount annually. Our net worth today is close to 15 times what it was 20 years ago when we got married. We lived on one income and saved the other.

We were paying $1500 per month in interest when we got married. Now we have not paid a cent in interest in 5 years. The only money we have borrowed in the last 15 years was to buy the materials to build a house.

15 years at 1500 per month, that's $270,000 saved by not renting money from a bank, and that's what we have in the bank today.

If a catastrophe hits we can drive the Insight half way acrtoss the country on the gas in the tank and what I can carry in the back. Gas price spikes are inevitable, but your best defense is to plan on them happening. Been doing that for the last 20 years.

regards
Mech

[pgfpro]

^^^^^^^^^^^^Words of wisdom.

[Jammer]

I feel I made the best choice buying this car new. The actual price was a little UNDER $13,000 and that included almost $5,000 in discounts (including my father's Class A Employee discount for families), All Taxes, Registration, even counting for 6 months of full coverage car insurance (not GMAC, another) going out the door. It's an awesome feeling to own it outright. Also I am single with no wife nor no children. (' Sure getting tired of the dating scene though- haha)

I am not very mechanically inclined, but I can troubleshoot and repair most common Wndows PC based problems, and DC electrical problems. But every time I buy a used car it ends up costing me MORE in repair bills than I can afford. If I was a mechanic type I would be more likely to buy a used car and fix the problems as I got them. Also the used car market is very very competitive here with the highest prices I have ever seen for used cars. I also love having such good warranties and free On Star and for a year, and free XM radio for a few months. Next comes the safety factor, for a small car this one has a great rating and has 6 to 8 airbags (I lost count). Not to mention many folks here must drive far for good paying jobs and good transportation is very important just to be offered a decent job in these parts. I even once had a boss insist on seeing my ride during a job interview because of so many previous employees missing work due to broke down cars!! A NEW CAR IS A BIG PLUS FOR ME. After all, it is paid off in full. I have already bought enough of other people's problems that I can not repair on my own.

[Jammer]

Say, back to the ORIGINAL TOPIC:

Oil prices have been trading on the low side of their 50 day trading range until TODAY. I do not have the exact closing figure, but I believe oil shot up around $3.45 today. What happens tomorrow might be very important in "tieing" in any sort of trend with politics. But Oil is still trading on a low side. It was just the fact it went up over $3.00 today that got my attention.

[cfg83]

Jammer -

Originally Posted by Jammer

...

I am not very mechanically inclined, but I can troubleshoot and repair most common Wndows PC based problems, and DC electrical problems. But every time I buy a used car it ends up costing me MORE in repair bills than I can afford. If I was a mechanic type I would be more likely to buy a used car and fix the problems as I got them. Also the used car market is very very competitive here with the highest prices I have ever seen for used cars. ...

(staying off topic, sorry ... ) I think this forum has a much higher ratio of DIY car folk than the general populace. In order for a used car to be affordable, you either need to have an honest mechanic *or* the skillzz to do your own repairs. I have the former but not the latter.

But there is one more difference between today and yesteryear. Fifteen years ago I would not have considered getting a used car because I knew I was a sucker for whatever a dishonest repair dude would say. Today I can go to an internet car forum *devoted* to my car and get the honest skinny on how to keep my car happy. This still won't save me from getting ripped off, but I am in a much better position when I can tell the mechanic in detail what I want done.

CarloSW2

[user removed]

Jammer,

Please understand that my post was advice, not intended as a criticism.

I apologise if my comment seemed harsh, it was intended as advice and a good economic strategy for future financial security.

I try very hard to not engage in derogatory exchanges on Internet forums because there is no benefit to either party.

It would be nice to see some of the younger members, many years from now when I have been under the ground for decades say.

"That grumpy old fart had a few good ideas."



regards
Mech

[Jammer]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

Jammer,

Please understand that my post was advice, not intended as a criticism.

I apologise if my comment seemed harsh, it was intended as advice and a good economic strategy for future financial security.

I try very hard to not engage in derogatory exchanges on Internet forums because there is no benefit to either party.

It would be nice to see some of the younger members, many years from now when I have been under the ground for decades say.

"That grumpy old fart had a few good ideas."



regards
Mech

Mech: YES you have great ideals and advise, and NO I never took it that in a bad way. I merely wanted to explain where I was coming from, and in fact I do agree that you had some good advise. It's just that I can barely fix a broken piece of plastic. I may be able to troubleshoot and repair the worst hardware or software problem on a Windows based p.c.- BUT, I am lucky to turn a screwdriver in the right direction. hahah - I just had real bad luck with used cars and it always ended up costing me more in repairs and lost work time that anything else.

I'm sure if I was better at working on cars your advise would of been a great way of going for me. But I live in a fairly remote area near a National Park, and in order to live here most people have to have pretty reliable transportation because of the increased amount of driving most people have here... It's part of the price to live in such a breath-taken National Park.

I'm sorry you thought I was being defensive with YOU, because I understand exactly what you are saying, I was just trying to explain why it's not a good plan for me giving my situation.

So, everything is "cool"

[Jammer]

Originally Posted by cfg83

Jammer -



(staying off topic, sorry ... ) I think this forum has a much higher ratio of DIY car folk than the general populace. In order for a used car to be affordable, you either need to have an honest mechanic *or* the skillzz to do your own repairs. I have the former but not the latter.

But there is one more difference between today and yesteryear. Fifteen years ago I would not have considered getting a used car because I knew I was a sucker for whatever a dishonest repair dude would say. Today I can go to an internet car forum *devoted* to my car and get the honest skinny on how to keep my car happy. This still won't save me from getting ripped off, but I am in a much better position when I can tell the mechanic in detail what I want done.

CarloSW2

Good points.

And it reminds me of something. I was actually raised as a kid with the advise from my father, who worked for Chevy, that a NEW car/truck was always much cheaper to drive than a used car which likely needed repairs and had often left dad stranded in far away town in his younger years. I guess that is where I got some of my buying habits from. I can recall my own father telling me about all sorts of tricks some criminal type mechanics did to him- Gosh he had one story of a guy just trying to cheat him on a couple pints of oil- The mechanic held his thumb in the dipstick as he measured the oil and my dad caught him red handed pulling the dipstick out with his thumb on it (engine still hot too). I realize most mechanics are good honest folks, it's the bad apples I am speaking of. As you say a good honest mechanic can be a lot of help in keeping a used car on the road at rates a person can pay and still have money for food.

I was in a position to get a much larger car such as a Malibu or Impala, but I seen no sense in driving a car that I feel is bigger than I need, and I purposely wanted the most fuel efficient car I could get from GM- I pretty much was locked into buying GM because of all the discounts I could get. Any Hybrid by GM was way too expensive. I could not buy an imported car due to the fact much of my family would dis-own me and not let me park my car in their driveways (GM Retirees and workers!) So after I decided on GM, it turned out the Cobalt XFE was GM's only car with mileage close to 45 MPG (37 EPA, sticker said 44 was possible- I can not argue, the EPA ratting has proven very spot on)- I only hope I can get above 50MPG after I make the first oil change. Today I still have 44.4MPG, and that seems to be my best for the time being.

About my wreck that all started with a needed repair I could not do, nor get, done by my Dealership' that sold me the truck! Their head mechanic at the Service Department told me to bring the truck in while the brakes were acting up- which was impossible to predict and I never had the oppertunity to get it in as it was displaying the ABS Fault Warning:

I do like the idea of going to internet forums for advise on fixing cars. But, I must tell you, I had a problem with my previous 2005 Chevy Colorado 4X4 pickup truck that I could never fix! -- For 2 years I was getting alerts that said "ABS BEAK FAULT" and often my braking would sound like metal on metal, but not all the time. Neither my dealership (it was an intermittent problem and they never seen it bad) nor the internet could advise me how to get the ABS brakes to work right. Finally after several trips to the dealership, on a sunny day I was driving up a well known road and my brakes went OUT on me! I had no time to shift down, time was up, I hit the 90 degree curve going about 40MPH which is way to much for the truck with it's high center of gravity to handle- I turned, the truck went straight, hit a hillside knocked off my eye glasses and smashed my windshield then I was blinded and the truck starting flipping upside down and rolled over and over- I was FINE, I thank GOD, and the seat-belt work perfect on me and held me upside down just as if I was still driving securely in my seat. The passenger side got crushed FLAT along with the topper, and the front in.. shesh the damage was major..... AND IT ALL STARTED WITH A NEEDED REPAIR ON MY BRAKES THAT I COULD NOT DO, NOR COULD MY DEALERSHIP DO. I had no idea how serious the problem was. I almost sued GM but at the time I believe they were in Bankruptcy. I was just happy the police did not fault me and my insurance payed off good and did not raise my rates as far as I can tell.

After that wreck I opted for a small car because I drove a 4X4 for all the wrong reasons. I was one of the guys that changed. I used to get 17MPG, and now I get 45.4MPG in a car with a low center of gravity which is much less likely to flip as easily as large pickups do..But people can argue large vrs small cars and trucks as to which is safer all day. It would all depend on what kind of accident was involved in many cases.