Will Tensions in Iran Send Oil Prices Through the Roof?

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Jammer

You all really think cars with that kind of miles on it don't start having problems?

You really think new cars don't occasionally have problems? But my experience has been otherwise. The three most recent vehicles:

'88 Toyota pickup. 208K when I bought it three years ago, 213K now. (I basically just use it for hauling or when the snow's deep.) Changed the oil & filters last week, and put new windshield wiper blades on it.

'00 Honda Insight. Bought 6 years ago with 50K, has about 140K now. Mechanical repairs: replaced the EGR valve, and had the dealer put in an updated ECM under a factory recall. Also replaced the hybrid battery pack, cost $400. (I live in the Sierra Nevada, so frequently make long climbs up 6% grades or steeper, which really stresses the battery.)

'85 Honda CRX. Owned it for about 10 years. IIRC it had about 250K when I had a little encounter with standing water on the freeway (on a clear day!) and wound up going backwards at 60 mph or so. I admit that it never ran right afterwards, but before that the only repair I can remember was replacing a CV joint.

[Jammer]

Off Thread Topic- Still In seeing I was raised in/near Flint Michigan I have seen the car/truck sales directly impact over 500,000 jobs that mostly were outsourced to smaller companies over seas. It devastated that city, and it's got a ghetto now that is said to now be worse than any part of Detroit.

Well everyone, including myself, said and expected G.M.'s car sales, if not car sales over all, to drop like a rock right after Cash for Clunkers ended. Nope, that is NOT the case for G.M. On network news today (CBS maybe?) they reported on a pretty hefty increase in sales for GM, many dealerships are asking for more cars and trucks from GM than they had ever planed on building in the first place. In one case for a particular crossover, the car's demand was up over ten times what GM had estimated. If this trend continues GM should be able to repay their debit back to the American Government/Taxpayers with interest in the not too distant future, and it already is resulting in many thousands of Americans being called back to their jobs despite all of the negative talk from the media by car annalists (They have no more experts than we are on here about cars).

As the President of G.M. said, the fastest way of putting G.M. right back fully in the private market is to buy their cars. GM is currently beating all expectations right now because everyone assumed the sales would drop like a rock after the Clunker's deal was exhausted. Instead they are doing much better and nobody can agree as to why this is. Many dealerships are selling their GM cars as soon as they get them and GM is forced to call more back in to work to keep up with the greatly increased demand. - Man, I had two years of business classes and this is just one of the many things in our economy that defies logic in some ways. However, being an American I hold out hope that GM pays off their complete debt and becomes a total private car company and once again can finally REALLY compete in the real world. These changes should of came about in the 1970s, not 2009. The UAW really gave back a lot, I have their agreement printed up and read it. The days of endless security and going home early with full pay are now in the past. Never before has this country seen so many high quality cars and trucks competing for our $$. It's a safe bet that the American market is now saturated. Most future sales will have to come from countries such as China, in my humble opinion. We now have a real fist fight going on everyday with all of the advertising $$ trying to talk us into buying their brands of cars and trucks. It's a win for the new car consumers, AND we have workers being called back to work. This was not supposed to be happening now the Cash for Clunkers deal is over. Even I am surprised.

The most inexpensive gasoline is $2.33 /9 for 87 octane near me. Maybe in the big city of Lexington they might have cheaper gas, but the further one travels east towards West Va the higher it seems to get- despite the fact we have a large oil refinery in Ashland Ky.

About cars and miles etc.. My parents are fairly well to do. Dad has owned many new Caddilacs and large full size 4x4 pickup trucks. He sold many of his used Cadilacs at around 200,000 miles and swears everything worked as good as new and that he would not hesitate to take either car to California and back packing on many more thousand miles on the cars. He is big in maintenance for cars and some drivers forget to change their oil, check for lube, tire pressure, rotating tires, and all of that stuff. If a car is well taking care of I believe most current models sold will make it to 200,000 miles without major mechanical breakdowns happening (unless one hits a deer etc).There is a reason places will sale you extended warranties for cars up to 15 years old with less than 200,000 miles on it. The mileage is in essence the life zapper of many cars. Buying a brand new car only gives you that many more miles to drive it until a major mechanical problem could be expected. I think the best deals are on late model cars that have less than 20-30K miles. But these cars are a hot item here, and they do not stay for sale very long unless the seller is trying to get back his new car price. Also, rust is a thing of the past with many new car brands.


My eye is pegged on the oil prices. If they go up more than 2 bucks tomorrow I will start looking for gasoline to go back UP in a few weeks.

[Christ]

Bomb Iran, Bomb Bomb Iran...

- Freddie Fassert (The Regents)

See, they knew what most of the country is probably thinking, even way back then...

EDIT: Obviously, this is a joke. The actual name (and lyrics) of the song are:
Barbara Ann, Bar-Barbara Ann blah blah blah.

EDIT AGAIN: A little googling reveals that I'm obviously not as clever as I thought I was when typing that... Apparently, the first mention of it was the 80's, and John McCain managed to show his sophomoric side by plagiarizing it during his "well thought out" campaign... Glad we didn't get that guy...

[Frank Lee]

After Clunkers, September Auto Sales Fall
By KIMBERLY S. JOHNSON and BREE FOWLER, AP
(Oct. 1) - Major automakers reported September sales declines on Thursday, revealing a tough hangover from this summer's buying spree driven by big discounts to consumers.
General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC posted the biggest slowdowns during the month. Hyundai bucked the trend, reporting a 27 percent rise in sales last month over last year.
"It was a more difficult month than we anticipated," Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president of U.S. sales, told reporters during a conference call."
Automakers got a big lift in July and August from the government's Cash for Clunkers program, which spurred sales of nearly 700,000 new cars and trucks. The program's big discounts lured in many customers who otherwise would have waited until later in the year to walk into dealerships.
Now automakers are starting to feel the effect. GM said its sales plunged 45 percent to 155,679 vehicles last month compared with 282,806 in September of last year. Ford reported sales of 114,241 in September, but the decline followed two straight months of rising sales. Chrysler sold only 62,197 vehicles last month, down 42 percent from the prior year.
Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. said sales fell 13 percent while Nissan Motor Co. said its sales fell 7 percent. Ford Motor Co. had the smallest decline among major manufacturers, falling 5.1 percent.
GM blamed the decline on the clunkers program pulling buyers into July and August, weak consumer confidence and low inventory levels during September before production increases could replenish stocks.
"As expected, the market returned to pre-Cash for Clunkers levels in September," Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president of U.S. sales, said in a statement. "Fortunately the fourth quarter looks brighter."
Ford's top analyst told reporters on Thursday he does not think the slowdown will affect sales in October and beyond.
"I think most part the payback for the program will be minimal in the coming months," George Pipas said. "I don't think we should be using any excuses. I think from now on the economy stands on its own."
Cash for Clunkers and summertime production cuts kept inventories of popular models low during the month, but even so, Chrysler predicted its market share will rise 0.8 percentage points from August levels. The company increased factory output to replenish supplies.
"While we had some bright spots in September, it was still a challenging sales environment for the industry," Peter Fong, CEO of the Chrysler brand, said in a statement.
Sales of Ford's popular F-series trucks rose 3.5 percent, while sales of the new 2010 Taurus sedan increased more than 60 percent.
Ken Czubay, Ford's vice president of U.S. marketing and sales, said that could be a key indicator that pickup sales are starting to recover among core buyers who need them for work, and it may be an early indicator that small business owners are experiencing a turnaround.
"It's two months in a row of F-series sales increases for us," Czubay told reporters during a conference call. "It's not the large commercial purchases, it's more the individual."
The F-series trucks usually are the top-selling vehicle in the U.S.
The September results fell 37.2 percent from August totals, which were boosted by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Two of Ford's vehicles — the Focus and Escape — were top sellers in the program that ran during July and August and offered big discounts to buyers.
Sales of the those vehicles posted steep declines from August to September. Focus fell 64.1 percent from August, when Ford sold 25,547 of the small, fuel efficient cars. The company sold 9,182 in September.
The Escape crossover posted a month-over-month sales decline of 58.5 percent, with Ford selling 8,692 of the vehicles last month, compared to 20,933 August sales.
Chrysler also saw a slowdown between August and September. The company's sales fell by a third to 62,197 from 93,222 in August.
South Korean automaker Hyundai's sales jumped on easy comparisions with a weak year-ago period and strong demand for its Elantra and Santa Fe models.
Automakers sold a combined 1.3 million vehicles in August for a seasonally adjusted sales rate, or SAAR, of 14.1 million. Many analysts expect a SAAR of 9.3 million for September.

After Clunkers, September Auto Sales Fall - AOL Money & Finance

[user removed]

My brother bought a huge GMC diesel truck for his work, hauls a trailer that carries 10,000 gross weight enough to justify the truck.

At 2000 miles it dropped the tip of a glow plug into one cylinder and trashed the engine.

The dealership told him they were going to repair the engine.

I told him to basically tell them if they tried to fix that engine, and anything required him to return to that dealership 3 times total, they would get the truck back through the Virginia Lemon Law provisions.

Then they decided to put a new engine in the truck. He always bought the extended warranty whenever he bought a GM product.

Now he drives a Tacoma and gets 25 MPG carrying all his work tools and materials around with him.

In 1973 I worked at a Ford Dealership, I got to fix all the warranty rattles and squeaks, and there were plenty. One Ford pickup I will never forget. Brand new, start it up and oil starts pouring out of the bottom of the bell housing almost immediately, probably a quart a minute.

They pulled the transmission out and the torque converter and flex plate. On the back of the engine block was a hand written note from one of the assembly line workers. The note said:

"You found it you SOB"

The guy had drilled a 1/8 th inch diameter hole into the main oil gallery.

The threaded it with tapered threads and put a plug in his hole.

About 10 years later I worked for A Mercedes dealership in Houston Texas. A new turbo diesel 300 SD cam in with a hole in the side of the engine with 600 miles on the odometer. The dealership put the customer in a loaner car, and Mercedes air freighted a new engine from Germany. It came in a steel cage with every accessory attached, just the way it was built on the assembly line before being installed in a car.

The old engine went back in the steel cage and was air freighted back to Germany.
The warranty cost was $7800 for the engine and the round trip air freight was $1000.

That same year I bought a brand new Honda CRX 1.5. It was a stripper and cost $7000, less than the Benz engine.

When I put a radio in the car we found out the right hand door speaker circuit was not working properly. The ground wire was an open circuit. We just ran a new wire, I didn't want someone tearing the dash out of a brand new car to fix a simple problem. I later found out it had a 195 degree thermostat and had the dealer switch it back to 180 under warranty.

I drove the Honda 50,000 miles and sold it for $5000. I averaged 44 MPG and never tried to hypermile the car. It had no AC.

The American car manufacturers needed Unions in the 1930's. Ford was the exception and treated his employees well. Old Henry was a "man of the people".

After WW2 the adversarial relationship between Unions and management created a situation where quality suffered. Sabotage and waste became the results of the balance of power going to the unions. Customers flocked to the Japanese makes when the first oil Embargo hit in 1973.

GM stated in that same time era that it was not possible to build a car that got 40 MPG. In 1977 I rebuilt a Honda Accord that was in a collision. My Pop bought the car and drove it 40,000 miles in the Florida keys. He averaged 39.5 MPG. Traded it in for $1300 less that he paid me for the car.

You will never see the American car companies return to their position of dominance that they enjoyed in the post WW2 era. I would be amazed if GM pays back their 50 billion "loan".

Jammer it amazes me that you would buy another GM product after the problems you had with your truck, which almost killed you. Apparently the dealer that sold you the truck had some serious problems with their techs if they could not find and fix the brake problem you had with your truck.

I never failed to identify and correct a customers problem in 30 years of working on cars.
If GM was negligent in their handling of your problem I would go after them for cash. According to your post they damn near killed you with a defective product.

Like the old Ford pickup in the earlier part of this post, I don't need too many examples of a total disdain for the customers investment of his hard earned money, to convince me to never buy from that manufacturer again.

The American manufacturers and the Unions forgot one major point in their 40 year conflict. That was the customer.

They only got better after the Japanese (taught by Douglas MacArthur) kicked their butts.

Oil prices are a minute part of our monthly expenses. Just over 1% of our annual income.

I also don't swallow the myth of the oil speculators last year. The oil exporters are cash rich and own the product and the tankers in which it was shipped. It's like a shill bidder in an auction. They could simply write themselves an IOU and jack up the price of their product.

Our greatest enemy today, other than our own propensity for shortsightedness and outright criminal waste, is OPEC.

The next worst enemy is ourselves. We don't have the backbone to enact legislation and support R&D that would eliminate oil imports in the next decade. China and India are coming on the scene, and we will never be able to compete with their low manufacturing costs. Our once world leading manufacturing base is gone. We produce very few manufactured goods anymore, and have evolved into a nation of money handlers and bureaucrats.

Politicians buy votes with handouts, and refuse to act courageously. We are selling out our next generations because we are collective a bunch of cowards.

I was checking yesterday on how many people are millionaires in the country. The ones that have a net worth of over 1 million dollars. The figure is about 6% nationwide.
That means there are about 18 million millionaires. The national debt is over 11 trillion.
To pay that debt we would need to confiscate 1 million dollars from 11 million millionaires.

Instead (and I am not advocating confiscation) we just keep piling on more debt. Income taxes do not apply to people with large amounts of net worth, only to work related income and investments. In 1973 I paid more income taxes than John Rockefeller. He was worth 165 million, I was worth nothing.

Ross Perot made 60 million in tax free municipal bonds on his 2 billion in net worth when he ran for president. He paid no taxes on that 60 million in income. At the same time the poorest were suffering from inflation that forced them to ask for annual raises just to keep up with the prices on daily needs.


----------------------------------------------------

My point,(whew it took long enough!)

Another oil shortage due to international conflicts would be a short term disaster, but in the long run, it might (big emphasis on might) actually get us to actually fix the problem.

Right now I can barely get anyone to even look at my solution, even though several friends who are engineers (West Point, MIT, Va Tech,etc.) tell me it is an ingenious and practical solution.

regards
Mech

[Jammer]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

After Clunkers, September Auto Sales Fall
By KIMBERLY S. JOHNSON and BREE FOWLER, AP
(Oct. 1) - Major automakers reported September sales declines on Thursday, revealing a tough hangover from this summer's buying spree driven by big discounts to consumers.
General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC posted the biggest slowdowns during the month. Hyundai bucked the trend, reporting a 27 percent rise in sales last month over last year.
"It was a more difficult month than we anticipated," Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president of U.S. sales, told reporters during a conference call."
Automakers got a big lift in July and August from the government's Cash for Clunkers program, which spurred sales of nearly 700,000 new cars and trucks. The program's big discounts lured in many customers who otherwise would have waited until later in the year to walk into dealerships.
Now automakers are starting to feel the effect. GM said its sales plunged 45 percent to 155,679 vehicles last month compared with 282,806 in September of last year. Ford reported sales of 114,241 in September, but the decline followed two straight months of rising sales. Chrysler sold only 62,197 vehicles last month, down 42 percent from the prior year.
Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. said sales fell 13 percent while Nissan Motor Co. said its sales fell 7 percent. Ford Motor Co. had the smallest decline among major manufacturers, falling 5.1 percent.
GM blamed the decline on the clunkers program pulling buyers into July and August, weak consumer confidence and low inventory levels during September before production increases could replenish stocks.
"As expected, the market returned to pre-Cash for Clunkers levels in September," Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president of U.S. sales, said in a statement. "Fortunately the fourth quarter looks brighter."
Ford's top analyst told reporters on Thursday he does not think the slowdown will affect sales in October and beyond.
"I think most part the payback for the program will be minimal in the coming months," George Pipas said. "I don't think we should be using any excuses. I think from now on the economy stands on its own."
Cash for Clunkers and summertime production cuts kept inventories of popular models low during the month, but even so, Chrysler predicted its market share will rise 0.8 percentage points from August levels. The company increased factory output to replenish supplies.
"While we had some bright spots in September, it was still a challenging sales environment for the industry," Peter Fong, CEO of the Chrysler brand, said in a statement.
Sales of Ford's popular F-series trucks rose 3.5 percent, while sales of the new 2010 Taurus sedan increased more than 60 percent.
Ken Czubay, Ford's vice president of U.S. marketing and sales, said that could be a key indicator that pickup sales are starting to recover among core buyers who need them for work, and it may be an early indicator that small business owners are experiencing a turnaround.
"It's two months in a row of F-series sales increases for us," Czubay told reporters during a conference call. "It's not the large commercial purchases, it's more the individual."
The F-series trucks usually are the top-selling vehicle in the U.S.
The September results fell 37.2 percent from August totals, which were boosted by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Two of Ford's vehicles — the Focus and Escape — were top sellers in the program that ran during July and August and offered big discounts to buyers.
Sales of the those vehicles posted steep declines from August to September. Focus fell 64.1 percent from August, when Ford sold 25,547 of the small, fuel efficient cars. The company sold 9,182 in September.
The Escape crossover posted a month-over-month sales decline of 58.5 percent, with Ford selling 8,692 of the vehicles last month, compared to 20,933 August sales.
Chrysler also saw a slowdown between August and September. The company's sales fell by a third to 62,197 from 93,222 in August.
South Korean automaker Hyundai's sales jumped on easy comparisions with a weak year-ago period and strong demand for its Elantra and Santa Fe models.
Automakers sold a combined 1.3 million vehicles in August for a seasonally adjusted sales rate, or SAAR, of 14.1 million. Many analysts expect a SAAR of 9.3 million for September.

After Clunkers, September Auto Sales Fall - AOL Money & Finance

THANK YOU FRANK! Man I'm angry. I believe we had the news on CBS at 6:30PM yesterday when they gave this AWESOME and GREAT report about GM not being able to keep up with demand. The went to dealerships and they all claimed they could not keep enough cars and trucks on their lots and the whole thing. They really aired that yesterday!!

So after seeing your report I checked Google, and OH MY GOD. Man it's stuff like this that gets people to upset to pay attention to certain network news. I believe it was a CBS video cast report, and I am positive of what they said, they gave GM a big glowing report card and I stood there in awe saying that none of our economies make any sense any more. Now I have NO IDEA where the heck CBS got that story from.... and it might of been ABC or NBC, but I am about 75% sure it was CBS that said all of that positive stuff about GM sales. Man both stories can't be true.

ARGH!!

(not at you Frank- at the network)

[Jammer]

Mech: Those poor quality deals and stunts of the 1970's is exactly what cost GM so much market share. There quality was very poor then. It has also taken them to the brink of bankruptcy to wake up and smell the coffee. I have retirees in my family that worked over 30 years for GM. Im not lie-ing when I say that I can NOT park a Honda nor Toyota in my fathers, and a few other's driveways. All they see is jobs being lost to which they put much of the blame on people that, as they see it, cut their own throats by buying imports. The do not see the quality issues that got the ball rolling. I am more middle ground on this stuff, I have to be.

Yes I had some serious problems with my Colorado, but my previous chevys were pretty darn good. I had an S-ten that ran so long I think it would of rusted out before the engine would of gave in. Growing up in a GM town I learned alot about their cars. They used to never stop the production line for anything. Thats one of the reasons the quality was so poor- they just ran every car and part no matter what. My Colorado was a lemon, which I did not learn until 50,000 miles. But I see it as a bad truck not a bad series. I talked to many online that owned the same model truck I had and were going strong over 100,000 miles without the problems I had. I really think I just got a bad one that should of be caught by their Quality Control.

I feel good buying American during such hard times. I even support my local business people, like small stores instead ordering on the internet. I feel better spending money on products and services near me. The way things are going we will be left with: China-mart, and the Internet to buy/order about everything we may want. People speak so much about what is good for the earth, I prefer to think about what is good for our economy.

Man, I am still baffled over the clash of the reporting being done over GM right now. I have witnesses that were watching the same report I did, and it's entirely the opposite of the ones on google. The report on tv pointed to a 15% rise in sales and said that higher quality and new styles were attracting buyers... They talked to new Chevy buyers that were saying they used to drive imports but were now sold on GM's cars... man it went on and on! And then I read Franks report and I'm all baffled as to what the heck is going on with the news media? How on earth can they be reporting on the same company and be painting an entirely opposite scenario?

[Jammer]

OK, I found something online that backs up what I seen on TV yesterday. Please check this out: GM Sees Some Positive Signs on Bumpy Road - CBS Evening News - CBS News

GM Sees Some Positive Signs on Bumpy Road

(CBS) As Thursday's sales figures indicate, no one can speak of recovery. Yet, if Jay Luebking is a sign, GM may have a detectable pulse as CBS News Correspondent Dean Reynolds reports.

Luebking and his wife just traded in their Mitsubishi for a new Chevy Equinox. "I think it's a very quality car. I think it's right up there with the ranks of the imports," said Luebking.

That bolsters what the car site edmunds.com is reporting. Traffic to GM's various vehicle Web sites is up 15 percent -- indicating interest or even intent -- perhaps spurred by the company's unprecedented two-month money back guarantee.

So why the sales swoon? Dealers say they haven't had enough cars.

GM had planned to build about 8,000 of the Chevrolet Equinox model this month, but dealers are asking for nearly 30,000 to meet demand.

Dealers want almost three times as many GMC Terrains and Buick Lacrosses as are being produced this month. More than twice as many Chevrolet Traverses -- all models that hit the showrooms in the days after GM emerged from bankruptcy July 10.

The new Camaro came out in May and lately has been outselling Ford's Mustang -- with some dealers selling all they have in hours - not days.

Bill Stasek says his customers cite styling, mileage and price. "We certainly could use more vehicles, especially in the Equinox and the Camaro line."

GM feels confident enough to call back 2,400 laid off assembly line workers. But car industry analysts hesitate to call this a turnaround.

"Although demand can be high on a few vehicles, you really need demand to be high across many vehicles," said Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com.

GM is also smarting after the deal to sell off its Saturn brand collapsed yesterday, and the stain of bankruptcy will be hard to erase. Some customers are undoubtedly turned off by the government takeover of GM.

But to that, GM Vice-Chairman Robert Lutz offers a solution. "If the American public doesn't like nationalized automobile companies, the fastest way to make it private again is to buy our vehicles."

In other words, put your money where your mouth is."

Now THIS report shows GM in a much more favorable light. But leave it to GM to build too many of the bad sellers and not enough of what IS selling! Shesh

[Christ]

Jammer - CBS stole that story from FOX news... they should have known better...

/sarcasm

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Jammer

Mech: Those poor quality deals and stunts of the 1970's is exactly what cost GM so much market share.

I know I've said this before, but I think it bears repeating. The quality issues, though important, were and are far from the whole story. It's really simple: if GM or Ford or Chrysler wants me to even think about buying one of their cars, they first have to build the kind of car I want to buy. THEN I'll start looking at things like quality and price, but if they don't build it, I'm not even interested in looking.

Now what I want, and what a lot of other Americans apparently want (judging from the fact that the Japanese & Germans sell us a lot of this kind of car), is small, nimble, and good on gas. No reason they can't build cars like this: the Japanese do it, and in America. They just don't WANT to. They'd rather spend millions on advertising to convince people they really want those big gas-guzzlers, instead of spending the same amount on R&D to build better cars.