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Old 01-30-2018, 02:42 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Electric power steering isn't unique to BEVs, neither is electric water pumps, electric heat pumps, or electric brake boosters. The Gen III Prius is entirely beltless.
You can't go beltless on a 12 volt battery. That is why OEMs are stepping up to 48v (My comment was directed at ksa8907's mention of the 48V system in the new Ram 1500)


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These advantages will need to outweigh the drawback of limited range and slow charging for consumers to be interested in them. Once the purchase price can beat ICE purchase prices, people will adopt them more. They will still suck at longer trips though. I'd be willing to plan an EV trip and wait at chargers though if gasoline were crazy expensive and DCFC electricity was cheap, but as it is, just the opposite is true.
Range ceases to be an issue at the 200 to 250 miles seen in current EVs. At that point you are covering 98-99% of trips.

Current EVs are already cost competitive with ICE vehicles. The savings in operating cost more than make up for the increased purchase price.

There is absolutely no reason to drive an EV on a long trip. There are plenty of other options.

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Old 01-30-2018, 04:00 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
You can't go beltless on a 12 volt battery. That is why OEMs are stepping up to 48v (My comment was directed at ksa8907's mention of the 48V system in the new Ram 1500)

Range ceases to be an issue at the 200 to 250 miles seen in current EVs. At that point you are covering 98-99% of trips.

Current EVs are already cost competitive with ICE vehicles. The savings in operating cost more than make up for the increased purchase price.

There is absolutely no reason to drive an EV on a long trip. There are plenty of other options.
You can go beltless if the vehicle is a hybrid with a traction battery, and a MG instead of an alternator. The Prius uses a DC/DC converter to charge the 12v battery from the high voltage battery.

EV range isn't much of an issue to me, or most other rational people, but the typical consumer still has anxiety about the 2% of times they would drive beyond the EV 1-charge range. Range anxiety is real regardless of the extent of the problem.

I just ran some numbers through my spreadsheet comparing a $20k Honda Fit to a $30k Chevy Bolt. The 5 year cost for the Fit was $22,500 compared to the Bolt at 27,300. EVs are cost competitive if you buy them used and keep them a while, but they aren't cost competitive for the typical new car buyer who keeps a vehicle for 5 years.

Click my signature and look at the figures I used and criticize my methods.
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Old 01-30-2018, 04:38 PM   #13 (permalink)
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[QUOTE=redpoint5;560069]
Consider me a skeptic of EVs being great for long distance travel anytime within the next decade. /QUOTE]

You'll have to add an "Other than Tesla" qualifier if you want to continue saying such things. Cross-continent by Tesla is already superior to any gasser experience.

Sure, Chevy has screwed the Bolt by refusing to deploy any charging infrastructure, and I agree that 50 kW DCFC is insufficient for road trips, as it essentially doubles the trip duration after your first-charge range.

People here often seem to overlook that DCFC is perfect for turning a local car into a regional car. Sure, it might not work cross-continent, but a single fast charge near your destination to take care of the return trip is no big deal.
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Old 01-30-2018, 05:46 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
You can go beltless if the vehicle is a hybrid with a traction battery, and a MG instead of an alternator. The Prius uses a DC/DC converter to charge the 12v battery from the high voltage battery.
Yes you can. Again, I was talking about conventional ICE cars going from 12V to 48V and how 48V is soon be the new standard.

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EV range isn't much of an issue to me, or most other rational people, but the typical consumer still has anxiety about the 2% of times they would drive beyond the EV 1-charge range. Range anxiety is real regardless of the extent of the problem.
Range anxiety is real. The best way to kill it is for people to experience EVs first hand. My EV has opened up the eyes of quite a few people. There is nothing better than hearing first hand from someone that you know and trust.

I estimate about 1/3 of cars could be EVs even if we were only talking couples, with multiple cars, that live in major cities, in single family homes, with a garage. It is much easy to buy an EV as a second car than a first car.

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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I just ran some numbers through my spreadsheet comparing a $20k Honda Fit to a $30k Chevy Bolt. The 5 year cost for the Fit was $22,500 compared to the Bolt at 27,300. EVs are cost competitive if you buy them used and keep them a while, but they aren't cost competitive for the typical new car buyer who keeps a vehicle for 5 years.

Click my signature and look at the figures I used and criticize my methods.
You are comparing the wrong cars. The Fit is an economy car. The Bolt is a hot hatch that runs the 1/4 mile 0.3 seconds slower than a Golf GTI even handicapped with crappy LLR economy tires. That is the beauty of EVs, you can have great performance and still get 100 MPGe. If we compare hot hatch's the cars start out costing the same.


If we are talking about economy hatchbacks then we can compare the 2018 Fit to a 2018 Leaf ($30K - $10K tax credits) The EV starts out cheaper than gas car and is still quicker.

Some nitpicks.
  • EVs are exempt from DEQ
  • Your gas car maintenance is low. (I averaged $160 a year for my Prius and did all the work myself. If a shop does the work you can double it at least)
  • Your EV maintenance is high. My Spark (and the Bolt) only require the coolant to be changed at 120K miles and a cabin air filter every 30K. In 5 years we are looking at 1 set of tires and a cabin filter or about $80 a year.

Either way, the EV purchase price is the same as a comparable gas car and the running costs much lower.
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Old 01-30-2018, 06:17 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Sure, Chevy has screwed the Bolt by refusing to deploy any charging infrastructure, and I agree that 50 kW DCFC is insufficient for road trips, as it essentially doubles the trip duration after your first-charge range.
I don't feel screwed by Chevy at all. It isnít an automakerís job to install a network of charging stations. In fact what Tesla is doing is counterproductive as they insist on using a proprietary plug so that other EVs cannot charge at their stations. At least Chevy uses the standard plug adopted in the USA and used by all US and European automakers.

This may be a place where the Feds need to step in a enforce a standard. Having 3 competing plug standards does nothing but hurt the adoption of EVs.
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Old 01-30-2018, 06:23 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
You are comparing the wrong cars. The Fit is an economy car. The Bolt is a hot hatch that runs the 1/4 mile 0.3 seconds slower than a Golf GTI even handicapped with crappy LLR economy tires. That is the beauty of EVs, you can have great performance and still get 100 MPGe. If we compare hot hatch's the cars start out costing the same.


If we are talking about economy hatchbacks then we can compare the 2018 Fit to a 2018 Leaf ($30K - $10K tax credits) The EV starts out cheaper than gas car and is still quicker.

Some nitpicks.
  • EVs are exempt from DEQ
  • Your gas car maintenance is low. (I averaged $160 a year for my Prius and did all the work myself. If a shop does the work you can double it at least)
  • Your EV maintenance is high. My Spark (and the Bolt) only require the coolant to be changed at 120K miles and a cabin air filter every 30K. In 5 years we are looking at 1 set of tires and a cabin filter or about $80 a year.

Either way, the EV purchase price is the same as a comparable gas car and the running costs much lower.
I don't know what cars Bolt owners cross-shop. My awareness of new cars is pretty limited. Just thought they were similar size or have similar utility and features.

Gas maintenance likely is low. I do all my own maintenance, so that skews things. My Prius has only cost about $20/year in maintenance so far, but the category also includes tire replacement cost, which can be expensive for the Bolt. To some degree, delayed maintenance can be reflected in depreciation, since many buyers would want a discount if the timing belt had not been changed, for instance.

My overall point is that EVs have a higher rate of depreciation, and that hits new car buyers hard. Depreciation is the single largest cost of ownership for most people, especially for newer vehicles.

We can find examples of ways that an EV or gasser is cheapest to own, but in general I still consider new EV prices to be a bit off putting for most consumers.
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Old 01-30-2018, 06:31 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I don't feel screwed by Chevy at all. It isn’t an automaker’s job to install a network of charging stations.
Chevy is selling a long range CCS-equipped car into a national market with nearly zero CCS stations. TESLA saw this CCS vs CHAdeMO standards war coming, and also that neither standard was adequate for highway trips, so they built one better. American and German automakers are selling hobbled products until they either negotiate a license from TESLA, or at least kick-start the CCS infrastructure, as Nissan did for CHAdeMO after the Blink bankruptcy.

Stepping back from an obvious need and saying "not my job" is neither a way to get promoted nor grow your market share...
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Old 01-30-2018, 07:36 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Chevy is selling a long range CCS-equipped car into a national market with nearly zero CCS stations. TESLA saw this CCS vs CHAdeMO standards war coming, and also that neither standard was adequate for highway trips, so they built one better. American and German automakers are selling hobbled products until they either negotiate a license from TESLA, or at least kick-start the CCS infrastructure, as Nissan did for CHAdeMO after the Blink bankruptcy.

Stepping back from an obvious need and saying "not my job" is neither a way to get promoted nor grow your market share...
CCS can do 350 kW. CHAdeMO 65 kW. Tesla 120 kW. Tesla is being different just to be different.

That's OK though. Telsa is about to be crushed under a wave of new EVs from automakers that actually know how to make cars. We will see in 10 years who comes out on top.

I purposely purchased by Spark EV without DC charging and don't feel that the car is "hobbled" in any way. I've charged my car at a public station twice in 18 months and that was just to get the parking spot.

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Old 01-30-2018, 07:52 PM   #19 (permalink)
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My overall point is that EVs have a higher rate of depreciation, and that hits new car buyers hard. Depreciation is the single largest cost of ownership for most people, especially for newer vehicles.
A huge portion of that depreciation is the $7500 to $10,000 tax credit that goes right into the buyer's pocket. The real selling price of a LEAF in Oregon is $20K not the $30K MSRP. In 5 years it should be worth about $10K

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We can find examples of ways that an EV or gasser is cheapest to own, but in general I still consider new EV prices to be a bit off putting for most consumers.
I agree many are. However, that is because most people only consider the purchase price not the total cost of ownership.

Prices are dropping. The 2018 Nissan Leaf goes 40% farther on a charge, is 2.5 seconds faster 0-60, and costs less than the old model.
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Old 01-30-2018, 08:17 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I purposely purchased by Spark EV without DC charging and don't feel that the car is "hobbled" in any way. I've charged my car at a public station twice in 18 months and that was just to get the parking spot.
I'm right on the fence on if I want a used leaf or Spark for my first EV (maybe Focus or i3). Leaf wins the parts availability category as they begin to hit the junk yards, but I suspect the Spark battery will far outlast the Leaf, which is the single biggest concern with EV ownership. There is a bit of a price premium on the Spark, perhaps due to better thermal management, or perhaps from looking a little better than the Leaf, or maybe better performance?

Quote:
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A huge portion of that depreciation is the $7500 to $10,000 tax credit that goes right into the buyer's pocket. The real selling price of a LEAF in Oregon is $20K not the $30K MSRP. In 5 years it should be worth about $10K

I agree many are. However, that is because most people only consider the purchase price not the total cost of ownership.

Prices are dropping. The 2018 Nissan Leaf goes 40% farther on a charge, is 2.5 seconds faster 0-60, and costs less than the old model.
The general public is financially illiterate. They would rather pay less up front, but spend more over time than to spend more up front and pay less over time. Secondly, the average household doesn't have the requisite $7,500 tax liability to fully benefit from the federal credit. It's essentially a subsidy for the wealthy. I don't even pay my fair share with my $66k salary, or have $7,500 in tax liability, which is a very comfortable living.

The EV price tipping point is very near, as you point out with the gen II Leaf. Within the next couple years, the typical consumer will be more inclined to purchase a lower priced EV that has the performance of higher priced gassers.

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