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Old 04-19-2021, 09:48 AM   #61 (permalink)
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The US case law firmly recognizes grandfathering.

Existing cars could be made expensive via taxation/insurance but can’t actually be banned outright

The expectation is that plain gas cars will slowly decline and age out in certain areas after 2030 but nothing is stopping used cars


A more pressing issue is that we are under 10 years of proven oil for the first time.

It is very possible gas might become excessively expensive long term.

On the bright side that should hasten the demise of disposable plastic since glass becomes attractive.

Also makes CNG more attractive

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Old 04-19-2021, 10:04 AM   #62 (permalink)
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I think a lot of the controversy from a practical and economical standpoint is the assumption that suddenly you won't be able to drive your ICEV and the other is that there is a lack of charging infrastructure.

Although I often dream of getting a different vehicle, it would be best to just keep the cars I have for as long as possible. That could be another 10 or 20 years or more. There's no reason I can't do that that I know of. And in 10 or 20 years there'll still be plenty of used ICEV's to buy if I decide to go that route.

But there's also a chance there'll be much more charging infrastructure. So an EV may seem like a practical option by that time.

Getting back on topic...
To me it makes sense to make EV's that are super efficient built around the Aptera concept. If most outlets in the USA can only put out 1.4KWh per hour then we need family vehicles that can make around 10 hours of nightly charging, or 14kWh of electricity, a viable option. The Tesla Model 3 charges up some 35 miles in that amount of time IIRC. If we could triple that efficiency then a 100 miles could be obtained from a standard outlet overnight.

If you can charge up 100 miles from a standard outlet overnight, then the charging infrastructure problem just suddenly got better. For most people there wouldn't be a need to install an expensive level 2 EVSE "charger" on their home. You could just use the normal outlet that's already there, or have one installed for much less money. Apartment dwellers would have a much easier time installing a standard outlet than a 20 or 30 AMP 240V line to an expensive Electric Vehicle Service Equipment that doesn't come with the car and will be much more limited by the cord length.
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:34 PM   #63 (permalink)
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The problem with the Aptera is that it's a sub-economy car with a price tag that doesn't match. People needing such efficient transportation for financial reasons who are also willing to sacrifice utility will not be able to afford the initial purchase price.

The other demographic is diehard efficiency geeks, but that is a tiny percent of the population. Rarely do I find someone more interested in efficiency than me (1 in 10,000 maybe?), but even I won't buy this vehicle. It's extremely niche, which doesn't necessarily mean a product isn't viable, but poses extra hurdles to profitability. No economies of scale, and you've got to market to just the right people.

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A more pressing issue is that we are under 10 years of proven oil for the first time.
I hadn't heard that, or know what the implication is.

If that means reduced oil supply, the futures market would be reflecting this information right now, which would increase fossil fuel prices.

Of course, increasing futures prices also spurs development of fossil fuel extraction, which then increases supply and brings prices back down.

This is the reason why fossil fuels can't "run out". They can become so expensive that they are hardly used, but it would take hundreds of years to reach that point.

I hope I live to see peak oil, as that will mean humanity has found a cheaper way to power the planet, meaning even more prosperity for all.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:06 PM   #64 (permalink)
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The problem with the Aptera is that it's a sub-economy car with a price tag that doesn't match. People needing such efficient transportation for financial reasons who are also willing to sacrifice utility will not be able to afford the initial purchase price.

The other demographic is diehard efficiency geeks, but that is a tiny percent of the population. Rarely do I find someone more interested in efficiency than me (1 in 10,000 maybe?), but even I won't buy this vehicle. It's extremely niche, which doesn't necessarily mean a product isn't viable, but poses extra hurdles to profitability. No economies of scale, and you've got to market to just the right people.

Good arguments.

It would be a less expensive version of the VW XL1.

But it's so futuristic looking, some rich people would undoubtedly buy it as a toy regardless of drivetrain or efficiency. But that market is also tiny.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:31 PM   #65 (permalink)
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Actually, I didn't see VWs at the McMinnville airport in 1959. It was more an 80s thing. I went to Bug-Runs at the Woodburn dragstrip up into the 2010s.


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Old 04-19-2021, 03:19 PM   #66 (permalink)
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Old 04-19-2021, 03:27 PM   #67 (permalink)
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We need to be getting our carbon from the asteroid belt anyways.
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:06 PM   #68 (permalink)
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:11 PM   #69 (permalink)
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Quote:
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Rarely do I find someone more interested in efficiency than me (1 in 10,000 maybe?)
That's because fuel is cheap and plentiful.

Imagine if gasoline were suddenly 5 times the price and so many gas stations were closed down that you only knew of maybe one or two in your area, and because of that wait times are going to be terrible. But if you want to get some fuel for a decent price within a reasonable amount of time you can get a ration of it with just enough for about 30 miles per day max for all your vehicles. And if you want more at a reasonable price you need to have a proffesional install a weird contraption outside of your house, apartment, condo that will end up costing you over $1,000 just so you can get maybe a hundred or two hundred miles per day of fuel.

Well that's basically what people are faced with entering the EV market. Right now it's not a big concern since the great majority of people buying EV's are rich and don't care about the other costs because "they're saving money" somehow, or at lest they think they are.

But if the day comes that the rest of us have to start buying new or used EV's then we will likely want to be able to get more than 30 miles a day out of them. Ultra efficiency would greatly help that, especially for apartment dwellers.
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:21 PM   #70 (permalink)
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Hence the value equation of the Arcimoto or Aptera.

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