California to ban selling new gas-powered cars by 2035

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

Won't happen until oil / methane is not cheap anymore

Even in Brazil, ethanol is not competitive to gasoline in most of the country.

[RustyLugNut]

. . . is the used car market for the poor.

This California Government claims it has the disenfranchised and poor in mind and then continues to write legislation that makes it impossible to live on a poor man's wages.

Zoning laws and building codes drive up the price of real estate and pretty much ban low cost housing.

Depending on your health, your medical costs are your next biggest outlay.

Then, your transportation costs to get to your job and to function in an area that has poor public transportation services. A junker is a mandatory need. Keeping Junkers going is a necessity and the biggest cost for a DIY person is meeting the stringent state emissions test just so you can pay an ever increasing registration fee. Pretty much any ICE can be coaxed into performing into the 250k mile range before rebuilding the engine and transmission.

But, how much life will be in a used electric car when it hits the local used car lot? What will it cost? How much will it take to replace/rebuild the battery packs?

[redpoint5]

Used EVs will massively benefit low income people. They are very reliable and dirt cheap to "fill", unlike the clunkers they usually drive. Clunkers now are cheap to purchase but expensive to operate, whereas used EVs will be cheap to purchase and cheap to operate.

That said, most progressive positions work exactly in opposition to their intended purpose. Rent control, minimum wage, etc.

[RustyLugNut]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Used EVs will massively benefit low income people. They are very reliable and dirt cheap to "fill", unlike the clunkers they usually drive. Clunkers now are cheap to purchase but expensive to operate, whereas used EVs will be cheap to purchase and cheap to operate.

That said, most progressive positions work exactly in opposition to their intended purpose. Rent control, minimum wage, etc.

I help a number of my family and church members with their "clunkers". I keep looking for "cheap" electrics. These EV's are neither cheap, nor cheap to "fuel".

Most of these people live in high density housing with no ability to charge at home. The quick chargers cost more, as some have pointed out, than just fueling with gasoline.

I can find a dozen shops locally who can rebuild my old Geo Metro engine for roughly 1000 USD - installed. Same for the transmission.

Can you replace your battery pack for the same price as a common ICE rebuild?

[redpoint5]

Depends on your market. In Oregon, a EV can be had for as low as $2,000. My cost per mile is $0.02 for electricity vs about $0.1 per mile on gasoline. That's 5x cheaper.

Public charging is roughly on par on cost with gasoline, and plenty of people have access to free charging at various places of employment or stores.

EVs with active thermal management will go 15 years without needing battery replacement. That's close to the average lifespan of any vehicle. So, you buy a 5 year old EV for peanuts and then drive it for 10 years with practically no expenses.

[RustyLugNut]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Depends on your market. In Oregon, a EV can be had for as low as $2,000. My cost per mile is $0.02 for electricity vs about $0.1 per mile on gasoline. That's 5x cheaper.

Public charging is roughly on par on cost with gasoline, and plenty of people have access to free charging at various places of employment or stores.

EVs with active thermal management will go 15 years without needing battery replacement. That's close to the average lifespan of any vehicle. So, you buy a 5 year old EV for peanuts and then drive it for 10 years with practically no expenses.

There are no 2000 dollar EV's on the used market here in San Diego except . . . wait for it . . . vehicles with battery faults.

They are also not vehicles that can drive 300 miles on a charge. When your clunker is your only vehicle, you must be able to use it for not just work, but the occasional longer drive.

Free refueling at work? Sure, if you are a tech company employee. How about the laundry person? The janitor of the local church? The house cleaner? No bueno!

[redpoint5]

If I were janitor at church, I'd be plugging in while cleaning.

I'm not saying it's the perfect solution for everyone, I'm saying low income people are better served by used EVs when they can accommodate them.

Oregon has a $2,500 credit for used EVs to qualifying low/middle income purchasers. That means you can get a $4,500 used EV for ~$2k.

Prices will continue to decline as EVs continue to age, and the newer gen age into the older gen. The Bolt EV is about 4 years old now and not regarded as cutting edge any more. Leases are coming up, and GM has slashed prices to about $25k. I expect to see very good deals in a year or 2 on these 250 mile range EVs.

Just think what will be available 15 years from now when this regulation is supposedly to take effect. The EV industry in reality has only existed for 9 years so far.

[RustyLugNut]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

If I were janitor at church, I'd be plugging in while cleaning.

I'm not saying it's the perfect solution for everyone, I'm saying low income people are better served by used EVs when they can accommodate them.

Oregon has a $2,500 credit for used EVs to qualifying low/middle income purchasers. That means you can get a $4,500 used EV for ~$2k.

Prices will continue to decline as EVs continue to age, and the newer gen age into the older gen. The Bolt EV is about 4 years old now and not regarded as cutting edge any more. Leases are coming up, and GM has slashed prices to about $25k. I expect to see very good deals in a year or 2 on these 250 mile range EVs.

Just think what will be available 15 years from now when this regulation is supposedly to take effect. The EV industry in reality has only existed for 9 years so far.

But, you do live in another state. The real estate market drives our transportation problems, here in California.

I have family and friends who work in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. But, due to the high cost of living, they drive an hour or more from surrounding areas east of the metropolis they work in because housing is more affordable. Freeways are full of clunkers as people do what they have to do.

Should we see EVs selling for 2000 on the used market in the future? Maybe. Probably. Will they be economical? Could be? Will the batteries be robust and long lived? Sure. Will you be able to get a replacement battery for a 15 year old car if there is a problem? If it is a Tesla, probably not. Tesla is moving to battery integration into the chassis. Guess they will throw the car out with the battery.

But, I trust the ingenuity of the capitalist. There will probably spring up a cottage industry to re-manufacture electric vehicles the way we do ICEs today.

[redpoint5]

I expect the EVs on the road today are disposable. Once the battery is no longer useful, the car has little value.

Who knows about the future.

I'd have no worries buying a 5 year old Bolt though and driving it for a decade.

[jjackstone]

There are already aftermarket battery suppliers for some of the EV's. Most of the one's I have seen remove good packs from damaged cars for resale, but some are actually repairing packs by replacing bad modules with a module from removed packs. It's not difficult to load test a pack or a module to see if the two pieces are compatible. I wonder if it would be worthwhile to by say an older Nissan Leaf with a nearly dead battery pack and then have a new pack installed. Last time I checked new Leaf packs were going for around $6000. If you were able to get the car for $2 or$3000, you might have a useful EV that would last 10 years for under $10000. Obvious there would be a few maintenance issues but any more a thousand a year for a car is pretty good in my book.

JJ