Car prices are still insane.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by JSH

It isn't surprising. The sedan's death is a combination of fashion as redpoint said, demographics - the country is aging and most old people don't want to stoop down into low vehicles, and regulations - new side impact tests have a higher barrier that hits cars along to bottom of the greenhouse.

The death of cheap vehicles is a sign of the times as well. The auto industry is going through the biggest change since the 70's with the current shift to electric vehicles. In the US alone companies have committed to a bit over $100 billion in capital spending for new battery and EV assembly plants. Unprofitable and low profit cars and trims are on the chopping block because of opportunity cost. Automakers must maximum profit from every assembly line to pay for the billions they have to spend to completely redesign and retool their business.

It isn't just the bottom end that is dying. Mercedes recently announced they are killing off most of their coupes and convertibles. They are dropping from 33 models to 14.

And when I say automakers need to maximize profit it is important to know that making cars is a very capital intensive business with low profit margins. The UAW likes to talk about huge profits but the profits aren't huge. GM made $9 billion last year - true. Sounds huge until you realize that is only a 6% net profit margin and guaranteed savings bonds paid more last year.

GM stock owners LOST 42% on their investment last year which erased the 41% they made in 2021. The business of business is making money - it is that simple. Automakers used to pay out dividends to make up for the flat stock price but those are mostly gone.

Even a lot of sedans and coupes are becoming SUV's. The Toyota Corolla Cross, the Mustang Mach-e.

Things are changing. I don't like everything that's changing, but it's not the end of the world.

I will always have fond memories of my little cars: The 1972 VW Super Beetle, the 1985 VW Golf and the 1993 Mazda 323. Just don't tell me I have to like my practical, but mother-ship-like, Toyota Avalon.

Although, admittedly nostalgia can make one forget the disadvantages that one had suffered from their old choices. Adjusting the valves on my first car, the 1951 Plymouth Cranbrook, was quite a pain. But at least I can brag that I learned to drive in a car with a three on the tree.

My question is how do I go about facing the future with more optimism? I've always had weird likings. EV's were cool to me back when it was a DIY community and the talk was about what chemistries and what types of motors and inverters were best for what situations. Sitting down and configuring what batteries and what motor and adapters and inverter to get, figuring out what kind of acceleration, and crunching the numbers to get a rough estimate of range, was great fun back in the day. Not that I was ever serious about doing a DIY EV conversion.

But now, although the way Tesla uses a motor that uses both permanent magnets as well as sychronous reluctance is quite interesting, it's like they gloss over all that with "EV, it does 0-60mph in [this many] seconds." That, and every Tesla is basically the same as every other Tesla.

Hopefully with more EV's on the horizon there will be more diversity and contrast between options that make things more interesting. Or I just need to figure out something else that makes car ownership more than just a chore. Or just accept that cars are tools, buy whatever is the most practical, this isn't an amusement park.

[redpoint5]

Mercedes should shrink their product line to zero. Maybe they make good cargo trucks?

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

My question is how do I go about facing the future with more optimism? I've always had weird likings. EV's were cool to me back when it was a DIY community and the talk was about what chemistries and what types of motors and inverters were best for what situations. Sitting down and configuring what batteries and what motor and adapters and inverter to get, figuring out what kind of acceleration, and crunching the numbers to get a rough estimate of range, was great fun back in the day.

I modified a PowerWheel Jeep, and that was a lot of fun, and set me back less than $100 ($250 with the cost of the Jeep).

But now, although the way Tesla uses a motor that uses both permanent magnets as well as sychronous reluctance is quite interesting, it's like they gloss over all that with "EV, it does 0-60mph in [this many] seconds."

Advertising hasn't talked about technical details of products since probably the 60's when commercials lasted more than 20 seconds. The last time I saw a commercial talking about tech specs on a vehicle is to mention "hemi" as if anyone knows what that means. I suppose truck commercials still like to mention payload, as if consumers care about that other than to brag.

Hopefully with more EV's on the horizon there will be more diversity and contrast between options that make things more interesting. Or I just need to figure out something else that makes car ownership more than just a chore. Or just accept that cars are tools, buy whatever is the most practical, this isn't an amusement park.

Cars were interesting because of how insanely complex the drivetrain is. EVs massively reduce that complexity and flatten out the differences in character. They are increasingly becoming commoditized, and the industry will tend to arrive at similar areas of optimization.

People with time and money (retired folks) are who wrench on old cars as a hobby. I'm going to treat vehicles as an appliance now when I don't have much time.

I'm contemplating EV go-karting as a hobby when the kids are old enough to participate. Basically my hobbies need to include children at this stage, so that's the limiting criteria. I take the canoe out to the lake with kids, or go on truck drives and listen to the radio.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Advertising hasn't talked about technical details of products since probably the 60's when commercials lasted more than 20 seconds. The last time I saw a commercial talking about tech specs on a vehicle is to mention "hemi" as if anyone knows what that means. I suppose truck commercials still like to mention payload, as if consumers care about that other than to brag.

But we do have reviewers, and now that's not just in magazines but also YouTubers.

I like videos that go over each of the pros and cons and feats of ICE technology, such as direct injection, valve timing, combustion chamber and intake/exhaust manifold designs, piston shapes, rod and crankshaft geometry, etc. etc. There are a few videos like that about modern EV's, but the typical EV reviewer just glazes over everything as "it's an EV, so it's better. You know, lower center of gravity and instant torque and no tailpipe emissions." And everything else in an EV review is usually about costs vs features and range and charging speeds, not how the engineers were able to make a car that reaches those numbers.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Cars were interesting because of how insanely complex the drivetrain is. EVs massively reduce that complexity and flatten out the differences in character. They are increasingly becoming commoditized, and the industry will tend to arrive at similar areas of optimization.

That may be true. And TBH, the practicality of a vehicle trumps how exactly a certain valve or bearing makes the car get 0.3% better mileage or performance than the competition.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

People with time and money (retired folks) are who wrench on old cars as a hobby. I'm going to treat vehicles as an appliance now when I don't have much time.

I'm contemplating EV go-karting as a hobby when the kids are old enough to participate. Basically my hobbies need to include children at this stage, so that's the limiting criteria. I take the canoe out to the lake with kids, or go on truck drives and listen to the radio.

You're a good person. Spending time with the kids has always been extremely important to my wife and me. Skating, biking, boating, snowmobiling, swiming, fishing, football. It's all been fun. Those days are starting to become history. Hopefully we'll get some grandkids to play with not too far in the future.

[freebeard]

About the JDRL - NHRA Camping World Drag Racing Series
The NHRA Summit Racing Jr. Drag Racing League offers kids ages 5-17 a chance to race half-scale dragsters in a controlled environment at many of NHRA's 130 member tracks throughout the...

They run at Woodburn drag strip.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Mercedes should shrink their product line to zero.

Why? They are very nice cars and are selling quite well. The E-Class wagon is about the perfect vehicle. I'm cheap so I'm not going to buy one but they are nice to rent on occasion.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Maybe they make good cargo trucks?

Daimler Truck is the largest truck company in the world so they must be doing something right. The truck division was spun off into a completely separate company about 2 years ago.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by JSH

GM stock owners LOST 42% on their investment last year which erased the 41% they made in 2021.

Maybe when Mary Barra retires, or gets fired if shareholders get really upset about their losses, GM will be great again... I still believe GM shouldn't have retreated from Western Europe and some RHD markets like it retreated from 2018 to 2020.

[freebeard]

This video explains why the UAW will go the way of the Dodo:

Tesla’s Master Class In Modular Assembly - Autoline On The Road

Today's word is Poka-yoke

Poka-yoke
Poka-yoke is a Japanese term that means "mistake-proofing" or "error prevention". A poka-yoke is any mechanism in a process that helps an equipment operator avoid mistakes and defects by preventing, correcting, or drawing attention to human errors as they occur. The concept was formalized, and the term adopted, by Shigeo Shingo as part of the Toyota Production System. Wikipedia

This goes right along with Elon's fascination with cat girls?

[redpoint5]

That's the video I had in mind when envisioning the elimination of complainy humans that make mistakes and complain.

The ultimate poka-yoke is elimination of machines that complain and make mistakes.

[Piotrsko]

Poka-yoke actually isn't efficiency, it just slows the error producing rework process. That's where the efficiencies occur, you don't have to remove stuff, fix it and return it off sequence to the assembly line.

Not relevant to once a day products, but really important to a car assembly line

[JSH]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Maybe when Mary Barra retires, or gets fired if shareholders get really upset about their losses, GM will be great again... I still believe GM shouldn't have retreated from Western Europe and some RHD markets like it retreated from 2018 to 2020.

Barra is far overpaid like all US CEOs but I can't really point to anything that she should be doing differently. She has been pulling out of unprofitable markets, cutting unprofitable models and trims, investing in a common and flexible platform for EVs to prepare for the future. Cadillac has been doing fantastically well and growing over the last 4-5 years. GM's profit margins have about doubled under her leadership but the market wants more.

The only big thing GM should do is drop GMC and Buick in the USA. It should have been done back in 2009 under bankruptcy when it would have been free.
Now GM would have to pay billions to buy back the dealerships. Maybe she can kill off just Buick. Buick used to exist so that Buick / GMC dealership would have cars to sell but now there is nothing the Buick sells that GMC doesn't sell under a different model name. Buick is a completely redundant brand in the USA.

GM lost money in Europe and RHD markets for decades - billions down the drain. Eventually it makes sense to admit defeat and focus on profitable markets.

What GM needs to do now is look for a good partner because they are too small to compete on their own against competitors double the size.