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Old 12-30-2017, 12:07 AM   #681 (permalink)
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:35 PM   #682 (permalink)
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So for NY state 33 GW average electrical consumption summer and 24 GW winter we need 100GW of wind operating at 25% to get us through the winter weeks of Zero sun and another 60GW of solar PV when it will work at 25% in the summer for the increased consumption and decreased wind.
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We have adequate wind. On shore at the East end of Lake Erie and the Tug Hill Platue East of Lake Ontario and near shore off of Long Island.
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We can then use Lake Erie as hydro storage to fill in demand via Niagara Falls when we need it.
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How much land does this take? Modern Turbines at 30% are about 1 Watt/ meter^2.
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non-utility electical generation The Energy Advocate
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100,000 km^2. Which is a square that is 182 km on a side for each of the three wind areas
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How much money?
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The biggest (cheapest) turbines are somewhere around $1.50/ Watt.
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$150 Billion
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Solar farms are still way over $2/ Watt installed in my area. And another 400km^2 land for the panels.
So another $120 Billion for the solar pv.
How do we do this. Private development of wind and solar has very few takers in NY even with 55% combined rebates and a $0.03 feed in tariff.
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NY, USA solar farms in December. 42*N. Record cold this year. They have probably looked about like this 25 of the last 30 days. It really hasn't snowed that much here. Maybe 12 inches for the month. But it has been cold. 20F average? 15F? -1F right now. Most types of heat require electricity for water or fan circulation. This will eventually have to change back to radiant, gravity, or steam. And biofuel.
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This is what the sun looks like at 2:30 in December.
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Old 12-31-2017, 10:26 PM   #683 (permalink)
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Solar panels are pretty useless in Maine where I am from.

Here in new Mexico I use electricity free ventless wall heater for a good portion of heating.
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:57 AM   #684 (permalink)
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Pictures are worth a thousand words. Germany has been the world leader in RE build out. But it needs at least another 10X solar and 3X wind. Solar pv is so intermittent in the winter in Northern Latitudes. Narrow spikes. There is so little area under the graph making energy. No conceivable amount of batteries will flatten that out. And the wind didn't blow for ten days in a row. Distributed solar pv in winter plus batteries will be better than nothing to provide very basic needs for a very thrifty house (if it uses radiant heat from biomass), but it cannot power a civilization. Not this one. The USA is at 1% electrical uptake from solar. Keep in mind that is showing only electricity consumption. We will eventually need to replace all fossil energy which will be seasonally 3-5X that amount. Plus another 30% growth in 30 years. And develope effective liquid fuel conversion to power farm and mining machinery.
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All of this technology works fine if the population was 1/5th and people grew most of their own food/ biomass heat. And could stay home from work when there is a shortage of energy/ migrate in winter. And could share wealth more evenly. We have to find a de-growth economy that works while most "jobs" shift to energy transformation and sustainable food production without artificial fertilizers.
 
Old 01-02-2018, 12:24 PM   #685 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
Solar panels are pretty useless in Maine where I am from.

Here in new Mexico I use electricity free ventless wall heater for a good portion of heating.
Solar works just fine in Germany - which is at the same latitude as Alaska. Maine is much farther south than Alaska.
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Old 01-02-2018, 12:51 PM   #686 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard View Post
Solar works just fine in Germany - which is at the same latitude as Alaska. Maine is much farther south than Alaska.
You apparently didn't see the graphic above.
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Old 01-02-2018, 02:08 PM   #687 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler
...it cannot power a civilization. Not this one.
There's your problem. The 100x leverage they got by drilling for oil that didn't just bubble up out of the ground fast enough produced an infrastructure no longer fit for purpose. Bucky Fuller told us this in the 1970s (if not the 1920s ).

Quote:
All of this technology works fine if the population was 1/5th and people grew most of their own food/ biomass heat. And [et cetera]
Double the efficiency of the collective effort, and we can sustain the present population at an even higher standard.
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Old 01-02-2018, 02:59 PM   #688 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Tele man View Post
Always "counting" on mankind's ingenuity to be able solve future problems is shortsighted as eventually mankind's stupidity will certainly intercede.
It will continue to get better and better for most people until it gets much worse. My prediction is that the "much worse" will come in the form of deliberate human action more so than an indeliberate consequence.

In the long term, the solar system will figure out how to destroy us if bad actors haven't already done so long before then.
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Old 01-02-2018, 03:12 PM   #689 (permalink)
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Since 2002 growth is already over for 90% of Americans. There are more US jobs in the service industry (waitress/ bartenders) than manufacturing.
 
Old 01-02-2018, 03:32 PM   #690 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Since 2002 growth is already over for 90% of Americans. There are more US jobs in the service industry (waitress/ bartenders) than manufacturing.
Growth isn't defined by manufacturing output alone. While GDP per capita has some shortcomings, it's one of the best indicators of financial well-being for a country. It's been on the rise since 2009, and generally trending upwards since the founding of the country.



Would most people rather live with what they had in 2002, or with what they have today? People are generally better off today than at any other point in history. There is no reason to expect that trend to decline in the near-term.

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