EV Price Discussion

[redpoint5]

I would have no need for charging at any shop, and expect most others don't too. The point of an EV is you charge it at home while you sleep. There's little incentive for a shop to install a charger.

Auto manufacturers likewise have no incentive to build and maintain charging infrastructure. EV sales are 1% of total, and nobody is making money on them.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I would have no need for charging at any shop, and expect most others don't too. The point of an EV is you charge it at home while you sleep. There's little incentive for a shop to install a charger.

Auto manufacturers likewise have no incentive to build and maintain charging infrastructure. EV sales are 1% of total, and nobody is making money on them.

Auto manufacturers likewise had no incentive to build and maintain road and highway infrastructure in 1896.Auto sales in 1896 were less than 1% of total transportation sales,and nobody was making money on them.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by aerohead

Auto manufacturers likewise had no incentive to build and maintain road and highway infrastructure in 1896.Auto sales in 1896 were less than 1% of total transportation sales,and nobody was making money on them.

Easy to predict history, and nearly impossible to predict the future. My assessment of charging infrastructure incentive is based on what's going on today, not 20 years into the future. I've got little chance of getting that one right.

Auto manufacturers still don't own petrol stations, so I don't know why they'd have an interest in charging stations. Petrol stations generally make very meager profit from the fuel itself, and similarly dispensing electricity isn't profitable.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Easy to predict history, and nearly impossible to predict the future. My assessment of charging infrastructure incentive is based on what's going on today, not 20 years into the future. I've got little chance of getting that one right.

It is not hard to see what's happening in Norway. Or California. Or the Netherlands for that matter. Right now.

Tesla is building a Supercharger station 150 meters from my company. Big red tubes pop up from the earth. Bricklayers were rebricking the parking lot to allow for extra width; 2 charge points take up the space of 3 previous parking spot. The company next door is also wiring up for several new charging points at their parking lot. Ours already has them, both outside and in the garage.

Half the cars sold in Norway are EV's or plug-ins.
If you buy a gas car there you take a risk - will it hold value? Can you still get gas 10 years from now?
Norway is already past the tipping point for EVs.

In 20 years the sale of gasoline cars will already have been banned, if a ban for that is needed at all. Chances are gas stations will be very rare by then.

[redpoint5]

Perhaps I need to provide more disclaimers in my comments. I was specifically referring to auto manufacturers and businesses having little incentive to invest in charging infrastructure in the USA.

As I've said before, Norway has a population roughly the size of South Carolina, which is the 23rd most populous state in the US out of 50. What South Carolina is doing makes little difference.

I anticipate EV adoption to steadily increase, and for some businesses to figure out how to turn a profit from dispensing electricity, but it's not going to happen quickly (in the US).

Why would a shop provide charging infrastructure, and who would use it? I would charge my car at home where electricity is cheap and my schedule isn't dictated by the rate at which my battery charges. Some shops offer charging to boost their environmental image, but it's mostly a gimmick. Same with businesses that provide charging perks to their employees.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Half the cars sold in Norway are EV's or plug-ins.

This EV adoption rate is based on government policy that makes electric cars cheaper than gas powered cars. It is not based on the fundamental economics of gas vs electric. Take the government's hand off the scale and the balance would switch right back to gas cars.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

If you buy a gas car there you take a risk - will it hold value?

Yes, because even if there was limited demand in Norway the car can be sold to the rest of the EU which will still be happily using gasoline cars.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Can you still get gas 10 years from now?

Of course. Cars are durable goods that last for decades. There a millions in use and nobody is going to through away a functioning car.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

In 20 years the sale of gasoline cars will already have been banned

Speculation of what government will do in 20 years is just than - speculation.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Why would a shop provide charging infrastructure, and who would use it? I would charge my car at home where electricity is cheap and my schedule isn't dictated by the rate at which my battery charges. Some shops offer charging to boost their environmental image, but it's mostly a gimmick. Same with businesses that provide charging perks to their employees.

There is a tipping point where enough EVs are on the road that it makes sense to try to attract those customers to your business. More and more chargers are popping up around Portland and it isn't just for a green image. The most recently built hotel in Hillsboro has 6 chargers. That is an incentive for EV owners to stay at their hotel. Likewise chargers are showing up at newly build condos and apartments because that will attract EV owners (which for the most part are high-income renters you want to attract) The electricity used is peanuts compared to rents that are $2K plus a month.

I would say the US West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington) is getting close to that tipping point where you could own an EV and travel within those states without fear of running out of juice. The interior of the country is way behind and will take years or maybe decades to catch up.

[Snax]

Originally Posted by JSH

This EV adoption rate is based on government policy that makes electric cars cheaper than gas powered cars. It is not based on the fundamental economics of gas vs electric. Take the government's hand off the scale and the balance would switch right back to gas cars.

Careful with that last allegation. Consider that much of the reason oil prices are so low is precisely because of such incentives. The real cost of oil is much higher, albeit more difficult to pin down.

In contrast, I know exactly what it costs to produce a kW from my solar array. No wars are fought over the sun or canals under constant threat to stop it's rays from getting here.

But that's a really complicated and ugly tangent to follow.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Snax

Careful with that last allegation. Consider that much of the reason oil prices are so low is precisely because of such incentives. The real cost of oil is much higher, albeit more difficult to pin down.

In contrast, I know exactly what it costs to produce a kW from my solar array. No wars are fought over the sun or canals under constant threat to stop it's rays from getting here.

But that's a really complicated and ugly tangent to follow.

True but the average person only cares about how much money comes directly out of their pocket.

Gas cars in Norway are charged a 25% VAT, EVs are charged 0%.

An e-Golf in Norway is $3100 less expensive than a base model gas Golf. In the USA the e-Golf is $8650 more than a base model gas Golf.

[freebeard]

The average person knows how much they pay for a gallon of gas but doesn't know how much they pay for a kilowatt-hour of electricity.