EV Price Discussion

[Snax]

I'd be cautious about relying on the Model 3 sales boost to hold out for this next year. Many of those were pre-ordered the previous year and actually paid in 2018.

[redpoint5]

Hybrid sales in the US have been trending downward.

EV sales are likely to follow suit after federal tax incentives expire.

My belief is widespread EV adoption is extremely likely, but at a much slower pace than many (including myself) would hope. My WAG is 20 years before EVs outsell ICE.

[RedDevil]

We have yet to see the base model 3, and the model Y. Those will generate even more sales, enticing customers that can't or won't buy the currently available models.
Then, German car makers are gearing up for EV production.
There will be a lot more to choose from in a year or two.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

I think you have to reveal the source of your numbers, because I don't think that's correct.

I already revealed my source. It is your link

https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...ne#gs.js6XDsFV

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Tesla makes its own batteries and has more than tripled its production capacity last year. If they can do that, why can't other auto makers?

Other automakers are focused on making money.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

We have yet to see the base model 3, and the model Y. Those will generate even more sales, enticing customers that can't or won't buy the currently available models.
Then, German car makers are gearing up for EV production.
There will be a lot more to choose from in a year or two.

In Tesla's 4Q earnings call Musk said Model 3 sales in the USA will decline in 2019 as Tesla diverts US built cars to China and the EU. He also said that Model Y production won't start until the end of 2020. (This makes it the 3rd time he has pushed out his start of production date. It was 2018, then 2019, now 2020.)

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Hybrid sales in the US have been trending downward.

EV sales are likely to follow suit after federal tax incentives expire.

My belief is widespread EV adoption is extremely likely, but at a much slower pace than many (including myself) would hope. My WAG is 20 years before EVs outsell ICE.

Hybrid sales are only trending down if you claim plug in hybrids are EVs.

[redpoint5]

Regardless, EVs are getting more expensive, not less.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Regardless, EVs are getting more expensive, not less.

The Leaf isn’t. Nissan almost doubled the range and dropped the price to $30K.

[redpoint5]

All used EVs are appreciating in value. All Tesla's jumped up in effective price when the federal tax credit was cut in half. The Chevy Bolt will effectively be $3750 more expensive in April. Nissan is close behind in the credit phase out.

We've got some compliance EVs coming from the Koreans.

EVs will get cheaper eventually, but after they get more expensive.

[Snax]

Well one reason EV prices have not dropped much is because of fast pace of improvements. As JSH points out, the LEAF is just a better car now without the increase.

Forgive me for referring to the i3 so much (it's what I know most about), but it has not dropped in new pricing either because BMW has bumped the range twice in the last 2 production years, going from a 22kWh to 33kWh, and now 44kWh battery for 2019. They have also abandoned the range extender option for all but the US market going forward.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Regardless, EVs are getting more expensive, not less.

Meh, be careful what you ask for