EV Price Discussion

[redpoint5]

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

Two statements there:

Since August EV sales have soared

No question, they have.

... and hybrid sales dipped.

You have shown absolutely no data to support this claim.


You did show EVs outsold plug-in hybrids in January 2019. (10,430 to 6,469) but conveniently left out the conventional hybrids.

Wait one moment.
You made a claim I had to prove was wrong.
Then you tried to prove me wrong, but you misquoted.
Why don't you try and prove the actual quote wrong then? Too inconvenient?

Actually, you confirmed that non-plugin hybrid sales are trending down:

Originally Posted by JSH

Hybrid sales are only trending down if you claim plug in hybrids are EVs.

Would you care to provide data that proves that?
If you could even make it specific for August to December 2018, that would be great.

[rmay635703]

https://priuschat.com/threads/open-l...7#post-2841542

https://priuschat.com/threads/toyota...sponse.202942/

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/d...4741/overview/


The generalizations of nationwide behavior are accurate and truthful no need to argue

EV Sales up

Traditional Hybrid sales down

Truth


You only need to spend a few days at Priuschat to know Hybrid sales are way down, heck the V and soon C are going to the chopping block without a refresh for the next generation.


Where things get murky is when you look at individual states
Wisconsin and MO have had EV sales callapse , Wisconsin has been selling in the single digits monthly since the EV registration tax doubled or tripled (depending on the type and county)
But other areas are increasing dramatically, especially California.

PHEVs are in an odd place, Toyota only wants to sell them in the Northeast despite them being more popular in many areas compared to the standard Prius, other Plug in hybrids are suffering a similar fate in that they are more or less compliance cars with limited availability outside carb.

GMs PHEV interest fades with the tax credit and the huge bump in general sales is due to folks buying ASAP to avoid the tax credit horizon.

Not sure what we will see post credit.


I was hoping for more general purpose PHEVs but carb opposes this which means more compliance cars that aren’t really 50 state available and fewer PHEVs. Stating PHEVs are increasing the “hybrid” sales to stable numbers is faulty logic PHEVs are going the way of the dodo, even though they are a very valid option for most of the country.

[Snax]

Originally Posted by JSH

Incentives are a funny thing, changing all the time. Yes, some OEMs are phasing out of the Federal Tax Credit. However, other credits are popping up. The State of Oregon just added a $2500 to $5000 EV rebate (yes, rebate - you get the full amount regardless of the taxes you owe).

I literally just made $2500 reading this thread. I was not aware the Oregon incentive applied to used vehicles. (But I did already receive my EWEB charger $300 rebate.)

THANK YOU!

[redpoint5]

It's crazy that Toyota is throwing their credits away with small batteries in the Prius Prime.

They should have done what Chevy did and build the smallest battery that qualifies for the full credit amount. By doing so, the government more than subsidizes the cost of the battery, which is the most expensive component of plug-in vehicles.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

It's crazy that Toyota is throwing their credits away with small batteries in the Prius Prime.

They should have done what Chevy did and build the smallest battery that qualifies for the full credit amount. By doing so, the government more than subsidizes the cost of the battery, which is the most expensive component of plug-in vehicles.

If you read the Prime tear down reports a large unused gap between the normal spare tire area and the battery exists and the battery sits up to high to have the normal flat full size storage area.

It appears the Prime was designed for a 6.5kwhr battery.

The insiders state that dealers wanted a larger battery and Toyota caved to market pressure and shoehorned in a larger battery while wasting space and loosing a seat.


Toyota is very battery adverse and is very worried about loosing R&D and is being overly cautious on entering the BEV market.
They are building a joint large battery plant but they are glacial on making a dedicated plug in platform, both the PIP and now Prime are afterthoughts shoehorned into an existing platform.
The Primes future is murky, Toyota is basically silent on their future CHR Bev.

Read the John1904a posts if you want the Toyota spin on why its good not to offer a larger battery.

Ah well, I’m told Toyota will have something compelling and plug in a few years from now.

[redpoint5]

I've read the Prime is a very good plug-in, but they seriously need to game our incentives better. If they couldn't build the minimum size battery to maximize the federal tax credit, they should have built the largest battery that doesn't qualify for the credit and stuck with that until they could seriously take advantage.

I'm still not clear how to interpret the IRS code. One source says the original Prius Plug-in with a 4.5 kWh battery qualifies for the minimum $2,500 credit, even though the code says that 5 kWh is minimum.

the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500.

Then it's not clear if that is usable capacity, or total capacity. The Prius plug-in has a 4.4 kWh battery, but only about 3 kWh usable.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

The generalizations of nationwide behavior are accurate and truthful no need to argue

EV Sales up

Traditional Hybrid sales down

Truth

I'll wait for the data. What we do know:

Hybrid sales increased 6.8% from 2016 to 2017. (2016 = 346,948 / 2017 = 370,685)
PHEV sales increase 24.6% from 2016 to 2017 (2016 = 72,837 / 2017 =90,774)
Total hybrid sales increased 9.9% (2016 419,785 / 2017 = 461,459)

In the first 1/2 of 2018
PHEV sales increased 32.3% (2017 = 42,198 / 2018 = 55,817)
HEV sales decreased 7.8% (2017 = 177,384 / 2018 = 163,497
Total Hybrids sales down 0.1% (2017 = 219,582 / 2018 / 219,314)

We also know Honda debuted the Insight in late June 2018 and sold 12,513 of them for the year. Not bad of a sedan.

We also know that Toyota Prius sales are cratering - killed off by sales of the RAV4 hybrid and Highlander Hybrid.

We also know OEM's aren't giving up on the segment: Honda is introducing a CR-V Hybrid and Subaru is bring back the Crosstrek hybrid.

Originally Posted by rmay635703

I was hoping for more general purpose PHEVs but carb opposes this which means more compliance cars that aren’t really 50 state available and fewer PHEVs. Stating PHEVs are increasing the “hybrid” sales to stable numbers is faulty logic PHEVs are going the way of the dodo, even though they are a very valid option for most of the country.

I'm not sure where you get that idea.

PHEV models available:
2015 = 13
2016 = 17
2017 = 25
2018 = 27

Links:
HEV: https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10301
plug in: https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567
2018 first half: https://www.hybridcars.com/june-2018...les-dashboard/

[rmay635703]

Hybrid sales peaked at 500,000 units in 2013

It has been downhill with fragmentation and upmarket pricing since then.

Including Hybridized vehicles in the green washed “high end” markets is somewhat unfair to include in with the people mover hybrid category.

Further including a large number of sub 5000 unit yearly model sales into the metric shows the compliance nature taking root.

In 2013 which remains the peak sales hev year had around 60% affordable hybrids in the mix and very high end units were rare.

In 2016 only about 45% of hybrids sold are affordable with many low volume high cost units in the mix.


So The 22mpg high cost hybrids are not really sold for fuel economy and skew the metric in a deceiving direction


I would argue strongly a 500,000 annual sales market with only 5 models is much healthier and affordable than a 450,000 annual sales market with 22 models

[JSH]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

Hybrid sales peaked at 500,000 units in 2013

It has been downhill with fragmentation and upmarket pricing since then.

Including Hybridized vehicles in the green washed “high end” markets is somewhat unfair to include in with the people mover hybrid category.

Downhill from 2013 to 2016 and then on the climb since then. There was a similar decline from 2007 to 2011.

Hybrids are hybrids. You can call high-end vehicle "green washing" all you like but fuel is still being saved. Adding 20% better mpg to a 20 mpg car / truck saves way more fuel than to a 40 mpg car.

Mercedes is bringing their 48V hybrids to vehicle across their model range from the S class down to the C Class. They are replacing V8's with I6's and V6's with I4's. Saving fuel while maintaining HP and torque. Fiat Chrysler is doing something similar with their eTorque hybrids in the RAM and Jeep brands. Similar systems are coming to VW, Volvo, and PSA products: https://www.autonews.com/article/201...diesel-decline

I expect 48V hybrid systems to become standard across the board in the coming decade. When automakers talk about "electrifying" their entire model range this is what they are talking about.


If we are talking affordability what is affordable?

I can't think of a single EV that applies. 100% "green washing" in that product class. The Model 3 makes up 58% of total EV sales in the USA with an average transaction price of $60K in the 3rd quarter The Model S and X add another 22% to total EV sales with even higher prices.

BTW, according to InsideEVs a total of 239,103 EVs were sold in 2018