EV Price Discussion

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

All used EVs are appreciating in value. All Tesla's jumped up in effective price when the federal tax credit was cut in half. The Chevy Bolt will effectively be $3750 more expensive in April. Nissan is close behind in the credit phase out.

Incentives are a funny thing, changing all the time. Yes, some OEMs are phasing out of the Federal Tax Credit. However, other credits are popping up. The State of Oregon just added a $2500 to $5000 EV rebate (yes, rebate - you get the full amount regardless of the taxes you owe). Portland General Electric just added a $3000 rebate on a 2018 or 2019 Nissan Leaf. So today I could get a new Leaf for:

$29,990 MSRP
- $7,500 Federal Tax Credit
- $2,500 State Rebate
- $3,000 PGE Rebate
$16,990

That is less than the 3 year old Volts I've been looking at and only a little bit more than an off-lease Leaf.

The Koreans have some compliance EVs and they have the Hyundai Kona with a 258 mile range for about $37K (minus $10K in rebates / credits)

Current Oregon Rebates: https://goelectric.oregon.gov/incentives-rebates/

[redpoint5]

Oh! Didn't know about the PGE rebate. I'll have to look into that. Maybe a new car is in my future. I really want to double-dip and take the $2,500 modest income rebate from Oregon but still qualify for the full $7,500 federal credit. My parents are poor enough for the extra $2,500 from Oregon, but I'm wealthy enough for the federal $7,500. Too bad there isn't a way to share means to game the system. I'd be sharing the vehicle with my parents anyhow.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Oh! Didn't know about the PGE rebate. I'll have to look into that. Maybe a new car is in my future. I really want to double-dip and take the $2,500 modest income rebate from Oregon but still qualify for the full $7,500 federal credit. My parents are poor enough for the extra $2,500 from Oregon, but I'm wealthy enough for the federal $7,500. Too bad there isn't a way to share means to game the system. I'd be sharing the vehicle with my parents anyhow.

The Oregon low / moderate income rebate can be applied to used or new vehicles.

In my area the income cap is:

$74,236 - Family of 1
$82,051 - Family of 2
$89,865 - Family of 3
$97,680 - Family of 4

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

I already revealed my source. It is your link

https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...ne#gs.js6XDsFV

Pooh... The one dated August 2018. I put that in for the non-time relevant information there. Since August EV sales soared and hybrid sales dipped. Which the other links show.

Originally Posted by JSH

Other automakers are focused on making money.

Tesla is increasing its inventory, which adds much more to its value than the profits in the last 2 quarters did. And they raised their cash reserve by $0.7 billion to $3.7 billion last quarter. Tesla's value is growing fast.
More assets, more cash, and profit. They make money while focusing on building great EVs.

Maybe other automakers should focus on Tesla's patents for a change. They can be used without license costs now, for the benefit of the world.

Originally Posted by JSH

In Tesla's 4Q earnings call Musk said Model 3 sales in the USA will decline in 2019 as Tesla diverts US built cars to China and the EU. He also said that Model Y production won't start until the end of 2020. (This makes it the 3rd time he has pushed out his start of production date. It was 2018, then 2019, now 2020.)

So? Circumstances have changed. Tesla focused on the US to maximize use of the expiring tax credit, now it is time to sell the high spec Model 3's in other markets. Plus, someone started a trade war and Tesla had to change plans and now takes production to China. It will change the timeline, not the end result.
FWIK pilot production will start around June 2020, volume production by November.

I challenge you to find a quote on model Y production to start in 2018.
All I see is how 'by the end of 2019' changed to 'early 2020' around May last year. (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-y-p...usk-1825729809)

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Pooh... The one dated August 2018. I put that in for the non-time relevant information there. Since August EV sales soared and hybrid sales dipped. Which the other links show.

1. Your second link (Veloz) makes no mention of hybrid cars at all.
2. Like your first link they are adding plug-in hybrids to the electric car total.

Note: They say they are getting their hybrid numbers from hybridcars.com but the most recent sales data available there is from June 2018. It shows hybrid sales up 1.9% year over year.

[RedDevil]

This one is up to date: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
16,899 plugin vehicles sold in January 2019; more than 10,000 of them are BEV.

Hybrid sales may be up by 1.9% over a year.
BEV sales are up by 130% in the same period. (see also CleanTechnica)

Can it get any crazier? Why not:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/201...i-car-figures/

Electric car registrations accelerate by 680% in January

New figures show that electric vehicle registrations increased significantly in January, with a total of 811 cars sold - a massive increase of 680% on January 2018.

In Ireland, where the new car market is about 11,000 units monthly.
Which shows how quickly things can change from practically absent to substantial.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Hybrid sales may be up by 1.9% over a year.
Plugin sales (including BEV) almost doubled in the same period.
BEV sales are up by way over 100% in the same period.

That should be clear?

You claimed hybrid sales have dipped. Nothing you have posted shows that.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Snax

Forgive me for referring to the i3 so much (it's what I know most about), but it has not dropped in new pricing either because BMW has bumped the range twice in the last 2 production years...

Or maybe they have not dropped the price because people who buy BMWs expect to pay more for the "status" of owning a BMW?

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

You claimed hybrid sales have dipped. Nothing you have posted shows that.

I would not have said that? That wouldn't be true. At least, not over a full year.

But I wrote:

Originally Posted by RedDevil

... Since August EV sales soared and hybrid sales dipped.

And that is true.
If you quote me, don't leave essential parts off.

Not to be pedantic, but what triggered me in the first place was this:

Originally Posted by JSH

Hybrids have always outsold EVs. Even in California (the state with the highest sales of EVs) hybrids have double the sales of EVs. (EVs 3.3% / hybrids 6.9%)

Which isn't true anymore. Sales in the second half of 2018 completely turned it around.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

... Since August EV sales soared and hybrid sales dipped.

Two statements there:

Since August EV sales have soared

No question, they have.

... and hybrid sales dipped.

You have shown absolutely no data to support this claim.


You did show EVs outsold plug-in hybrids in January 2019. (10,430 to 6,469) but conveniently left out the conventional hybrids.