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Old 01-23-2019, 11:42 AM   #11 (permalink)
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contractors

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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I care, but yeah, I'm not expecting a stampede to EVs. I'm predicting a more gradual adoption rate than many anticipate due to the gradual rate of improving tech/cutting costs.

Contractors should jump all over these since they can depreciate the purchase cost, and EVs will be way more reliable and need much less maintenance, and zero refuelling. That will keep the trucks working rather than working for the truck.
I see a lot of evidence for that conclusion.
We have area auto retailers who specialize in 'workin'' the tax code,such that a contractor's purchase of a 'work' vehicle nets a handsome tax write-down over the amortization period.
Stick a magnetic sign on the door,and Voila! a tax write-off.
Even the home' 220-VAC charger and install fee will be a write-off.
KWhs won't see price elasticity as with gas and diesel,so it won't matter what OPEC does to production/pricing.
Even if we have another energy war,it won't show up as a 'war premium' at the electric meter.
No annual 'emissions' testing.
Depreciated used EV trucks will become available to those lower on the food chain.
The schism is already in the marketplace with cars.
Analysts say that EVs will have price parity with ICE by 2025,so we'll have a 'plurality' in the market by then.
Skepticism about the supremacy of ICE will probably ensue,as growing numbers of consumers see the technological superiority of EVs,beginning the decline and eventual overthrow of the Holy Roamin' Combustion Church.
2041 might be a reasonable date for the 'extinction' of ICE.

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Old 01-23-2019, 11:58 AM   #12 (permalink)
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concept

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Originally Posted by mpg_numbers_guy View Post
I should've said, "waits skeptically."

It's definitely an interesting concept.
Elon Musk is doing it solely because of climate change.
I'm not acquainted with Rivian's motivation,but their business model is much like Tesla.Start up market ($65,000),use the profits to underwrite cost savings over the short term,and end up with an affordable unit for sale to the masses.
Retired GIs are paying his kind of money for pickups,just to get to the the golf course and donut store,so this kind of price point is already acceptable to those with the discretionary income.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:01 PM   #13 (permalink)
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They've already benchmarked the TESLA and know what it will cost to do the modifications.Their analysts will also know the numbers on Rivian!
There isnít Tesla or Rivian truck the benchmark. The Tesla Truck exists only as a sketch and the Rivian as a concept years from production. The closest EV truck to production is the Workhorse W15. They are claiming production will start next month but have missed production dates in the past.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:40 PM   #14 (permalink)
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ICE will not be able to compete against the performance of an EV,even in range.
Don't see how you could possibly claim that. Sure, there are a lot of cases (contractors &c) where the pickup doesn't get driven very far in a day (and a big plus would be having a 120V inverter for power tools), but you just aren't going to get more than a couple hundred miles of range, especially if you're towing a load.
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:46 PM   #15 (permalink)
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benchmark

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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
There isnít Tesla or Rivian truck the benchmark. The Tesla Truck exists only as a sketch and the Rivian as a concept years from production. The closest EV truck to production is the Workhorse W15. They are claiming production will start next month but have missed production dates in the past.
Just a look at the renderings is enough to guestimate the build cost,on a dollars/lb basis.
Your car was built inside a computer before any tooling was made,or an assembly line constructed.
All the automakers bought a Tesla and tore it apart to see what made it tick,and how to do end runs around patents.Design,tooling,and manufacture is reverse-engineered from the autopsy.
I've seen this firsthand.However,since Elon Musk has gifted mankind with his proprietary information,they won't have to concern themselves with patents and infringement.
Rivian will build the naughty bits just like Tesla has.And at a lot less cost,as most of the R&D is gratis.Same for all makers.
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:56 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jamesqf View Post
Don't see how you could possibly claim that. Sure, there are a lot of cases (contractors &c) where the pickup doesn't get driven very far in a day (and a big plus would be having a 120V inverter for power tools), but you just aren't going to get more than a couple hundred miles of range, especially if you're towing a load.
All else being equal, ICE cannot match the power,torque,acceleration,handling,velocity,load,t owing,passing,or 'fuel economy' of an EV.
Come 2025 ICE trucks will have no cost advantage over EV.
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Old 01-23-2019, 04:28 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
All else being equal, ICE cannot match the power,torque,acceleration,handling,velocity,load,t owing,passing,or 'fuel economy' of an EV.
Come 2025 ICE trucks will have no cost advantage over EV.
Here's hoping that you are right!
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Old 01-23-2019, 05:09 PM   #18 (permalink)
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hoping

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Here's hoping that you are right!
The physics and thermodynamics seems to be stacked in the EV's favor.
Overall horsepower is kinda moot when you have the torque of an electric motor.
You're not going to out-pull it.
You won't out-accelerate an EV.
You won't beat their center of gravity
You can't win on aerodynamics.
Rolling resistance is a wash.
All-wheel-drive /torque-vectoring is already off-the-shelf EV technology.
A flat floor is a hard act to follow.Roomier inside.Better space utilization.
Noise level.
Zero fuel price volatility
Refuel at home.
Next year is Tesla's 600-mile range vehicle.They have megawatt packs now.
Rivian is talking 500-miles of range if memory serves me.
With 1/3rd the BSFC of ICE,there's not a diesel or gas truck that can touch the towing mpg'e of an EV.
You won't have to pull the cab off the chassis to do a tuneup as with ICE trucks nowadays.
No foreign fuel.Whose the patriot now?
Zero-carbon capability.Try that with pistons!
It's an interesting development
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Old 01-23-2019, 08:31 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
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The physics and thermodynamics seems to be stacked in the EV's favor. ...

... snip ...

It's an interesting development
Agreed with all ...

but ... at least for the near future ... it doesn't appear to make sense to outfit the F150 with enough battery to reproduce the gasser range. My F150 will do 1100 km, 690 miles, on the highway with economy mode and cruise enabled. Towing a 5000 lb boat the truck range drops to about half that. I do that 2 times a year, so I can deal with charging multiple times for that trip.

Optimizing for battery size and weight .. is the challenge I see in the near future. OR .. convenient and high-powered charging that I won't be getting here (middle of nowhere Canada) for another 20 years ...OR maybe a Tesla battery as the bed of my trailer. I would not rely on electric charging infrastructure ... many promises but nothing delivered so far

If we can get the range and refueling problems solved ... and there is progress being made ... I am cautiously optimistic.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:46 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I'd still not hold my breath for an entirely electric full-size truck to become commercially successful. A simplified version of that pancake engine fitted to some hybrid trucks and a range-extender (eventually based on a microturbine) still makes more sense.

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