It's all over but for the sweating?

[Arragonis]

A simple model, which seems to work better than the super dooper expensive ones.

Guy Callendar vs the GCMs « Climate Audit

[freebeard]

Are you OK?

[Arragonis]

Could lose some weight maybe, but fine otherwise

[TheEnemy]

Dang it got quiet all of a sudden, was it something I said, or everything I said?

And no one was willing to take me up on my offer of explaining the physics behind the model I built.

[Arragonis]

If you are willing to post it (or even private PM or email) I'll take a look. MS Office is my spreadsheet style tool of choice but I could roll with OO for this.

[TheEnemy]

I just found a couple of mistakes, I'll post the base equations and how I came about what I got.

Temperature radiated = 0.9*0.000,000,056,704*T^4
where 0.9 is the accepted radiated percent of earth at our temperature range.
0.000,000,056,704 is a constant
T is the temperature on the Kelvin scale.

Examples at 0C/274.15K average earth radiates 288.276 w/m^2
at 12.12C/286.27K = 342.74 w/m^2
at 16.12C/290.27K = 362.297 w/m^2
at 40C/314.15K/104F = 497.055 w/m^2

Energy absorbed by earth is approx. 0.7*TSI/4
Where 0.7 is the percentage of energy absorbed by earth (varies significantly by region and temperature)
TSI is the Total Solar Irradiance (currently over 1361w/m^2)
The /4 is due to converting from the surface area of a circle (what the sun sees) to the surface area of a sphere.

[Occasionally6]

As the amount of heat trapped and radiated depends on temperature, it is affected by how heat is moved around within the atmosphere, oceans and across the Earth's surface, and by altitude. You can't use averages.

I prefer to simply trust the professionals.

In terms of action, I think this guy has it correct:

http://paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chro...le-begins.html

[Arragonis]

There are lots of examples of amateurs outdoing professionals in this field.

[freebeard]

...amateurs outdoing professionals...

Here's an example; although I'm not sure which he is, he's fronting a crowd of 125,000 amateurs.

4MIN News September 27, 2013: They Blame You

50 seconds into today's news, look at the orders of magnitude increase in Cosmic radiation and tell yourself 'it might be error'. I'll be watching to see if the Agenda 21 propaganda push he predicts, will happen.

[Arragonis]

I would suspect an instrument failure - it has happened before even in published data which then is tidied up later using other data.

I was thinking more like this error in HadCRUT discovered by someone who is a software guy, not a climate scientist.