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Old 09-23-2013, 04:43 AM   #1091 (permalink)
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A simple model, which seems to work better than the super dooper expensive ones.

Guy Callendar vs the GCMs Climate Audit


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Old 09-23-2013, 02:58 PM   #1092 (permalink)
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Old 09-23-2013, 03:53 PM   #1093 (permalink)
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Could lose some weight maybe, but fine otherwise
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Old 09-26-2013, 02:45 PM   #1094 (permalink)
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Dang it got quiet all of a sudden, was it something I said, or everything I said?

And no one was willing to take me up on my offer of explaining the physics behind the model I built.
 
Old 09-26-2013, 02:51 PM   #1095 (permalink)
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If you are willing to post it (or even private PM or email) I'll take a look. MS Office is my spreadsheet style tool of choice but I could roll with OO for this.
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Old 09-26-2013, 03:48 PM   #1096 (permalink)
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I just found a couple of mistakes, I'll post the base equations and how I came about what I got.

Temperature radiated = 0.9*0.000,000,056,704*T^4
where 0.9 is the accepted radiated percent of earth at our temperature range.
0.000,000,056,704 is a constant
T is the temperature on the Kelvin scale.

Examples at 0C/274.15K average earth radiates 288.276 w/m^2
at 12.12C/286.27K = 342.74 w/m^2
at 16.12C/290.27K = 362.297 w/m^2
at 40C/314.15K/104F = 497.055 w/m^2

Energy absorbed by earth is approx. 0.7*TSI/4
Where 0.7 is the percentage of energy absorbed by earth (varies significantly by region and temperature)
TSI is the Total Solar Irradiance (currently over 1361w/m^2)
The /4 is due to converting from the surface area of a circle (what the sun sees) to the surface area of a sphere.
 
Old 09-26-2013, 07:55 PM   #1097 (permalink)
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As the amount of heat trapped and radiated depends on temperature, it is affected by how heat is moved around within the atmosphere, oceans and across the Earth's surface, and by altitude. You can't use averages.

I prefer to simply trust the professionals.

In terms of action, I think this guy has it correct:

http://paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chro...le-begins.html

Last edited by Occasionally6; 09-26-2013 at 08:10 PM..
 
Old 09-27-2013, 12:16 PM   #1098 (permalink)
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There are lots of examples of amateurs outdoing professionals in this field.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:05 PM   #1099 (permalink)
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Quote:
...amateurs outdoing professionals...
Here's an example; although I'm not sure which he is, he's fronting a crowd of 125,000 amateurs.

4MIN News September 27, 2013: They Blame You

50 seconds into today's news, look at the orders of magnitude increase in Cosmic radiation and tell yourself 'it might be error'. I'll be watching to see if the Agenda 21 propaganda push he predicts, will happen.
 
Old 09-27-2013, 03:29 PM   #1100 (permalink)
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I would suspect an instrument failure - it has happened before even in published data which then is tidied up later using other data.

I was thinking more like this error in HadCRUT discovered by someone who is a software guy, not a climate scientist.

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