It's all over but for the sweating?

[NachtRitter]

I guess I'm not understanding the problem... The German blog is comparing charts of two different types of models... emissions vs concentration... why is so shocking that one type of model comes out with a 0.9*C difference after ~85 years vs another type of model?

I'm also not clear what you're trying to get at... that policy should be set based on the lowest error bar of the lowest emission or lowest concentration model? That doesn't make any more sense than setting policy on the highest error bar of the highest model (~6.5*C).

[gone-ot]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

I got it from here, which links to here (German). It also asks why the (predicted) temp rise is less but the (predicted) sea level rise has been increased.

...because more people are pissing & moaning over spilt ale, causing the Themes to rise, which pushes up the Atlantic (wink,wink)?

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by NachtRitter

I guess I'm not understanding the problem... The German blog is comparing charts of two different types of models... emissions vs concentration... why is so shocking that one type of model comes out with a 0.9*C difference after ~85 years vs another type of model?

I'm also not clear what you're trying to get at... that policy should be set based on the lowest error bar of the lowest emission or lowest concentration model? That doesn't make any more sense than setting policy on the highest error bar of the highest model (~6.5*C).

Not sure where you get that. They are comparing IPCC forecasts.

As for policy maybe we need to get the above sorted first. Then there is a debate on prevention vs. adaption - assuming there is a problem at all in the first case. At the lower end estimates it us pretty much as before and no real problem.

The IPCC says there is no extreme weather problem, little temp issue and some sea level rise which is unsupported by the evidence.

The world is fine. Protect nature, help others and enjoy your time in it.

[NachtRitter]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

Not sure where you get that. They are comparing IPCC forecasts.

From the charts that were highlighted in the article you linked:


The legend in the chart on the left indicates A2, A1B, etc which (as I understand it) is from the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

The legend on the chart on the right indicates RCP2.6, RCP8.5 which (as I understand it) is from AR5 and is a Representative Concentration Pathway data set used to run a model (Representative Concentration Pathways - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

Was there some expectation stated somewhere that the B1 scenario of emissions would provide the exact same results as the RCP2.6 pathway of concentrations?

[NeilBlanchard]

"I'm often asked whether I believe in global warming. I now just reply with a question: Do you believe in gravity?"

- Neil deGrasse Tyson


Saying that since it is cold in the winter, that proves that global warming doesn't exist, is like saying that since it is dark at night, the sun doesn't exist.

[gone-ot]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

"I'm often asked whether I believe in global warming. I now just reply with a question: Do you believe in gravity?"

- Neil deGrasse Tyson


Saying that since it is cold in the winter, that proves that global warming doesn't exist, is like saying that since it is dark at night, the sun doesn't exist.

Well, the sun exisits, but its sunlight doesn't exist for those 10-12 hours it's on the farside of the earth (wink,wink).

...and, tongue-in-cheek, the only gravity I believe in is the "...gravity of the moment or situation..."

[NeilBlanchard]

One does not "believe" or "not believe" in science. It doesn't work that way. Gravity exists whether or not one "believes" in it, and the same applies to all other areas of science.

When the climate gets warmer, it doesn't mean that it still can't be cold during the winter.

[CFECO]

And if it was warmer in the past than it is now, it doesn't necessarily mean, it is all "Man's Fault", requiring the Government to force some into poverty.

[TheEnemy]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

"I'm often asked whether I believe in global warming. I now just reply with a question: Do you believe in gravity?"

- Neil deGrasse Tyson


Saying that since it is cold in the winter, that proves that global warming doesn't exist, is like saying that since it is dark at night, the sun doesn't exist.

So if I believe global warming is happening, but I also believe that mans contribution to it is being exagerated what does that say?

[mcrews]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

"I'm often asked whether I believe in global warming. I now just reply with a question: Do you believe in gravity?"

- Neil deGrasse Tyson


Saying that since it is cold in the winter, that proves that global warming doesn't exist, is like saying that since it is dark at night, the sun doesn't exist.

Really Neil.......
you would think after 118 pages you would have better logic......
Of course it is cold in the winter....duh. But that is not the argument.

No one....yes no one, has every said 'since it is cold in the winter.....'

and saying that make YOU look naïve (and silly.)

What is said is" Since it is COLDER this winter....." OR "since winters are getting COLDER...."

Or even, It's not man made......





But you know what someone did say.....
(CNSNews.com) – A 2007 prediction that summer in the North Pole could be
“ice-free by 2013”
that was cited by former Vice President Al Gore in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech has proven to be off… by 920,000 square miles.

In his Dec. 10, 2007 “Earth has a fever” speech, Gore referred to a prediction by U.S. climate scientist Wieslaw Maslowski that the Arctic’s summer ice could “completely disappear” by 2013 due to global warming caused by carbon emissions.


Gore said that on Sept. 21, 2007, "scientists reported with unprecedented alarm that the North Polar icecap is, in their words, 'falling off a cliff.' One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week warns that it could happen in as little as seven years, seven years from now." (and with a straight face!!!!)
- See more at: Wrong: Al Gore Predicted Arctic Summer Ice Could Disappear In 2013 | CNS News